Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Live Blogging Election Returns

(I'm adding thoughts at the bottom this time, instead of the top)

9 pm
After a very long day of volunteering as a poll watcher I am almost too exhausted to blog tonight. And yet I am so overly revved up that there is no way I can relax either. I'm close to spontaneous self-combustion.
I think the reality of a Mormon being in the White House has just hit me. It's here. It is finally happening. I can only imagine this is how African Americans felt 4 years ago.

I really want Virginia to go to Romney. Waiting on my own home state is going to kill me!!!
The first SWING STATE is in! Michigan goes to Obama. A bit disappointing, and not what I had predicted, but alas, it is done.

The House goes GOP majority.
I have some rude in your face things in my head that I will not vocalize to Nancy Pelosi right now.

Crap Pennsylvania looks like it is going to Obama. That's not good.

Senate is sitting at 41/41
The nightmare scenario where the electoral ties, and it goes to the house and senate, is actually feeling REAL.

Anyone else think it is hilarious that they haven't just called Utah for Romney already?

I'm going to freaking lose my mind. This is too much pressure and stress for someone so exhausted!!!!!!

10:04pET Romney 158 vs. Obama 147

John King is teasing a GOP surprise in Wisconsin!
Part of me is so sure it will be Romney. And yet... I just don't know. It's coming down to VA, NC, FL, OH. And apparently Wisconsin.
It's a good thing no one is here to see me singing "On Wisconsin" all by myself.

And now CNN is starting to say that without some huge surprises, they don't see how Romney can win. But "the Romney strategy to 270 is still in play."

My gut says VA goes to Romney. Why? Because 8 of 11 House races have gone to the Republican so far.  The Senate race is holding strong at 50/50 (between 2 former governors). Romney has a tiny lead, but my gut says he holds on to it.

I'm starting to take it personally that CNN (and no one on twitter) hasn't commented on Team Orca and Romney turn out in swing states. But I can promise you it was Team Orca making the difference in Wisconsin!!

Crap. Kaine beat Allen.

Crap, Iowa goes to Obama.
It's starting to look like 4 more years of Obama.
To someone underemployed and at times unemployed as I am, this is incredibly depressing. There is no hope.

Completely and in every way depressing.
I don't see how the economy ever recovers. And I don't see how I ever get real employment again. I really don't.

It looks like this will probably come down to 10-20 electoral votes difference. There's some degree of hope in knowing that a few states could be contested, but not a lot of it. Oh well. What can you do?

Just some thoughts/facts-

Bush won with 47.9% of popular vote- 50,456,002
Gore lost with 48.4%, or 50,999,897
Or a 543, 895 votes.

Some thoughts from a sad loser-
I'm looking over the results state by state. I'm noticing an interesting trend. But first, let me say, I'm a fan of the electoral college. I like the weighted state system because it speaks to the original intent of the country- a union of states or colonies. We were meant to be individual units, that united together, but operated independently. And so the weighted electoral system made sense.
But take a look at these figures- (note I did not include VA, FL, OH, HI, and AK in these numbers)

Romney wins 23 states, and of those 23, he won 10 with a lead of 21% or higher. He only has 2 states in the single digits. In other words, when he won, HE WON.
Georgia 8%
Kentucky 23%
Indiana 9%
South Carolina 14%
North Carolina 2%
West Virginia 27%
Alabama 22%
Missouri 11%
Tennessee 29%
Mississippi 13%
Oklahoma 24%
Arkansas 23%
Arizona 13%
Kansas 20%
Nebraska 23%
South Dakota 20%
Louisiana 20%
North Dakota 20%
Texas  18%
Wyoming 40%
Montana 10%
Utah 45%
Idaho 43%

Obama won 20 states. And of those he has 6 states with less than a 10% lead. In other words, he didn't have overwhelming wins (except in DC and Vermont).

Vermont 36%
Delaware 18%
Maine 20%
Massachussetts 20%
New Jersey 17%
Pennsylvania 6%
Connecticut 12%
DC 84%
Illinois 17%
Maryland 23%
New Hampshire 6%
Rhode Island 27%
Colorado 3%
Minnesota 3%
New Mexico 9%
Michigan 6%
New York 20%
Wisconsin 14%
California 14%
Oregon 9%

As of right now (12:45 am), Romney still has the lead in the popular vote, albeit, a razor thin lead.

I still believe in the electoral system because I am definitely pro-state. I believe in the state system. However, I am definitely more in favor of a proportional electoral college. We have a few states going to that method this year. And I do think we will see more states go to it by the next presidential campaign. Why? Well, look at these numbers.

NOTE: I'm doing this math completely exhausted and without a calculator at 1 am. It is very rough math, but I have applied it equally. And I always rounded up.
(NOTE: by the time I started these numbers there were a few more results in from VA, OH, FL)

Georgia 8%  R8, O8
Kentucky 23% R5, O3
Indiana 9% R6, O5
South Carolina 14% R5, O4
North Carolina 2% R8, O7
West Virginia 27% R3, O2
Alabama 22% R6, O3
Missouri 11% R6, O4
Tennessee 29% R7, O4
Mississippi 13% R4, O2
Oklahoma 24% R4, O3
Arkansas 23% R4, O2
Arizona 13% R6, O5
Kansas 20% R4, O2
Nebraska 23% R3, O2
South Dakota 20% R2, O1
Louisiana 20% R5, O3
North Dakota 20% R2, O1
Texas  18% R22, O16
Wyoming 40% R2, O1
Montana 10% R2, O1
Utah 45% R4, O2
Idaho 43% R3, O1
 TOTAL= 121 Romney
82 Obama

Vermont 36%  O2, R1
Delaware 18% O2, R1
Maine 20% O3, R1
Massachussetts 20% O6, R5
New Jersey 17% O8, R6
Pennsylvania 6% O11, R10
Connecticut 12% O4, R3
DC 84% O3
Illinois 17% O11, R9
Maryland 23% O6, R4
New Hampshire 6% O2, R2
Rhode Island 27% o3, R1
Colorado 3% O5, R4
Minnesota 3% O5, R5
New Mexico 9% O3, R2
Michigan 6% o8, R8
New York 20% o20, R9
Wisconsin 6% O5, R5
California 14% O23, R22
Oregon 9% O4, R3
Washington 13% O7, R5
Virginia 1% O7, R6
Ohio 1% O9, R9

Obama 157
Romney 121

Obama 229
Romney  242

Florida still outstanding, but will be about 49% for both people, bringing results to –
Obama 233
Romney 256

Alaska and Hawaii still outstanding for 7 electoral votes. Even if all 7 go to Obama, he still can't catch up.

As I finish typing this, and get ready to finally fall asleep after a very long day, President Obama has taken the lead in the popular vote by a scant margin (400,000 votes). My guess is that number will easily change again and go back in favor of Romney. After all, there's nearly 8 million people in Florida alone who aren't included in that number.

But let's say Obama takes the popular vote, it will only be by 1 or 2%, just like Romney's current (or was current) lead. This is the beauty of the electoral college- the states still have weight.
Like I said, I do believe in the idea of weighted states. But I like it because I like power belonging to the states and operating individually from each other. And even with a proportional electoral college, the states still have the power. The voice of the people is better heard, and the states are still strong.
Again, if my math is completely crazy, I blame the late hour and exhaustion. But I doubt it is too far off. I'm am sure it is slightly off though.
Just a few things to think about.
And maybe someday, when I have free time again, and I'm all caught up on sleep, I'll write out a little discourse on the call for smaller states, or mandated state sizes. And at the same time, give a compelling reason for Puerto Rico and DC statehood, and a very good argument against it (the answer to all of the above: natural resources). But there is something to be said for 90% of FL being forced to follow the political ideals of one metropolis. Same with California. Oh but see, this will bring me right back around to a proportional electoral college.
And yes, before you go there, I do realize that a proportional college would also require changing the 270 requirement.

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