Monday, November 21, 2011

GOP 2012 Presidential Primary Polls, week of November 21

GOP 2012 presidential primary polls
(click on images to enlarge)

Comparing this week's polls to last week's polls almost requires a degree in understanding polls and how even Real Clear Politics manipulates data to make things more interesting.

For starters, RCP doesn't keep the polling outlets in the same order every week, and doesn't fully explain the changes. Last week the big focus was on the CBS News numbers that showed Cain making significant gains. It is unclear if this week CBS just didn't do a poll, or if RCP just left their data out. This week the polls in the spotlight are the ones showing major improvements for Gingrich.

So just for fun, let's focus on the CNN polls over the past few weeks.

Put into this perspective over the past 4 weeks we actually see Gingrich has made significant gains, taking most of his points from Romney. Cain started high, dropped, and has come back up, while no one else has really made much of an impact. But four weeks ago Gingrich was trailing in fifth place. Just goes to show that this race really isn't close to fixing in on a winner yet.

For another interesting comparison, look at both the graph and at the numbers to watch how Cain and Perry switch places in perfect tandem. One rises, the other falls. They need to stop going after the front runner, and go after each other. If one of them could firmly take the other one's supporters, either one of them could be a real threat to Romney and Gingrich at the front.

But that's just my completely unscientific read on the whole thing. And of course, everything will change again tomorrow after the next debate.

Source: Real Clear Politics and their awesome polls

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