Showing posts with label 2012 elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 elections. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Why I Care Less and Less About Trump



I'm starting to care less and less about Donald Trump running for president. Why? Precedent.
It's taken me a while to remember who his predecessors are, but thankfully, he does have them.

Donald Trump isn't the first three ring circus candidate we've seen ride a very early wave. And all of them have crash and burned before things got real.

Take Rudy Giuliani for instance. Seven years since he ran for president it's hard to remember he was ever a contender. He was fun, he was exciting, and he was an "alternative" candidate to the usual suits, not unlike Trump. But after the fun of the shock and awe wore off, people remembered what they really want in a leader, and it isn't tantalizing soundbites.

Remember in 2011 when Rick Perry was so far ahead of Mitt Romney that no one thought Romney had a prayer?

And then there is the distant memory of Ross Perot. Good old Ross Perot with his pie charts. I was still in high school back then, and a die hard Republican. After watching Perot on TV with his charts and diagrams, I couldn't wait to turn 18 just to vote for him. (Alas, I turned 18 in January, and missed my chance to vote for him by just 2 months.) I interned on Capitol Hill (as a high school intern- really, it's a thing) that year. The congressman I worked for was firmly in the Perot camp. After all, his district had some of the strongest Perot turn out. I can still remember Perot personally calling the congressman one day, and somehow I answered the phone. I put Ross Perot on hold and sprinted down the hall to grab the congressman who was on his way to a meeting. It was the only time I've ever seen him look the tiniest bit frazzled or excited as he sprinted his way back to answer that call.

Anyway, you recall how Perot ended, right? In a Clinton presidency. Perot pulled just enough of the GOP base away (18%), that Clinton beat Bush the First. (Of course, "Read my lips, no new taxes," didn't help Bush much either.)

But more importantly, Perot ended as a third party so-called Reformer candidate. Perot and Trump have a lot in common- both are wealthy businessman, and both like to speak in plain, blunt terms, and don't worry about political correctness. My biggest fear is Trump will follow Perot's footsteps, and cause more harm than good to his party in the long run.

But maybe Trump will stay true to the Republican party? Maybe he he won't. Only time will tell. But precedent tells us he probably won't stand the test of time. 

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

A Closer Look at Rick Perry



At the top you will find Rick Perry's 2016 campaign platform (copied from his website). After the break line, you can find his 2012 campaign platform. Compare and contrast.

Expanding Opportunity For All
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOWER TAXES
RETIRE THE DEBT
NATIONAL SECURITY
STOP SPECIAL INTERESTS & BIG GOVERNMENT

If we want to live up to that timeless American commitment – to expand opportunity for all who come after us – we need to do big things.

We need to grow the economy, so that every American can find work, and that those who already have work can earn more.

We need to make life more affordable, by helping Americans keep more of what they earn, and by lowering the cost of everyday expenses.

We need to retire the federal debt, in order to protect the safety net for the most vulnerable, and to ensure that our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren can enjoy the prosperity, security, and freedom that we have promised them.

We need to make America safer and stronger by rebuilding our military, and working with our allies to promote peace, prosperity, and tolerance around the world. The federal government also needs to do its constitutional duty and secure the border once and for all.

We need to end the culture of cronyism and bailouts, a culture that caters to politically- connected people and politically-connected businesses at the expense of small enterprises and average Americans.

FAMILY and LIFE
  • Under Gov. Perry’s leadership, Texas banned abortions after 20 weeks.
  • Gov. Perry signed the Women’s Right to Know Act, which requires doctors performing abortions to let women know that benefits may be available to help with medical care before, during and after childbirth. He has also signed legislation funding alternatives to abortion.
  • To ensure a woman has all the facts before making the decision to get an abortion, Gov. Perry signed a law requiring doctors to perform a sonogram prior to an abortion.
  • In 2005, Gov. Perry signed legislation requiring parental consent before a minor daughter can receive an abortion.
  • Gov. Perry championed a constitutional amendment that was supported by 76% of Texas voters defining marriage as between one man and one woman.
Health Care
  • In 2003, Texas passed tort reform legislation that is touted as a national example. The number of medical malpractice lawsuits fell by nearly 2/3 between 2003 and 2011, and Texas has licensed nearly 30,000 more doctors since the passage of this bill.
  • Rather than further straining a broken system, Gov. Perry refused to expand Medicaid under Obamacare.
  • Gov. Perry also refused to facilitate the government takeover of health care by declining to start a state-run health insurance exchange in Texas.
Economy


Texas’ economic success under Gov. Perry’s leadership is a model for a foundation that allows employers to create jobs and opportunity for hardworking families. As governor, Rick Perry focused on keeping taxes low and regulations smart and predictable, on creating a legal system that doesn’t allow for over-suing, and on ensuring Texas has a skilled and educated workforce. The results are undisputed – Texas created 1.5 million jobs from December 2007 to December 2014, and without those jobs the nation would be a net-negative 400,000 jobs.
  • Texas added over 2.2 million new jobs while Perry was governor.
  • Under Perry’s leadership, Texas created nearly 30% of all new private-sector jobs in America.
  • Texas created almost four times more jobs under Gov. Perry than the nation at large.
  • The number of women in the workplace has grown by over 1 million since Gov. Perry took office.
  • The number of jobs in the upper-middle wage quartile increased by more than 25% in Texas under Gov. Perry’s leadership, while job growth in that category has been stagnant in the rest of the country.
  • Texas is the nation’s top exporting state for the 13th year in a row, and surpassed California in 2012 to become the nation’s top high-tech exporting state.
  • Texas’ real GDP increased by more than 55% under Gov. Perry’s leadership.
  • Texas’ real per capita GDP increased by $9,250 under Gov. Perry.
(In the interest of time and space, here's the link to the rest of his record - https://rickperry.org/record_ 
------------------------------------------------------------------
Who is Rick Perry?

Campaign Issues 
CUT, BALANCE, AND GROW
CUT Taxes and Spending. BALANCE the Budget by 2020. GROW Jobs and the Economy.

FIX THE TAX CODE
  • Institute Individual Flat Income Tax Rate of 20%
  • Allow Individuals to Choose Existing Tax Code or Simple Flat Tax System
  • Preserve Deductions for Mortgage Interest, Charity, and State/Local Taxes
  • Include Standard Exemption for Individuals/Dependents of $12,500
  • Standard Exemptions and Other Deductions are Phased Out for Filers with Annual Incomes Above $500,000
Eliminate Tax on Social Security Benefits
Eliminate Tax on Dividends and Capital Gains
Eliminate Death Tax
No Federal Sales Tax or Value-Added Tax
Reduce Corporate Income Tax Rate to 20% to Enhance American Competitiveness
Eliminate Corporate Loopholes and Special-Interest Tax Breaks
Transition to a Territorial Tax System
Allow Locked-Up Overseas Capital to be Brought Back to the U.S. at a Reduced Tax Rate of 5.25%

FIX THE FEDERAL REGULATORY SYSTEM
Immediate Moratorium on All Pending Regulations
Full Audit of Every Regulation Passed Since 2008
Regulations that fail audit will be repealed
Federal Regulations Automatically Sunset Unless Congress Renews Them
Institute Annual Regulatory Budget for Each Agency
Create a Searchable Public Database with All Regulations Currently in Force

FIX SOCIAL SECURITY FOR ALL GENERATIONS OF AMERICANS
Preserve Benefits for Current and Near-Term Social Security Beneficiaries
Protect Social Security Trust Fund
Allow Younger Workers to Invest In Personal Retirement Accounts
Allow State Employees to Opt Out of Social Security
Gradually Increase Full Retirement Age to Reflect Gains in Life Expectancy
Use Price Growth to Index Benefits for Higher-Income Beneficiaries

FIX MEDICARE AND MEDICAID TO IMPROVE HEALTH CARE
-Reform Medicare to be Sustainable for the Long-Term
-Return Medicaid Responsibility to States to Increase Health Care Quality and Access

BALANCE THE BUDGET
Cap Federal Spending at 18% of GDP and Balance the Budget by 2020
Reduce Non-Defense Discretionary Spending by $100 Billion in the First Year
Demand a Balanced Budget Amendment that Does Not Raise Taxes
End Baseline Budgeting and Require Common-Sense Scoring Rules
Reform the Budget Process
  • Institute Automatic Government Shutdown Protection
  • Give Annual Budget Resolution the Force of Law
  • No More Earmarks
  • Require Emergency Spending to be Spent Only on Emergencies
  • PAYGO for New Federal Programs
-Freeze Federal Civilian Hiring and Salaries Until the Budget is Balanced
-No More Bailouts
REPEAL JOB-KILLING FEDERAL LAWS
-Repeal ObamaCare
-Repeal Onerous Sarbanes-Oxley Regulations on Small Businesses
-Repeal Dodd-Frank

Energy and Jobs-
Expand energy exploration offshore and on federal and private lands across the country by executive order, creating over 1.2 million jobs
Eliminate current and proposed activist EPA regulations from the Obama administration, saving 2.4 million jobs by 2020 and lowering projected costs by $127 billion
Reduce, rebuild, and refocus the EPA federal regulators, returning authority to the states
Level the playing field for all energy producers, removing Obama’s practice of picking winners and losers and ending the Obama war on coal and natural gas production


Professional Background
US Air Force Officer (Captain) (honorable discharge in 1977)
Farmer (cotton, milo, wheat)

Political Accomplishments
47th Governor of Texas
3 terms in the Texas House of Representatives (elected 1984), as a "Reagan Democrat," switching to Republican in his third term.
Elected as Agriculture Commissioner 1990, 1994
First Republican Lt. Governor in over 100 years.
Became Governor in 2000 when George W. Bush resigned to become President. Re-elected 3 times.

Personal Background
Eagle Scout
Texas A&M University, Animal Science (1972)
Wife, Anita, 2 children




Let's Connect! https://www.facebook.com/AuthorErinAnnMcBride http://twitter.com/erinannie https://instagram.com/erinannie17 https://www.linkedin.com/in/erinmcbride https://www.goodreads.com/erinmcbride https://www.pinterest.com/erinannie/ http://www.amazon.com/Erin-Ann-McBride/e/B0094UQZSS/

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election Day is finally here!

 

Go vote!
Good luck!
And may all Americans win!


I'll be out with "Team Orca" starting at 5:30 am! Gotta go do my duty!

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Possible Election Outcomes and What Happens if there is a Tie??

Tuesday is coming! Tuesday is coming!
And finally all of the political ads and polling calls will end!! YEAH!!!

Real Clear Politics (and several other outlets) have some useful tools for creating your own electoral results map. My best guess for the electoral college is below.I scrolled my page so that I couldn't see the electoral count total at the top, so I wouldn't be tempted to swing a state one way or the other to make my candidate win.  I was very surprised by the total number in the end. I didn't realize a tie was a possibility in the electoral college!

(I created my own electoral map on Real Clear Politics.)
Any time there was a 2 or 3 point spread, I gave it to the higher party. If there was only a 0-2 point spread I gave it to the underdog, IF and only if the chart shows an upward trend in recent weeks for the underdog. The only 2 states I really don't think anyone can call are Virginia and Colorado. I gave both to Romney using my underdog trending upward theory. And because you don't see a lot of Obama supporters in my town. I also called Nevada for Romney based on the fact that in the past it has gone Republican, except in 2008.

So what happens if there is a tie at the electoral college? Some fascinating stuff I tell you. And a strong scenario for a Romney-Biden administration.
Say what?
Oh yes.
Time for a lesson on the Founding Fathers, the Constitution, the Electoral College, and the calendar that will blow your mind.
We vote on November 6.
Sometime between Nov 6 and Dec 11 the electoral representatives gather with their states to formally declare that their state will be voting a certain way.
(Ahem, people are already raising the Ron Paul disruption flag here. I have no desire to address that right now. Maybe I will if and when there really is a tie.)
The electoral college will be held on December 17th. The votes are cast, but not counted.
The votes are formally counted on January 6.
NOTE- The new 113th Congress will swear-in on January 3rd!
Therefore it is the NEW House of Representatives that counts the votes for president. The new Senate counts the votes for VP. If there is a tie, the 12th Amendment declares that the House then gets to vote and decide who will be the president. And the Senate will vote on who gets the VP seat.
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL- The new House is expected to go overwhelmingly GOP. But the Senate is still a toss up!
And because our Founding Fathers never really cared for a majority of the popular vote of anything, the winner must win with a 2/3rds majority! And the Senate will most likely be 50/50!
Who casts the deciding vote when the Senate is all tied up?
The vice president!
You know, VP Biden.
Yes, it is possible that he would then have to cast the deciding vote for the VP. Does he vote for himself or Paul Ryan in that scenario??
Another interesting conundrum- if you are the newly elected congressperson, and you are a Republican, but your district voted for Obama for president, who do you vote for in your first ever chance to vote in the House? Your party or your people???

(Source: An Electoral College Tie Would Be an Hilarious Disaster, Huffington Post)

Now, another suggestion from my polluted late-night mind-

Sadly, we all know that New York has been suffered a lot of devastation from Hurricane Sandy. Much of the 5 boroughs are still under water and without electricity. This is likely to effect voter turnout. They are already talking about consolidating precincts (and when people don't know where to go vote they don't turn out), and how many precincts have no power.
New York is firmly in the blue right now. Obama has a 26% lead over Romney.
BUT! If voter turnout is low in the boroughs, could the rest of the state sway the overall vote?
Take a look at these older maps-



The top map is Bush/Kerry, the bottom is Obama/McCain. Both times the state went for the Democrat. But look at how much of the state is actually red! Personally I feel that the Bush/Kerry models are more accurate than the Obama/McCain models because McCain never had the support that Romney does now.
In my humble opinion, without the boroughs New York is in play. The overall vote is more important than the county results. And if few people turn out to vote in the boroughs, that can really sway things.

FACT CHECK- I am fairly certain that I am right about overall vote versus county results. I have heard that this is not the case in all states. I can't find any information to indicate I am wrong about New York.

If you pull New York out of the "strong Obama" category and move it to "leaning Romney" you really have a toss up scenario.

One more detail to note- New York has a little known law that allows them to hold a second voting day in case of a natural disaster!

(In all fairness, I applied this same logic to New Jersey which was also hard hit by the storm. However, the state overall is fairly split blue and red, but no one side of the state is more red or blue.) 

Here are a few more maps and the way these major publications are calling it-

CNN electoral map with toss-ups Obama 237, Romney 206. 

NY Times with toss-ups., Obama 243, Romney 206. The major difference between NYT and CNN is NYT is calling Nevada for Obama. 

Real Clear Politics with no toss-ups. Obama 290, Romney 248. 

All 3 publications are calling Nevada for Obama. I personally think this is a mistake. Nevada is currently Obama 50, Romney 47.3. Romney has never had the lead in Nevada, but he is on an upward trend there. I think that is a good sign he could catch up and win. And I have a hard time believing that in the end the Mormons won't come out and really win it for him. That is the only state I truly disagree with the polls on. I really do thing the rest of the toss up states are unpredictable at this point.

And more than anything, I think there is little to no chance of this election actually getting settled and answered on Tuesday night.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Live Blogging the RNC and Mitt's Speech


I haven't live blogged an event in a while! This will be fun!

11:15- I'd have to say Mitt Romney nailed it tonight. Powerful, strong, emotional, and very passionate. No more robot Mitt. Pretty dang amazing. Very very good. Loved it!!

Ok, except he kind of looks odd standing on the stage all by himself right now. Where are the balloons, Ryan, and his family?

Phew, there's Ryan. That was awkward for 5 seconds there.

Ok, NOW BRING ON THE BALLOONS.

Yeah, there they are! Finally. Now, where are the families? Strange backstage screwup going on!

11:07- Ha! What did I say? NOW he says protect religion, life, and marriage. All those same virtues he showcased with the previous speakers and videos!

LOVE IT-- "President Obama promised to begin to slow the rise of the oceans and heal the planet. MY promise...is to help you and your family."
"America, he said, had dictated to other nations. No Mr. President, America has freed other nations from dictators."

And now they are 10 minutes overtime. WOW.
11:05- Mitt is still talking. But I got distracted by shiny things right about the same point he got on to the policy stuff. Oops. Time to listen again.

11:04- and the RNC has officially gone over time! (Can someone text me the BYU score please?)
And look, I found the Clint Eastwood bit-


10:55- Mitt is really channeling his inner-Reagan tonight. Being fatherly, kind, trusting.
OMG he made a Mormon joke!! I never thought I'd see that!
Staples has got to be loving all the free press these days!
It was gutsy, but I like how Mitt just compared Bain to Apple and Steve Jobs. VERY gutsy. I expect that will get cut and edited into a negative commercial soon enough. But in context, it was good.
Every time I hear someone make the "better off than you were 4 years ago" bit, I really want to stand up and tell my story. Few people can compare with how much more worse off I am today than I was four years ago. Hey, Romney Camp, you should put me in a commercial! I'm your poster girl, right here!


10:50- "That morning there was no rose." I guarantee you that story goes down in history. Sounds like a classic, timeless romance for the ages!
I've noticed that the Romney camp isn't saying the words, "family values." Instead, they just keep talking about being a family. And they have really talked about love and marriage, rather than talk negative about other marriage issues (gay marriage, anyone?). Makes me curious if we'll see something about divorce and helping families make money so moms can stay home in a Romney presidency??

10:47- MITT FINALLY SAID MORMON!!!

10:43- Someone has already created an "InvisibleObama" twitter account. And it is pretty funny stuff. And it has 17,000 followers in less than half an hour. (Anderson Cooper will be so jealous.)
"When the world needs someone to do the really big stuff, you need an American." and "God Bless Neil Armstrong." - Awesome quotes!

10:38- Mitt's making jokes and talking about Paul Ryan. Interesting choice. Also, I like his suit.
So how long till someone starts talking about the price of Ann Romney's dress?
Hmm... multiple Cuba comments tonight. Foreshadowing perhaps?
Romney is not pulling his punches tonight. LOVE IT.
"It is what Americans deserve!" And then he has to pause for a long standing chanting ovation!

10:30- One of the best Rubio lines of the night, "Dad stood behind a bar in the back of the room all those years, so one day I could stand behind a podium in the front of a room."

10:26- Food for thought- but how the heck did the tightly run ship that is the Romney campaign just let Eastwood get away with that? Was he really allowed to go completely rogue like that? Strange. Especially right after all the touchy feely stories and videos. (But I still liked it.)

10:20- this is the first time I've actually ever listened to Rubio speak. He's much better than I expected. Now I get the hype.
"He's not a bad person. The problem is he's a bad president." Well said, Senator.

10:17- Marco Rubio, "I think I just drank Clint Eastwood's water. Thank YOU!" Awesome!

10:15- Who knew the RNC could turn into a standup routine?

10:05- Clint Eastwood is obviously not using a teleprompter. Either that, or he forgot his glasses. LOVING this ad-libbed empty chair bit. "No, I can't tell him to go do that to himself!" You know that didn't get run past the RNC!
I kinda love Eastwood right now.
I can't wait to watch this all over again in a few minutes on YouTube.
"I'm sorry, I can't do that to myself either."
Yes, that line is trending on Twitter too. AS IT SHOULD.

10:02- YES!  Eastwood's entrance does NOT disappoint!
10:00- where have all these awesome videos of Mitt been this whole time? These are great!

9:55- It is nice to see Ann Romney is as much as a natural blonde as I am.
OOH! There's a rumor on Twitter that Eastwood is a decoy. The real surprise might be W?? We shall see... any second now!
9:53- Sen. Marco Rubio's people just tweeted (because I seriously doubt he just said this standing backstage) "No matter how you feel about personally, this election is about your future, not his. "
9:51- Bebe Winans was pretty dang amazing. But you know what will be more amazing? Clint Eastwood, especially if he says, "Mr. President, GET OFF OUR LAWN!" (I wish)
9:48- of all things, my comment about Jane Edmonds is getting retweeted like crazy. go figure.
9:46- Bebe Winans- now this should be good!
9:36 Took me way too long to figure out why Olympians would be at the RNC. Duh. I get it. But where are the Fab Five Gymnasts? Left out because they aren't old enough to vote yet?
9:34- phew! I remembered I was on DVR delay. Didn't have to watch that after all!
9:32- Who the heck picked Taylor Hicks to sing? Which reminds me, did anyone catch SEVEN, the opera group that sang the national anthem? They gave me chills. It was incredible!

9:28- CNN and MSNBC didn't show this. I am so grateful someone posted this on youtube so quickly!


9:22- I like Jane Edmonds. She's got spunk. A black, liberal, democrat woman is speaking at the RNC- now that's not something you see every day!
9:20 - C-span it is!
9:14 .@cnn seriously? your forcing your pundits on us? i'd much rather hear the speakers!! we're not watching to hear the arguments. #rnc
I'm forced to change channels. Again.

9:01- that didn't last long. I'm back to CNN. I really can't stand MSNBC.

9:00- Even Anderson Cooper is talking about the sweet little couple- (from Twitter)

Extraordinarily moving talk by Ted and Pat Oparowski about how Mitt befriended their dying son. So sad and poignant.  

8:57- I was just forced to change channels away from CNN. PBS has Haley Barbour- can't stand that. And now I'm stuck with MSNBC. I may cry. 
8:55- Can't remember his name to save my life, but I recognize someone over the shoulder of Piers Morgan. 
8:51- I think the Oparowskis may have just won the election for Mitt! That was moving!
Ooh, CNN, you are making me mad. I see on Twitter there are more interesting speakers going on, and you're making me listen to Piers Morgan talk trash about Romney. RUDE! (And I was your one last fan!)
8:51- Wow. LDS, Mormon, and Mitt Romney are all trending on Twitter. 
8:45: Unrelated: My dog has the hiccups. It is incredibly distracting & alarming. Will she vomit, or won't she? More importantly, where will she?
8:30: "Pure religion is to visit the fatherless and the widows in their affliction." Grant Bennett. As a Mormon, I say he nailed it
Tagg Romney just tweeted: Cool shot of Craig speaking and Mom watching w pride.


7:30 - So who thinks we are going to see Callista Gingrich run for office soon?

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

North Carolina is Up for Grabs




CNN (who has a history of calling these things right) has moved North Carolina from the "leans Romney" category to the "toss up" category, according to a new CNN/Time Magazine/ORC International poll. 

The poll shows 48% of likely voters for Mitt Romney and 47% for President Barack Obama.
Other polls from other organizations conducted earlier this summer also indicated a close contest in North Carolina.
CNN currently shows Romney with 191 electoral votes, 237 for Obama, and 110 up for grabs!

Saturday, November 26, 2011

I read the news so you don't have to



Welcome to another edition of "I read the news, so you don't have to!" Thanksgiving weekend is a fairly slow political news weekend, while the candidates let their staffs get some sleep, and the candidates pose for family photos. Or if you are President Obama you can catch up on college basketball.

Categorized by candidate, here are a few headlines-

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich spent Thanksgiving defending his stance on immigration. Apparently the crazy old man actually thinks we should let families stay together. An ironic position for a Republican to take on the weekend we celebrate a bunch of Europeans immigrating to a new land for a better life. He told a group in immigrant heavy and friendly Florida, "I am not for amnesty for 11 million people. I’m actually not for amnesty for anyone. I’m not for a path to citizenship for any people who are out here illegally. But I am for a path to legality for those people whose ties run so deeply in America that it would truly be a tragedy to try and rip their family apart." (Source: CNN)
He also added, "I think the vast majority [of illegal immigrants] will go home and should go home and then should reapply. I do not think anybody should be eligible for citizenship. I am suggesting a certification of legality with no right to vote and no right to become an American citizen unless they go home and apply through the regular procedures back home and get in line behind everybody else who has obeyed the law and stayed back there." (Source: MSN)

Former mathematician, minister, radio talk show host, and pizza aficianado Herman "the Hermanator" Cain, was the subject of a profile piece by MSNBC but otherwise stayed out of the limelight. Warning- reading this piece gives away all the spoilers in Mr. Cain's autobiography. He's American, he's black, and he's (mostly) conservative.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann can be found attacking Gingrich on immigration. She called him <gasp> a "liberal" that supports amnesty for illegal aliens. She cited a letter, co-signed by Gingrich and 14 other conservatives and published in the Wall Street Journal in 2004, offering support for President George W. Bush’s proposal at the time for a guest-worker program. (For an updated point of view from Mr. Gingrich please see approximately 10 lines up.)
Because Mr. Gingrich has clearly changed (or do we consider this a more educated or clarified opinion?) his position on amnesty, I present him with this lovely golden flipflop award. Wear it proudly, Mr. Former Speaker.

Rick Santorum could not be found in any new national news stories. Sorry Mr. Santorum.

Rick Perry could be found in a few stories, but nothing that was actually interesting. The Des Moines Register did let us know that the Gov. Perry released a Thanksgiving web video. It is worth noting that Perry is trailing the front-runner (Gingrich this week) in Iowa by over 16 points, according to the latest polls.  And in case you were curious, in a national election, Obama would beat Perry by about 9%.

Jon Huntsman also failed to make the national news, but apparently he did speak to the New Hampshire House of Representatives. Or as the Manchester Union Leader reported it the "New Hampshire House or Representatives." Maybe they were just confused. 

Texas Congressman Ron Paul was also not to be found making any national headlines this weekend. But since I have been criticized for not covering Mr. Paul enough, here's a few facts about him. According to polls conducted by reputable national organizations, he is currently polling at his highest ever in Iowa at 13% (that is 9% behind the front runner, and puts him in 4th place. In national polls he is bringing his 8%, which is 15.8% behind the front runner, and at 5th place. He's not faring much better in New Hampshire or South Carolina either. However, if you take polls conducted among Christian home-schoolers in Iowa, he's in first place. (No, seriously.)

Which brings us to former Governor Mitt Romney. Romney was found in headlines all over the place thanks to the unhappiness from his first TV spot. Now before you go calling me biased for Mitt, let's review a few things. I, like so many others, absolutely agree that his TV spot was wrong, and he took Obama's quote on the economy completely out of context. I'm a little disappointed in straight arrow Mitt for that one. So let's see how his team is spinning and defending this foul ball.
In Slate.com we read, " The Romney campaign could have cared less."We want to engage the president," explained Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom in the spin room. "We look at him as our rival. It's all deliberate; it was all very intentional..." Romney adviser Ron Kaufman, an RNC committee member and longtime operative, simply said that the ad "worked."
Politico quoted Romney campaign strategist Stuart Stevens as saying, "It is now my goal for every ad we make to so upset the White House that they will force [White House Press Secretary Jay Carney] to go out with his light saber and do his thing." He also pointed out that Democrats have been more than willing to target his candidate in harsh terms. “These guys have attacked Romney in one form or another hundreds — yes, hundreds — of times over just the last few weeks,” Stevens said. “Everyone from multi-millionaire investment banker and brother to Ari, Rahm, to Wesley Clark to the legions of interns they have tweeting away as if they are trying to write Moby Dick by tweet every week.
The Washington Post story title even read, "Romney ad misleads its way to desired result." 
I have to admit, I'm a little disappointed in the Romney camp for intentionally misleading anyone (even if this ad only ran in a small media buy in New Hampshire). Isn't it just a little too soon for the smoke screens and mirrors? I expected a cleaner campaign from you, Governor. I get why you did it, I just wish you hadn't.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Mike Huckabee tells conservatives to prepare to back Mitt Romney

Mike
Former Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, Source: Arkansas Times

Mike Huckabee tells conservatives to prepare to back Mitt Romney and thousands of evangelical preachers suddenly yelled out, "Oh God save us from this terrible day!"
Former Governor Huckabee was asked Sunday by 77WABC New York "Investigative Radio" host Aaron Klein to comment on whether the tea party will sit out the 2012 election if former Massachusetts Gov. Romney is the Republican nominee, Huckabee responded with the following:
It would be real tragic if they stayed out because Mitt Romney may not be their first choice, but Mitt Romney every day of the week and twice on Sunday is gonna to be a much more effective president for issues that they care about than Barack Obama. And I think sometimes there is this anxiety within the Republican Party of who is the perfect candidate. The answer is: there isn't one. And so, what you find is you have to decide who can survive the process. And whoever that is-- and if it's Mitt Romney, then I think Republicans and conservatives and tea party need to get behind him and say, 'You may not be our first choice, but between you and Obama, I'll vote forty times to help get you elected.'
The anti-Romney pundits seem to be slowly admitting he's their man. Last week, the uber-conservative Ann Coulter even said in a column for Townhall Nov. 16, "Everyone knows the nominee is going to be Romney... That's not so bad if you think the most important issues in this election are defeating Obama and repealing Obamacare."

When should primary voters start focusing on voting for the person who can defeat Obama over the person who has the platform they want represented? Unfortunately, we can't all have it both ways. In my humble opinion, all conservatives need to be watching out for Ron Paul supporters. Ardent and loyal as they may be, if they insist on sticking with their man even after he loses in the primaries, they risk re-electing Obama with their protest "the candidate isn't conservative enough' votes. 

11 states that will determine everything?

Jefferson Memorial, Source: E. McBride

For some reason this headline makes me want to follow it up with "one ring to rule them all!"

According to the Washington Post blog "The Fix," there are 11 states with the bulk of the control to swing Congress red or blue. (Even if they did title the blog post 10 states, they mentioned 11!)

1. Florida: It all comes down to their redistricting, and partisan gerrymandering. Republicans think they will be able to add two GOP-leaning seats on top of their 19-to-6 advantage in the state’s delegation. But the Democrats could gain back 5 or 6 seats – as many as five or six, according to their estimates. It all comes down to the courts!
2. California: The nation’s "biggest state" (WaPo's words, not mine) has only seen one congressional seat change hands in the past decade, and but the lack of change is about to change. At least three GOP-held seats are likely to go Democratic in the newly reshuffled map crafted by the state’s new citizen’s redistricting commission. But with reshuffling, other seats go in play. There's a lot at stake here!
3. Illinois: Democrats really reshuffled the map here and could win three, four or even five new seats!
4. New York: Governor Cuomo is threatening to veto a partisan-drawn map, which complicates things and puts several seals up for grabs. Upstate districts are changing, and things are about to get competitive.
5. Arizona: And the Democrats are gaining again! Party politics are really changing the new mapping process, plus a few seats are not safe for incumbents.

What are the other 5, I mean 6, states? Read the Washington Post to find out. I'm not here to plagiarize.


Considering how much Congress effects the success of a new POTUS, it will be interesting in the days and months to come to see how the congressional shifting will balance against the next president. Does anyone think Ron Paul can actually work with a liberal House, or will we see 4 years of stalemate? Does Gingrich still have enough friends on the Hill to be effective? Does Herman Cain have any experience working with the House or Senate?

Just something to think about when picking Congressmen and a new President!