Monday, November 21, 2011

11 states that will determine everything?

Jefferson Memorial, Source: E. McBride

For some reason this headline makes me want to follow it up with "one ring to rule them all!"

According to the Washington Post blog "The Fix," there are 11 states with the bulk of the control to swing Congress red or blue. (Even if they did title the blog post 10 states, they mentioned 11!)

1. Florida: It all comes down to their redistricting, and partisan gerrymandering. Republicans think they will be able to add two GOP-leaning seats on top of their 19-to-6 advantage in the state’s delegation. But the Democrats could gain back 5 or 6 seats – as many as five or six, according to their estimates. It all comes down to the courts!
2. California: The nation’s "biggest state" (WaPo's words, not mine) has only seen one congressional seat change hands in the past decade, and but the lack of change is about to change. At least three GOP-held seats are likely to go Democratic in the newly reshuffled map crafted by the state’s new citizen’s redistricting commission. But with reshuffling, other seats go in play. There's a lot at stake here!
3. Illinois: Democrats really reshuffled the map here and could win three, four or even five new seats!
4. New York: Governor Cuomo is threatening to veto a partisan-drawn map, which complicates things and puts several seals up for grabs. Upstate districts are changing, and things are about to get competitive.
5. Arizona: And the Democrats are gaining again! Party politics are really changing the new mapping process, plus a few seats are not safe for incumbents.

What are the other 5, I mean 6, states? Read the Washington Post to find out. I'm not here to plagiarize.

Considering how much Congress effects the success of a new POTUS, it will be interesting in the days and months to come to see how the congressional shifting will balance against the next president. Does anyone think Ron Paul can actually work with a liberal House, or will we see 4 years of stalemate? Does Gingrich still have enough friends on the Hill to be effective? Does Herman Cain have any experience working with the House or Senate?

Just something to think about when picking Congressmen and a new President!

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