Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts

Friday, May 19, 2017

Rick Santorum Warns Trump the GOP will Turn on Their Own

Normally I'm not a big Rick Santorum fan. But his warning to Trump is spot on. Glad to see a party mainstay show some backbone.
As White House lawyers begin researching impeachment procedures, former senator and Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum said Friday night the GOP is nowhere near supporting such a move, but warned President Donald Trump that "this can't continue for a whole lot longer."
Santorum voted to convict former President Bill Clinton of perjury and obstruction of justice during his impeachment trial in 1999. (Reminder- he was acquitted in the end.) Santorum believes that as of May 19, Republicans would currently oppose impeachment. But then he showed some surprising independence and backbone and cautioned that things could change dramatically if damaging revelations continue to plague the Trump administration.
"Unlike Democrats, who will never break with a president, no matter what they do -- I mean I don't care, they can find him with a smoking gun and a picture, they wouldn't break with him -- Republicans will," he warned. "So I would say this to President Trump: This can't continue for a whole lot longer."

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Utah Billboard and the Russia Investigation

This billboard perfectly explains how I feel about Chaffetz and the GOP lately.

If the GOP could waste YEARS searching for a birth certificate, they can spend at least half that time to investigate potential treason.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

A Rumble in the GOP


The GOP is having trouble in their own ranks. (Again.) 
Congressmen Walter Jones and Mark Meadows are trying to ouster Speaker of the House Boehner.

The two men told CNN that Boehner uses intimidation and coercion to get members to vote his way on legislation. 
Jones says, "No one should be intimidated for voting your conscience. If you are here to vote for the will of the Speaker and not the will of the people, you don’t need to be here."

The man has a point. Kudos to him for speaking truth. 

Meadows made a motion to vacate the chair — last attempted roughly a century ago. This motion is typically considered a privileged resolution, which means the House would hold a vote within two legislative days. Meadows, however, chose not to offer it in that form, which he said was a sign that he wanted a discussion. Whatever that means. 

Of course, we have no way of knowing if Boehner is a butthead or not. But Jones and Meadows do deserve some credit for blowing the whistle.

Now to see if their coup works. 

Source: Politico

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Do Political Gaffes Matter?

Do political gaffes matter?
I was about to say no.
But then I thought, "What would Rick Perry say?"

President Obama said on Friday that “the private sector is doing fine.” Was this "gaffe" taken out of context for cable news ratings?
Let's go to the tape and hear what he said in context-




Nope, I'm going to go with- he completely meant what he said, and he wasn't taken out of context. (As compared to, let's say, the Romney "gaffe," where he said he "likes to fire people." Watch the link, and you realize that that is only a gaffe when taken out of context. In context, I think what he said is something nearly every single American agrees with! We like being able to fire service providers who do a bad job and hire better ones!)

Now, President Obama would like us to believe he didn't mean what he said. And maybe he didn't. I mean, he only explained himself quite well for over a minute.

It's not like very specifically suggested that the people need to give more money to the government.  Because that just sounds a little bit too much like Prince John and Robin Hood, doesn't it?






Do political gaffes matter?
"You betcha."


Thursday, April 26, 2012

When Reality TV and the Virginia Governor Race Collide


First, and foremost, let's get one thing straight. I am very interested in serious Virginia state politics. And will soon seriously begin to bring up some of the state political issues on this blog.
And what I am about to say, I say seriously. But it must be mocked in the process.
 White House party crasher, and now-estranged husband of a "Real Housewife" and tabloid fodder, Tareq Salahi, wants to run for Governor of Virginia. And he says he has "huge support."
In his own words,"As a Virginia native for the last 42 years, I am troubled to see how our current political figure heads continue to waste tax payer dollars during these difficult economic times! I'm a big believer in limited government, keeping taxes, regulation and litigation low." Oh and apparently he's a Republican.
He's off to a bad start though. According to CNN, on his application to run for office he put the wrong date down for the November 5, 2013 election. His application says November 6. Or maybe he just has bad handwriting?
As of late Wednesday morning, the State Board of Elections in Virginia has not yet received a declaration of candidacy from Salahi, a board spokesman confirmed.
The candidate form is generally not filed until January 1, 2013, at the earliest, Justin Riemer, the spokesman, noted. (Source: CNN)
Just like the presidential candidates, petitions for office must be signed by 10,000 registered voters in the state with a minimum of 400 from each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.
Now, just to be fair, before I get to the mocking part, let's take a quick look at his credentials. Is he just after more fame? Or does he have a shot in politics?
First, don't be fooled by his "Real Housewives of DC" fame. He's not "DC" in the least. He lives way the heck out of DC, in Virginia wine country, in an area you cannot call DC suburbs. So no, he's not DC by nature, not that that qualifies you for anything either.
He served on the Virginia Tourism Board from 2006-2009, when then-Gov. Tim Kaine asked him to resign after the White House incident.
Before that he served on the all-powerful Virginia Winery Board, except that it isn't all that powerful or well-known in the state at all. His business background includes his family's vineyards. But rumor has it he and his wife drove the business into the ground, and the vineyard is now in bankruptcy. So yes, please, let's give this guy the password to the state's finances!
Maybe he'll be tough on crime? After all, he was very quick call for help when he thought his wife had been kidnapped. Except she had really just run off with Journey guitarist Neal Schon. But this is the state that did elect John Warner, husband of Liz Taylor, multiple times. So that may not rule him out to have a crazy, drama queen, sort of wife. And you never know, maybe soon-to-be Ex Mrs. Salahi will be the next Elizabeth Taylor. Or maybe this will save their marriage when she comes running back for the fame and prestige of being a candidate's wife.
But really, I think it might be his name that will make it tough to take him seriously. Does anyone actually know how to pronounce it? Tark? Tair-eck? Tark-ick? Sah-la-hee? Suh-lay-hee? Maybe I should have watched more Real Housewives of DC when it was still on.
Enjoy more mockery courtesy of the AC360 Ridiculist.

 

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Rick Santorum on Separation of Church and State



Former senator Rick Santorum has done it again. He's taken his inability to separate his politics from his religious beliefs to a whole new level. Last October he addressed an audience at the College of Saint Mary Magdalen in Warner, N.H., where he brought up J.F.K.’s famous 1960 address to the Greater Houston Ministerial Association. (link will take you to full transcript of JFK speech) At the time Santorum said, “Earlier in my political career, I had the opportunity to read the speech, and I almost threw up. You should read the speech.”
When Kennedy gave that speech there was a great deal of concern during the campaign season that he would be taking orders from the Vatican, or forcing Catholicism on all Americans. The speech was a major turning point in his campaign, thanks in large part to the following quote. 

“I believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute, where no Catholic prelate would tell the president (should he be Catholic) how to act, and no Protestant minister would tell his parishioners for whom to vote; where no church or church school is granted any public funds or political preference; and where no man is denied public office merely because his religion differs from the president who might appoint him or the people who might elect him."
It is a little shocking that Santorum is choosing to insult the speech, rather than echo it.

On Sunday, ABC’s George Stephanopoulos asked Santorum whether he stood by his statement last year. Santorum's response-
“The first line, first substantive line in the speech, says, ‘I believe in America where the separation of church and state is absolute.’ I don’t believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute. The idea that the church can have no influence or no involvement in the operation of the state is absolutely antithetical to the objectives and vision of our country.”
Even when referencing a famous historical speech, Santorum has a frightening habit of taking things out of context, inserting new meaning, and acting upon it. Santorum went on to say that the First Amendment
“says the free exercise of religion — that means bringing everybody, people of faith and no faith, into the public square. Kennedy for the first time articulated the vision saying, ‘No, faith is not allowed in the public square. I will keep it separate.’ Go on and read the speech. ‘I will have nothing to do with faith. I won’t consult with people of faith.’ It was an absolutist doctrine that was abhorrent at the time of 1960... To say that people of faith have no role in the public square? You bet that makes you throw up. What kind of country do we live that says only people of non-faith can come into the public square and make their case? That makes me throw up.”
Woah, wait, where did Kennedy say he would not consult with people of faith? 
To say that Kennedy was saying that people of faith have no role in the public square is an extreme stretch. What Kennedy did say was, "where no public official either requests or accepts instructions on public policy from the Pope, the National Council of Churches or any other ecclesiastical source; where no religious body seeks to impose its will directly or indirectly upon the general populace or the public acts of its officials;"

Whether conservative or liberal, Kennedy's speech is enlightened and inspiring, unless your intent and belief is that church's should have more power over the government. There is nothing in the speech that indicates that religious beliefs should be withheld from voters or activists. In fact, Kennedy bravely remarks,
"But if the time should ever come — and I do not concede any conflict to be even remotely possible — when my office would require me to either violate my conscience or violate the national interest, then I would resign the office; and I hope any conscientious public servant would do the same." 

It does not blatantly say that he would choose to follow his religious beliefs over politics, but it does allow one to interpret that he may do so, and vice versa.
It is bothersome that Santorum would find this speech so offensive and disgusting. It leaves one to question his own motives and approach, especially in light of Mitt Romney's 2008 speech that addressed religion. (full text of Romney Religion Speech). Romney's speech was compared many times to the Kennedy speech. Santorum's comments and lack of further clarification leave just enough room open for interpretation as to leave one wondering if he would put his religious ideals above the interests of the country. Or does he not see a situation where his religious beliefs may not be in the best interest of the country?
In his speech, Romney said,
"As governor, I tried to do the right as best I knew it, serving the law and answering to the Constitution. I did not confuse the particular teachings of my church with the obligations of the office and of the Constitution – and of course, I would not do so as President. I will put no doctrine of any church above the plain duties of the office and the sovereign authority of the law.
"As a young man, Lincoln described what he called America's 'political religion' – the commitment to defend the rule of law and the Constitution. When I place my hand on the Bible and take the oath of office, that oath becomes my highest promise to God. If I am fortunate to become your president, I will serve no one religion, no one group, no one cause, and no one interest. A President must serve only the common cause of the people of the United States."There are some for whom these commitments are not enough. They would prefer it if I would simply distance myself from my religion, say that it is more a tradition than my personal conviction, or disavow one or another of its precepts. That I will not do. I believe in my Mormon faith and I endeavor to live by it. My faith is the faith of my fathers – I will be true to them and to my beliefs."
Perhaps it is time for Santorum to either come out and say that yes, he is completely governed by his religious beliefs, or not. He alone has brought his religion into the campaign, and it is time for him to make it clear where he stands on the separation of church and state. Is his ultimate goal to bring in so many of his own religious and moral beliefs that the church would lead the state?

Friday, February 17, 2012

Mitt Romney May Lose Maine After All (Is Ron Paul a Hypocrite?)

Ron
Ron Paul Refuses to Concede Maine (Photo Source: Info Wars)


As if the debacle in Iowa wasn't bad enough, Maine is now bungling the system too. And Ron Paul supporters are calling for blood!

Here are the facts.

Maine is a non-binding caucus state, and allows the individual caucuses within the state to vote during the course of one week (Feb 4-11). There are roughly 505 municipalities in Maine, and 420 of them caucused. However, there is a catch. Some caucuses, for whatever reason, choose to hold their event outside of that one week. Their votes do not get counted in the early non-binding caucus. So why they hold them at all, is a bit of a mystery.
On February 11, Washington County, one of the largest caucuses, was supposed to hold their meeting. But, due to an unexpected snowstorm it got canceled and rescheduled. (Really? Maine wasn't prepared for a snowstorm? Isn't that the one thing they do in Maine?) As a result, they are now outside of the allowed window, and their caucus won't be counted in the non-binding results!
Mitt Romney won the Maine caucus with 39%, just 3 percent more than Ron Paul's 36%. That was less than 200 votes between them!
Ron Paul’s campaign called the exclusion of Washington County’s results “inexplicable.” Naturally they think that because they believe they have a stronghold in Washington County. Would they be crying foul if Romney had the lead there?
“Paul performed well throughout the state, although his campaign’s stronghold of Washington County did not report today for inexplicable reasons,” according to a statement released by the campaign.
Maybe by "inexplicable reasons," they mean the fact that Maine wasn't prepared for a snow storm??
The campaign released a scathing email to supporters, using typical Paul rhetoric.
“In Washington County – where Ron Paul was incredibly strong – the caucus was delayed until next week just so the votes wouldn’t be reported by the national media today. That’s right. A prediction of 3-4 inches – that turned into nothing more than a dusting – was enough for a local GOP official to postpone the caucuses just so the results wouldn’t be reported tonight.

“Just the votes of Washington County would have been enough to put us over the top. This is an outrage. But our campaign is in this race to win, and will stay in it to the very end."
So let's get this straight, Ron Paul's camp is mad that the county so supposedly heavy in his favor, chose not to vote, citing snow- the one great export of Maine- as their reason, knowing that their votes would not count if they didn't vote that night? Did they not care enough to make the effort to brave the elements to exercise their rights to vote? Mr. Paul, I'd hardly call those "Liberty Activists!"
Here's the thing, Ron Paul didn't do well in the 2008 elections in Washington County, and only 118 votes were cast in that county at all. Even if all 118 people showed up to caucus this time, it still wouldn't be enough for Ron Paul to win! And oh yeah, this was a non-binding caucus!
Is this even a reasonable demand? Or do we even expect Ron Paul to be reasonable anymore? No? I didn't think so.
But, popular news site Politico has obtained an email from a source inside the Maine GOP that suggests there is a recount underway. But it doesn't indicate whether or not Washington County will retroactively get included in last week's results.
Maine will hold its actual state convention where it picks its delegates in early May. The Maine GOP is currently scheduled to meet on March 10 - the Saturday after Super Tuesday - when it plans to revisit the caucus results.
At this point, all of these states holding early, non-binding primaries and caucuses, are just making a mockery out of the system. They want to look important and get the attention of the candidates, so they hold the early votes, forcing the candidates to come visit. But then, by holding the more binding convention several months later, they can be duplicitous about it, and switch their state delegates over to the current front runner and likely nominee, away from who they actually chose at the beginning. Because heaven forbid your state not be in favor with the person who actually wins! That will not help the state party get help from the national party down the road!
The non-binding votes just to curry favor and attention makes a joke out of the primary system, and the republic representation system our country is founded on. And it is shocking, that of all people, Ron Paul isn't the one championing that cause! The "Liberty Activist" that he is, who chooses to live and die by the Constitution without question, should be the one forcing states to stick to their votes and elected and ratified rules and laws! Isn't that what he stands for? Well, maybe, just not when it suits him otherwise.

Friday, February 10, 2012

President Obama just saved the GOP with his contraception policy


President Obama, accompanied by Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, announces the revamp of his contraception policy requiring religious institutions to fully pay for birth control. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh / February 10, 2012)

On Thursday, December 15, 2011 Fox News held a televised GOP debate. On that night, thousands of people complained that Fox News, without warning, brought up abortion and birth control as issues. Up till that moment, other than in a few stump speeches by the completely-ignored-at-that-point Former Senator Rick Santorum, no one had cared nor addressed the issue.
Now, just two months later, it is President Obama making this issue. President Obama directed Catholic institutions that, under Obamacare, all Catholic schools, hospitals, orphanages, nursing homes and homeless shelters must provide the "morning after" pill, contraceptives and sterilizations for all employees, Catholic and non-Catholic alike. And he gave them 18 months to comply.
The government flat out told a church what to do. The message was clear, “Do as I say, and not what it is you believe in.”
This is wrong on so many levels that it is hard to know where to begin. There is the separation of church and state, the First Amendment, a woman’s right to choose, personal accountability, and Obama’s larger than life ego to discuss.
Naturally, pro-choice advocates are doing back flips. Yeah! We can make people who are morally opposed to birth control and abortion provide them to others! And we can call it a human rights victory! Mwahahaha!

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Live Commenting on Mini Tuesday Results


If CNN and Fox News can be believed an hour before the caucuses even start, we may be in for an upset tonight. I'll be periodically live commenting throughout the night.


(You'll want to read this post from the bottom up!)

1:08 am:
To cap off the night, I just had to share my little Twitter moment of fun and fame for the night-




1:02 am- CNN gets the Colorado GOP Chair to call it live on air for Santorum. 
WOW!!
But we do not have the final exact number.
Oops, I typed that, and they gave the number immediately-
Santorum- 17,623 38%
Romney 17,169 37%
Gingrich 6,046 13%
Paul 5,745 12%
They still don't have 100% reporting in, but the state GOP says it is good. Considering the break down of proportional delegates, its more a tie. But good for Santorum! And wow, what a CRAZY upset!!

12:25 am - CNN has been warning for several hours that the results coming in from CO were not going to be a trend for the state. And they were right. Santorum had a hefty lead all night, but here at 12:25 am, we have -
Romney 37%
Santorum 35%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 13%.
Which is a serious change from the last update where Santorum had 41% and Romney was under 33%.
51% of precincts reporting. This is again another time to remember the difference between "51% of polls," 51% of votes, and 51% of precincts. The majority of precincts up to this point tonight were in very rural areas, with very small populations. All it took was one big precinct to completely overturn all the numbers.

12:05 am- An Occupyer just tried to glitter-bomb Romney, and got the full Secret Service escort out. You don't mess with the Secret Service!

Also, are we ready to declare Newt moot?


11:25 Updated Delegate Counts!
Remember, all delegates are proportional. So Santorum isn't taking all delegates from Minnesota.
Romney- 102 (picked up 2 in MN)
Gingrich - 35 (unchanged)
Paul- 17 (up 2)
Santorum- 16 (up 5)
That's actually a little sad. Santorum finally "wins" "2" states, and he's still in fourth place behind Paul who hasn't won anything.


11:25- Colorado 26% reporting: Santorum 42%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%
But everyone is pointing out that no one believes we are close to being done in Colorado.

11:15- Apparently when Obama declared Super PACs good, Santorum decided to concur. Check out this picture-

The man with the white hair standing next to Santorum while he delivers his MO and MN victory speech is none other than Foster Friess, the head of the Santorum Super PAC. He's a Wyoming based investment manager, leader of Brandywine funds, and donor to Christian causes.
(Speaking of which, where is Jim Bob Duggar?)
Considering the laws about mixing campaigns and Super PACs are pretty specific about not mixing them directly, this is an incredibly gutsy, if not stupid, move by Santorum (who has also been out campaigning with him by his side for the last few days).

10:45- Funny comment seen on Twitter-
"To be fair, Mormons have never fared well in Missouri. #ExterminationOrder"
(you probably have to be Mormon to find that funny)

10:35- Minnesota officially called for Santorum. Assuming the stats stay true, and Santorum gets 46% of MN delegates, he's won 17 delegates tonight for a grand total of 28.  That's seven delegates behind Newt.

For the record, I'm happy for Santorum. I think he deserves a win after getting denied his victory lap in Iowa.

10:10- Food for thought - Winning huge in nonbinding contests is kind of like being undefeated in preseason football.
Noteworthy- Mitt Romney won Minnesota 2008 Primary with 41% (19% lead) or 25,990 votes.

Also, CNN is sitting around surmising that we'll Romney "deploy his surrogates" to start attacking Santorum now.  Specifically, Gloria Borger said that. I like most of the "experts" on CNN, but I swear G Borger is an idiot. Other than the one week of retaliation attacks on Gingrich, Romney has stayed focused on Obama. I look forward to seeing maybe tops, 1 day of comments about Santorum (he won't attack him, just comment), and Borger being wrong.

9:50- Someone updated Wolf Blitzer! With a whopping 1% reporting in (yes 1), it is exactly what CBS said. Why we care about 1% as anything other than a novelty is behind me. They have had only 406 votes actually counted in Colorado. I'm calling CBS crazy for calling anything based on 406 votes.

9:45- Missouri (and its zero candidates) goes to Santorum with over 50% of the vote.
In CO, with 5/76 precincts reporting, CBS estimates Santorum 50%, Gingrich 21%, Romney 19%, Paul 9%. And CBS is calling it for Santorum. Notably, CNN has not called it. In fact, while I'm typing this, Wolf Blitzer just said, "We know Romney is doing VERY well in Colorado." Either he needs an update, or CBS is out in left field.

The question has been raised on Twitter a few times tonight, what happens if Santorum does win tonight. Well, the answer is easy. If he were to take a full sweep which he won't because they are all proportional states, but let's just say he did, he would still be 29 delegates behind Romney.


Newt Gingrich Needs to Shut Up and Sit Down

newt gingrich temper
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich

The last week has been extremely volatile for the GOP candidates. Dick Armey may have said it best on CNN over the weekend regarding Newt Gingrich, "I think he's digressed into a state of taking a second rate campaign and turning it into a first rate vendetta."

If the GOP nomination race were a 'Girls Gone Wild' movie, Gingrich would be the angry, drunk chick knocking over the happy, dancing girls, just to give the camera the bird.

Gingrich brought same party politics to a new low in his post-Nevada speech Saturday night. After multiple meetings with advisers, donors and supporters, (and pleas from the general public at large) to stop attacking on Mitt Romney's character with a chain saw, Gingrich held an unprecedented press conference (in lieu of the much more traditional "election night party" with supporters) where he pummeled Romney.

Gingrich is a very talented historian (and paid handsomely to be one as well). He has shown multiple times that he has an ability to recall facts, figures, and obscure references from ancient writers. And yet, he expects us to believe his version of events and that he cannot recall certain quotes of his own, when the proof is right in front of him. (Including going so far as to have edits made to the Wikipedia page about him!)

His inability to control his anger when he cannot control a situation is frightening. The accusations he will make that other people are dishonest when he, Gingrich, doesn't get his way is worse than a 4 yr old's temper tantrum to Mommy. He cannot just walk away with his head held high from any situation. He instead chooses to insult and discredit the event, in one case calling Romney's Florida win a "fundamentally dishonest campaign."

It is frightening and foretelling to revisit his candidacy announcement from August-

"No one person in the Oval Office can get this done. We Americans are going to have to talk together, work together, find solutions together, and insist on imposing those solutions on those forces that don't want to change. There are some people who don't mind if America becomes a wreck as long as they dominate the wreckage... Let's get together, look reality in the face, tell the truth, make the tough choices, and get the job done."
(Need proof he said that? Visit Newt's official YouTube page and watch "Newt Gingrich is Running for President."

Former Speaker Gingrich, it is time for you to shut up and sit down. You, and you alone, are going to divide and ruin the Republican party if you continue with the inability to be honest with yourself and others, and face defeat like a man.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

It's Not a Party Without Donald Trump. It's Not the Media Without a Circus.

The Donald at a GOP/Tea Party Event in June 2011, Photo Credit: E. McBride

Yesterday, without question, Mitt Romney made a mistake.

It was a stupid mistake, a simple case of a misplaced pause as he was speaking, and a poorly phrased sentence in a live interview.

By now we all know what he said (but I'll repeat it here for future reference when in a few weeks we can't remember what the hullabaloo was all about today)-
"I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich; they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of America, the 90%, 95% of Americans right now who are struggling, and I'll continue to take that message across the nation."
Unfortunately he made an unfortunate pause after he said, "I'm not concerned about the very poor." It instantly skyrocketed into the headlines- but not really.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Mitt vs Newt, Pragmatic vs Epic



There is an excellent article running in the Washington Post today entitled "Romney's and Gingrich's ideas mirror their personalities: Pragmatic vs. epic."
While I am at the point in time, 100% in the Romney camp, I was very vocal about supporting Gingrich for most of the fall. I was determined to stay open-minded, and to not be another Mormon choosing Romney without considering all of the candidates first. I was torn between Romney and Gingrich for a very long time, finally landing on Romney for much of the reasons stated in this article- he makes more sense. Gingrich makes radical, huge, even epic statements, and they can be attractive. But once I stopped and thought about it, I just couldn't follow his lead anymore. Whereas, it is easy to believe, even reassuring to believe, that Romney is capable of fulfilling his ideas and promises.
When Gingrich says, "I'm more of a conservative than Mitt Romney," he really isn't. He's really just more of an extremist. Their ideas and promises (minus moon colonies) are side-by-side similar. But Gingrich just takes everything beyond capable and believable, and moves it into radical extremism.


From the article-
And Romney would build more Navy ships to project American influence into the Middle East. Gingrich would build a moon colony, projecting it into outer space.



Gingrich has vowed to  overthrow the communist government in Cuba and ban embryonic stem-cell research. Romney? Merely wants Castro to go to Hell (and to try to negotiate with Cuba).


Both candidates (actually all four candidates) want to repeal Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank financial regulations. They all want to repeal the estate tax, tougher dealings with Iran, and they are all in favor of a same-sex marriage ban.

But back to the epic vs the pragmatic-
Romney’s plan would lower a corporation’s tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent. For individual taxpayers making less than $200,000 per couple, he would end taxes on capital gains and interest. The cost? Probably about $180 billion less in government revenue per year, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
But Gingrich would do far more. He would cut the corporate rate to 12.5 percent. He would eliminate all taxes on capital gains and interest. And he would allow individuals to opt out of the current tax code, giving them the option of a 15 percent “flat tax” with limited deductions.
On Social Security, the two men exhibit a similar pattern. Romney would raise the age at which future retirees could collect benefits, adding “a year or two,” he said in a debate. And he would tinker with formulas so that wealthier retirees would see their benefits grow less over time.
Gingrich, by contrast, wants to create a new kind of Social Security. He would keep the old system but allow people to opt into a separate system, in which they could keep their money in private, personal accounts. The same private-account plan has worked in Chile, Gingrich is fond of saying.
But it was installed while Chile was run by a military dictator.
 And that last line, says it all.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Gingrich is an Alinsky Republican- is that a good thing?



Recently, Newt Gingrich has been bringing up Saul Alinsky in his stumping. Which begs the question (for all of those without a master's degree in political theory) who is Saul Alinsky? The answer will pretty much solidify two facts- Newt Gingrich is a fantastic historian. There is no denying that. And, Newt Gingrich wants to be shocking, flashy, and unconventional.
Saul David Alinsky (January 30, 1909 – June 12, 1972) is widely credited as the founder of modern community organizing, now more commonly known as grassroots organizations. He also wrote the book Rules for Radicals.
He was not a well-loved man, and received as much criticism and he did praise for his pot-stirring. He brought attention to poverty and poor communities in the U.S., focusing on African American ghettos in major cities. In the 1930s, Alinsky organized the Back of the Yards neighborhood and founded the Industrial Areas Foundation in Chicago, which trained organizers and assisted in the founding of community organizations around the country.
His activities were notable and memorable. But it was his book (1971), "Rules for Radicals," that this left-wing community organizer outlined his methods for instigating change that he is best known. Many of the tactics he spoke about -- such as exploiting resentment and pitting oneself against the establishment -- are the cornerstones of Gingrich's strategy for securing the Republican presidential nomination.
A few quotes (not taken out of context) from the book-
“Lest we forget at least an over-the-shoulder acknowledgment to the very first radical: from all our legends, mythology, and history... the first radical known to man who rebelled against the establishment and did it so effectively that he at least won his own kingdom — Lucifer. (Introduction to book)
"The means-and-ends moralists, constantly obsessed with the ethics of the means used by the Have-Nots against the Haves, should search themselves as to their real political position. In fact, they are passive — but real — allies of the Haves…. The most unethical of all means is the non-use of any means... The standards of judgment must be rooted in the whys and wherefores of life as it is lived, the world as it is, not our wished-for fantasy of the world as it should be...."
"The third rule of ethics of means and ends is that in war the end justifies almost any means...."
"The seventh rule... is that generally success or failure is a mighty determinant of ethics...."
"The tenth rule... is you do what you can with what you have and clothe it with moral garments.... It involves sifting the multiple factors which combine in creating the circumstances at any given time... Who, and how many will support the action?... If weapons are needed, then are appropriate d weapons available? Availability of means determines whether you will be underground or above ground; whether you will move quickly or slowly...

Tactics in the Rules for Radicals
1. "Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have."
2. "Never go outside the expertise of your people. When an action or tactic is outside the experience of the people, the result is confusion, fear and retreat.... [and] the collapse of communication.
3. "Whenever possible, go outside the expertise of the enemy. Look for ways to increase insecurity, anxiety and uncertainty. (This happens all the time. Watch how many organizations under attack are blind-sided by seemingly irrelevant arguments that they are then forced to address.)
4. "Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules. You can kill them with this, for they can no more obey their own rules than the Christian church can live up to Christianity."
5. "Ridicule is man's most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counteract ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, which then reacts to your advantage."
6. "A good tactic is one your people enjoy."
7. "A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag. Man can sustain militant interest in any issue for only a limited time...."
8. "Keep the pressure on, with different tactics and actions, and utilize all events of the period for your purpose."
9. "The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself."
10. "The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition. It is this unceasing pressure that results in the reactions from the opposition that are essential for the success of the campaign."
11. "If you push a negative hard and deep enough, it will break through into its counterside... every positive has its negative."
12. "The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative."
13. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.

Alinsky was an unconventional, award-winning, peace activist and community mobilizer. For instance, just before he died suddenly from a heart attack at 71, he gave an interview to Playboy.
PLAYBOY: Having accepted your own mortality, do you believe in any kind of afterlife?
ALINSKY: Sometimes it seems to me that the question people should ask is not "Is there life after death?" but "Is there life after birth?" I don't know whether there's anything after this or not. I haven't seen the evidence one way or the other and I don't think anybody else has either. But I do know that man's obsession with the question comes out of his stubborn refusal to face up to his own mortality. Let's say that if there is an afterlife, and I have anything to say about it, I will unreservedly choose to go to hell.
PLAYBOY: Why?
ALINSKY: Hell would be heaven for me. All my life I've been with the have-nots. Over here, if you're a have-not, you're short of dough. If you're a have-not in hell, you're short of virtue. Once I get into hell, I'll start organizing the have-nots over there.
PLAYBOY: Why them?
ALINSKY: They're my kind of people.

There is no question about it, Newt Gingrich is a Saul Alinsky Republican. 
If you read through the tactics, you have the Gingrich playbook- ridicule, push negative, blind side, polarize, and disregard for morals. While these tactics work in starting a revolution and mobilizing a cause, it begs the question- does it have a place within a party race? Sure these tactics make it impossible for your opponent to respond and overcome. But should these tactics be used within the party? Gingrich isn't trying to mobilize a new cause. He is trying to promote himself. But his tactics of insulting and blind-siding his same party members- is that wise? Is polarizing the Republican party the right thing to do when running for the privilege to be their representative and leader? Could Alinsky tactics cause more harm than good within a party? Or is this Gingrich's motive? These tactics build up Newt, but do not help the party. Is he looking to splinter the GOP?
We have had Reagan Democrats, Rockefeller Republicans and even Goldwater Republicans. And now, Gingrich has brought us Alinsky Republicans. Is there room for a lack of decency, so much ridicule, and unethical means in the family values party?? (And how would Ronald Reagan feel about that?)

Monday, January 9, 2012

Ready or not, here's New Hampshire (polls for Jan 9)

(CLICK ON ALL IMAGES TO ENLARGE)

We'll start with New Hampshire, then go on to South Carolina, Florida, and the national polls.
In short, Mitt is going to win New Hampshire. The primaries are tomorrow, and not even another out of the blue Santorum surge can beat Romney now. Now granted, his lead has slipped from 21.3 to 19. Well, unless we stick to my decision to remove all PPP results from overall scores. (Because they continuously, week after week, are significantly different from all other polls, thereby questioning their audience and polling questions.) Which, by the way, if you do, changes the rankings a little bit- Romney (39.6), Paul (20.2), Santorum moves ahead of Huntsman to 11.2, with Huntsman 10.2. Gingrich is moving down in the polls, not up, but could still possibly be in competition in third place. Perry is still losing miserably.
Even if Santorum and Huntsman continue to enjoy a well-timed surge, they are only going to threaten Ron Paul, and not Romney.
Prediction-
1. Results are in by midnight Eastern time, and we're not up till 2:30 am watching CNN.
2. We'll miss Edith and Carol in Iowa.
3. Romney wins with a massive lead.
4. Ron Paul and Huntsman duke it out for second place.
5. Santorum takes fourth.
6. Gingrich blames Romney for everything.
7. Perry doesn't drop out although he really ought to.

So on to South Carolina, where suddenly everyone is convinced the "real winner" will be picked, based on the fact that all GOP nominees won in South Carolina- a point completely disproved previously.
Just one month ago Gingrich was in a 19 point lead 42 to Romney's 23. Today? Romney has the lead, while Newt is down in third, and not gaining. If Santorum takes third or fourth in New Hampshire, expect his second place scores to start dropping. Gingrich will drop even more if he has a dismal response in NH. Which means Paul, who is in fourth right now, is actually the person with the most to gain here. If he takes second in NH, he may move up as far as second in SC, as the Santorum bandwagon slows down.
Predictions-
too soon to say, other than Romney should take first, for an historical sweep of Iowa, NH, and SC. Perry and Huntsman, who have no real reason to think they can even eke it up to third place, will drop out. The real question is whether or not Gingrich will drop out.
A question that can be answered by looking forward to Florida-

Instead of just looking at the current numbers, it helps to understand the past numbers too. In a non-stump state like Florida voters go with the popular name. Gingrich had the name recognition vote for quite some time. But don't be completely fooled by the numbers, these numbers used to have Cain and Bachmann in them as well.
Also, ignore the RCP average. They are pulling in numbers all the way back to early December (again, during Cain's heydey). Only the Quinnipiac numbers should be taken too seriously. We need more polls before we can really understand Florida, and a lot is going to happen in the next two weeks. If Romney stays strong, he can take Florida. But if there are any Gingrich surprises and he does better than expected in NH or SC, he won't want to drop out if he's still holding on in FL. It looks like Paul has been pretty static in FL over the past year. If he hasn't taken first anywhere, and doesn't move up at all in FL, expect him to drop out after FL. And I doubt Huntsman and Perry will still be around by FL, or will drop out immediately thereafter.
Which brings us to the national polls, where the hopes of the future candidates all hang. And that my friends, is where things get interesting-

In NH the order goes- Romney, Paul, Huntsman. (Or Romney, Paul, Santorum if you go with my numbers.)
In SC the lineup is- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich
And FL- Romney, Gingrich Santorum.
And nationally- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich.
In other words, we aren't seeing a consistent series of front-runners. If you are a Romney supporter you can breathe a little easier, but not too easy. An 8 point national lead isn't that confident and stable. Of course, if he really does sweep all of the early states, the 8 points will skyrocket.
But if you are Gingrich and you are in second place in Florida (and all those beautiful delegates), and you have a fighting chance in SC, and nationally you are still fighting for second, when do you call it quits? Do you ride it out and hope that Romney slips up somehow? (After all, all the other front runners have slipped up so far.)
And if you are Santorum, you are just praying hard that you can hold on to your momentum and that the money keeps pouring in. But realistically you know that that doesn't happen.
And if you are Romney, you just stay the course, barely adjusting the sails.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Polls for the week ending December 27, 2011

2008 Iowa Caucus Results by County

We're a little delayed thanks to the holiday but here's our weekly look at the national polls.
Last week's GOP nomination polls ended on December 17, and we have new data for this week's polls!
Last week we saw Newt Gingrich drop 4%, Mitt Romney holding on with his usual 20ish percent, and it was Michele Bachmann with the surprising gain of 3.2% overtaking Rick Perry


This week Gingrich is still in the lead, but that little green line of his is still going down, while the Romney purple line inched up. Ron Paul takes a completely unimpressive third place, a good 10-14 points behind the leaders.
The data for PPP is so far off from the other polls that I looked back at their last set of numbers. The last data from them was in early November, and even then their numbers were completely different (in Gingrich's favor) from the other polls conducted that week. It makes me want to toss their numbers out personally. If we pull out the PPP numbers, Gingrich's national average is 25.75, and Romney at 25.5. And we've got ourselves a horse race!

On to "First in the Nation" Iowa Caucuses-
For the last two weeks we have seen a drastic change in numbers coming out of Iowa. Prior to the Fox News televised debates we had Gingrich 30%, Romney 20%, Paul 11%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 9%, Santorum 5%, Huntsman 2%, and Cain still in the race with 5%.
But then two days later there was news that a new Rasmussen polls had Romney in the lead at 23%.
But then Cain dropped out of the race, and the polls all changed. Gingrich dropped by 13%, Ron Paul jumped ahead 8%, and everyone saw movement all over the place.
But it is Ron Paul that needs to be looked at carefully. Last week he had only 11%, and now he's up to 19.3%.
And then after Cain dropped out, and we had the Iowa debates, we found Gingrich, Paul, and Romney are all within 2 points of each other, and Michele Bachmann started sending out emails saying she was winning Iowa


So here we are exactly one week away from the Iowa caucus, and things have changed again!
Ron Paul is in the lead! It isn't a strong lead, but he is definitely in the lead. Romney is hot on his heels, and Gingrich has dropped into no man's land. And Michele Bachmann? 5th place.
Because I'm starting to feel incredibly skeptical about any and all data out of PPP, I'm redoing the numbers, dropping their data. It moves Ron Paul to 22, and Mitt Romney to 21.5. Considering the margin of error on these polls, I'd say we don't really know who is going to win in Iowa! It will be either Ron Paul or Mitt Romney, but I think the numbers have been too volatile to really say that with any confidence.

Now for the Live Free state of New Hampshire-
Last week Romney was in the lead, but he had dropped just a skosh.
Now looking at this week's numbers-

How about we just call it for Romney now?

Monday, November 28, 2011

Picking apart the effectiveness of Union Leader endorsements

New Hampshire State Flag, Source: Wikipedia

Each presidential primary the Union-Leader newspaper endorses a candidate. The 2012 GOP candidate they have selected is Newt Gingrich. But is the Union Leader effective in picking the winning candidates?


Their past endorsements with the New Hampshire winners in blue.

Union Leader Endorsements
2008- John McCain
2004- (incumbent year for George W. Bush)
2000- Steve Forbes
1996- Pat Buchanan
1992- Pat Buchanan
1988- Pete duPont
1984- (incumbent year for Ronald Reagan)
1980- Ronald Reagan
1976- Ronald Reagan
1972- John Ashbrook
1968- Richard Nixon

The Union Leader's pick only won 4 times out of 9. But how many times did the Union Leader endorsement pick the national nomination winner? (answers above in red) 3 times out of 9 (Nixon, Reagan, McCain). Or in other words, they lost more than they won.

Just for fun let's see how many times did the New Hampshire primary picked the national nominee?

New Hampshire Primary Winners - (names in red show the national GOP nominee)
2008- John McCain
2004- (incumbent year)
2000- George W. Bush
1996- Pat Buchanan
1992- (incumbent year)
1988- George H.W. Bush
1984- (incumbent year)
1980- Ronald Reagan
1976- Ronald Reagan
1972- Gerald Ford
1968- Richard Nixon

If we take out incumbent years New Hampshire was indicative of the national winner six out of 8 times. They were only wrong about Ford beating Reagan in 1976, and Buchanan in 96.

It is also interesting to note that the GOP New Hampshire primary picked the overall national winner five times out of eight. And the Union Leader? They managed to endorse the overall national winner two times out of nine.

In short, is the Union Leader effective in influencing the winner of the New Hampshire primary? Not really, with only 30%. And they are really not effective at influencing who the national GOP nominee will be. But it is significant that the voters of New Hampshire are frequently right about who the national nominee and the national winner will be!

In other words, Gingrich shouldn't be getting too excited about winning this endorsement.


SOURCE: Red State "The Union Leader's Endorsement Record"
And several different Wikipedia pages, and the author's own memory.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Exactly what makes Herman Cain so great anyway?

Herman Cain Source: HermanCain.com

I've been thinking a lot about Herman Cain and what it is exactly that bothers me about him. And then today it hit me as I looked over the headlines.

Cain bets that he can stay a Republican front-runner without acting like one
Source: WashingtonPost.com


Herman Cain Cancels Interview After Making Unusual Requests
Source: Huffington Post

Herman Cain's Unconventional Approach
Source: WashingtonPost.com

Cain quick to play the blame game
Source: The Daily Republic

I don't trust him. He is too full of himself. He acts like he's better than everyone else- a little too much swagger if you will. It is almost as if he's running for president just to put another feather in his cap. "I'm so great, I should do this too. America will thank me for being so great!" is my impression of him. And exactly what has he done that is so great other than run one company (and I never liked their pizza much anyway)?

And let's not forget that horrible video featuring his campaign chief of staff, Mark Block.


A lot of people questioned the purpose of this ad. First of all, who does an ad featuring their chief of staff, who is a complete unknown nobody? Well, the answer to that is someone who is so cocky that they think they can pull it off. Mark Block's responses to the video only made me think he's just as full of himself as Cain in. But in the end, I did catch the unspoken message of the ad- Cain is setting himself apart from Romney specifically, and the other candidates. By sending a gritty, darker, less wholesome image than the whitewashed, squeaky clean candidates, he emerges as the alternative. From a marketing standpoint, it is fairly brilliant. But I hated it. I don't want the gritty alternative. I want the bright, shining ensign to the nations to follow, and not the guy who leaves me with questions about his motives and morals.(I am absolutely referring to the sex scandal allegations that have suddenly quieted.) Now, to figure out who that bright, shining ensign is!