Polls That Give Me No Hope

This poll gives me no hope. 

Polls (Why You Shouldn't Believe Most of What You Read)

Tonight I was stupid enough to answer the landline for an unknown number. It was a political pollster call. They said it would only take 2-3 minutes so I said I'd answer their questions.
That was the first lie they told me. (The call lasted nearly 30 minutes. I nearly hung up halfway through.)
They didn't identify who they were calling on behalf of. If they did, they said it so fast I didn't hear it. It was a loud, noisy call, the kind where you hold the phone 6 inches away from your ear so it doesn't get blasted.
The first few questions were generic- name, income, zip code, party affiliation, who did you vote for last time. They asked a few predictable questions like "If the national campaign came down to Jeb Bush v Hillary Clinton who would you vote for?"
But then they asked what month I was born in. And tada, my birth month would be answering questions just about Hillary. And this is where things got weird. And by weird, I mean so completely, inappropriately biased, that I had to decline answering a few. All of the questions were about Hillary and the email server. "The right-wing media has disseminated false information claiming there has been criminal activity. Hillary has done everything she can to be open and forthcoming about her emails, and has done nothing criminal. Does this make you 1. More Likely to Vote Hillary, 2. Somewhat Likely to Vote Hillary, 3. Somewhat Unlikely to Vote Hillary, or 4. Not at All Likely to Vote Hillary?" Uh, wait. I disagree with the statement altogether. I don't believe the right-wing media has disseminated false information, or that Hillary has been forthcoming with her emails. I can't answer that question!
There was never a question about "Do you believe anything Hillary says?"
There were similar questions about "The Republicans have painted Hillary as untrustworthy. Does this make you more or less likely to vote for a Republican?"
Uh, again, I don't agree with the statement, so I can't continue!
By the end of the phone call I realized yet again, how little you can trust a poll. I keep seeing something on Facebook about how Ben Carson beat Trump in a poll. But the truth is, he beat him by less than a tenth of point, in a poll of just 405 registered GOP Iowa caucus voters. So really, they tied, once you consider the margin of error. And Carson isn't even remotely close to Trump in any of the other polls out there.
In other words, Carson isn't really a threat to Trump. Not that I don't wish he was. I'd love to see anyone give Trump a run for his money. I'm not a big fan.
But I digress.
The point here is that you really shouldn't believe most polls. Sometime next week there will be very favorable poll results announced for Hillary. But only because the poll was so slanted in her favor, that they can't help but spin the results their way.




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49/49 Polls, polls and more polls

A last minute look at the polls released today-

CNN/ORC International poll shows a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll. That's HUGE. Not that a 49/49  result is what anyone wants...

A new Michigan poll shows Romney eeking ahead 46.86% to President Obama's 46.24%. That would swing Michigan (which in the map I posted yesterday had MI in blue) pink, with its 16 EVs. 

A new Rasmussen poll released Sunday also shows the 49/49 split. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado,   Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin. Note that they did not pull MI out of the O column. I'm going to take MI out of Obama's number and stick it in toss-up, giving us Obama 221, Romney 206, with 111 toss-ups. 

And now there's 49 percent support for Obama among likely voters, 48 percent for Romney in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll.

And last but not least, USA Today is also showing a 48/48. Unreal.

Using the latest RCP polls, I filled out the CNN do it yourself map. I kept with the RCP numbers except on Michigan, where I used the latest polls that only came out a few hours ago. 

That gives us 274 Obama, 264 Romney. 

You know what I think? I think it is impossible to call. Except I think Team Orca just might make the difference in the too close to call states. 

What's Team Orca? We'll discuss that on Tuesday. 

Don't miss my new novel, "You Heard It Here First!" on Amazon, Nook, and Kindle!

National Polls

We've reached that point in the presidential campaign process where it gets harder and harder to find something original to write about. Since I choose not to ever bother reading the mud-slinging reports or reports on the mud-slinging reports, there just isn't much to say.
But it is time to start taking a closer look at the polling data.
To sum it up, President Obama is ahead in the electoral math, but it is too close to call in the general election math. But then again, 40 electoral points isn't that many when you have 136 in the toss up column.
In other words, we're in for a long, nasty campaign ahead of us. It's still anyone's game.

Never ask if a Republican is enthusiastic. It doesn't work that way.

Six months from tomorrow we will finally be at election day!

Will it be Mitt Romney or Barack Obama wearing the champion belt that day?

If the elections were held today, the answer would be- either Romney or Obama.

Swing states are more important than ever before. A USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 currently proclaimed swing states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, shows President Obama over Romney with 47 percent to 45 percent. 

A separate poll conducted by Politico and George Washington University found Romney and Obama statistically tied among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent—well within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.

Who do the swing state voters think would be better for the economy? (Gallup poll)

Romney 60%

Obama 52% 

(Yes, I know the numbers don't make sense written that way. Go look at the poll yourself.)

But who do people "like" more? And we don't mean like in the Facebook sense of the word. 

58% think Obama is more likable

31% think Romney is. 

Now here's a very interesting number, that all the talking heads will try to spin their own special way. And yes, I am about to spin it my own personal way too. 

Which fan base is more enthusiastic about the November election?

Obama supporters are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" - 55%

Romney supporters are only 46% that excited. 

Now please pause while I explain why this is one of the stupidest poll questions and numbers ever. In fact, it is so stupid I can't believe Gallup put it out there. What were they thinking?

You can't ask Republicans if they are enthusiastic about an election. Republicans fear elections, because they all think the world is going to hell in a hand basket. If you ask them what they think about the upcoming elections, they groan and whine and talk about the evils penetrating the earth in the form of liberal Democrats taking over the planet. So no, they are not enthusiastic. They are terrified. Personally, I can't believe so many of them did say they are excited. It's just so un-Republican of them.

What the Republicans did and didn't do this week

A Gallup poll released today (Friday the 23rd), shows that in a national contest, Mitt Romney carries a sizable lead over Rick Santorum. 

Gallup Poll March 18-22, 2012 GOP nationwide

That's Romney at 40%, his highest number of points ever (and for all of the candidates) since Gallup began tracking last November.
The poll* has Romney rising six points since his Illinois victory, and Santorum falling four points. The Jeb Bush endorsement didn't hurt either.
It also comes right as the campaigns are getting juvenile again, drifting away from real messages, and just throwing mud at each other. That both the Newt and Santorum campaigns wasted time jumping on the "Etch a Sketch" comment all week is just ridiculous, and yes, like I said, JUVENILE.
Let's break down what happened in the world this week, and what the campaigns talked about-
1. Romney spox Eric Fehrnstrom said on CNN's "Starting Point." The absence of a GOP challenge could allow Romney to "hit a reset button for the fall campaign." He went on to say seconds later, "Everything changes. It's like Etch A Sketch, you can shake it up and we start all over again."(Which, hey, let's own up to something here, is exactly what happens when someone emerges as the nominee. They stop focusing on primaries, and start focusing on the incumbent and national election.)
2. A US soldier was charged with 17 counts of murder, for the atrocities in Afghanistan.
3. A man of Middle Eastern descent shot Jewish children at a school in France.
4. A new World Bank leader was appointed by the POTUS.
5. Syria!!!
6. The Trayvon Martin case has gained momentum across the country regarding crime and racism.
7. The Dow and the S&P dropped. 
8. Gas prices anyone??
9. Obama vows to speed up permit process to get the Oklahoma portion of the Keystone pipeline passed.

Those are just the issues that pop into my head. There's still dozens of other major hot topics out there. And yet, we've got Santorum and Gingrich making headlines about the Etch a Sketch comment!
As for the actual real issues above, here is what the candidates have said, or more accurately, this is what the media has reported them saying.
Gingrich calls Obama remarks on Trayvon Martin disgraceful.
Romney and Santorum basically say nothing about Trayvon Martin.
And that's about it. There are dozens of articles about the Etch a Sketch comment, and nearly nothing on the real issues.
I'm not the only one getting tired of the GOP talking about nothing when there are major issues that need attention. Peggy Noonan talks about it in "Kvetch a Sketch" in the Wall Street Journal.
Candidates- break the trend! Step up and be a real leader!


**Added Later**
As I sit here, finishing this post, I am watching Erin Burnett OutFront on CNN. And she is leading off the night with a conversation on exactly this subject. Why are the Republicans talking about nothing, and letting the Travyon issue pass them by?


*This is part of an ongoing poll by Gallup. At least 1,000 registered Republican voters are polled on a daily basis, and the poll drops the oldest of five days each day and adds results from the most recent day of polling.
In the latest survey, Gallup questioned 1,157 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents by telephone March 18-22, with a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Week of February 27- Arizona and Michigan Polls

It is time to take one last look at the Arizona and Michigan polls before the primaries on Tuesday.

 

Going in alphabetical order, we'll start with Arizona. I've learned my lesson with saying things like "Romney has it all locked up," but in this case, he might. It is hard to imagine that Romney doesn't win in Arizona. 

Michigan is still anybody's ballgame. Romney's current lead is just too close to call, especially with a new poll coming in saying that Santorum has a 4 point lead. My guess is that we are in for another late night of election returns coming right down to the wire- and a temper tantrum, insult, and lack of a congratulatory call from Gingrich.

James Carville wrote a very interesting opinion piece for CNN this week that almost calls into question his sanity. If I am reading it right, he actually implies that Santorum could win in Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming. Specifically he said, "And Mitt is your only hope because Santorum is going to be part of a seven-state strategy. He can carry Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma. That's about it." It is a poorly worded statement, leaving it open to the possibility that maybe he means Romney. But if he really does think that Santorum will even get one vote in Utah, he's absolutely crazy. I know I've complained more than once about people assuming all Mormons will vote for Romney. But come on, you don't really think the man that has actually insulted Mormons is going to beat a Mormon in Utah do you? And I say that as a former recent resident of Utah. (Otherwise, great article!)


Polls taken from Real Clear Politics.

One week till Arizona/Michigan- a look at the polls

(CLICK ON ALL IMAGES TO ENLARGE TO READ THE POLLS)

Arizona and Michigan hold their primaries next Tuesday, February 28. Here is a quick look at the polls in those states. Mitt Romney has a very modest lead in Arizona, with Rick Santorum as the strongest challenger. Just last week the story was that Romney faced big challenges in Michigan and Arizona, and that it was Newt Gingrich who was focusing on Arizona. Now? Well, I'm sure Gingrich will let us know that he had no such intentions of going after the state that has 29 winner-take-all delegates, and it was all just media tripe.
The delegate count currently stands at-

Romney- 106
Santorum- 37
Gingrich- 35
Paul- 27
(These numbers can change depending on how you count superdelegates and the non-binding caucus states. Today I am using the CNN delegate counter because it seems most logical. The numbers do change a tiny bit, putting Gingrich 1 vote ahead of Santorum, if you use the Republican Party Scorecard.)

Arizona's 29 winner-take-all votes could make a massive difference in Santorum's ability to go forward. But can Santorum really beat Romney in the very Mormon state? To get an idea of just how many Mormons really are in Arizona, take a look at Slate.com's Mormon Population Map. I normally get angry when people suggest that all Mormons vote the same and vote for Romney just because he is Mormon. And I still do take offense at that remark. We're not lemmings. However, I don't think many Mormons will vote for Santorum because of his extremist views that go beyond what most socially conservative Mormons believe in. In my opinion, it isn't that they will "vote Mormon" as much as it is they won't "vote Santorum."

Now, on to Michigan, Romney's native state.
Santorum has the lead there, but again, only a modest lead. It isn't strong enough to say he's got a foothold there. With another major debate going down on Wednesday (really, CNN? Another one?) things are definitely still up for grabs in both states.
Nonetheless, Gingrich (who let's remember is losing 35 to 106) is calling for Romney to step down if he can't win his home state. Insert Charlie Brown "good grief" here.
Michigan is a proportional state with 30 delegates. If things were to divide up the way the polls show right now, it still wouldn't put Santorum anywhere near within striking distance of Romney. They would both walk away with somewhere between 9-12 delegates each.

Meanwhile, the national GOP polls still look like a scary mountain range. Too many peaks, valleys, avalanches, and long roads up. This week Santorum's brown line is on the vertical ascent, and Gingrich's green line is headed for the avalanche.And Romney is still riding around a few knobs and hills, but he hasn't fallen off a cliff yet. Ron Paul is still just Ron Paul.
We'll revisit the national polls after AZ/MI next week.

24 hrs till FL Returns- so let's review the polls one more time

Two weeks ago Romney was leading in Florida by as much as 26 points.
One week ago Gingrich was up anywhere from 3 to 9 points.
This week? It is Romney by 12.
Anyone else getting whiplash?

The numbers are definitely all in Romney's favor since Thursday night's CNN Debate.
But it is worth noting that 5 days of a lead don't amount to anything if the numbers slope down. Take a second look-
7 days ago Romney was leading by about 9-11 points.
4 days ago- Romney by 14.
Today? Romney only by 5.
But are the points going to Gingrich?? No. One week ago he was at 31%, and today he is still at 31%.
Santorum and Paul haven't moved significantly either. That is a very strong indication that there's as much as 30% of likely voters that are undecided!
Romney can relax enough to get 8 hours of sleep tonight, but there is no guarantee that he is going to win tomorrow. And there is no reason to think that the final primary numbers tomorrow will be the same as the last poll numbers today.
Surprisingly there still aren't any updated Nevada polls, or numbers for next week's Super Tuesday.
Nationally, Gingrich is still in the lead. But Romney supporters (and Santorum and Paul) need not get too concerned. The national polls will move after the FL returns. If Gingrich wins in an upset tomorrow, the national polls will jump even higher in his favor. If Romney takes FL, the numbers will all adjust to reflect his popularity.

A quick look at the FL polls before they all change again

Let's take a quick look at the FL polls before everything changes all over again. This is honestly the craziest thing I have ever seen. Romney is ahead, ahead, ahead, and then Gingrich comes out as the biggest jerk alive, and suddenly Gingrich jumps 20 points? And then, in those 5 days that are missing in the middle there, Gingrich slowly slips back down, and Romney scoots a wee bit up. And now, incomprehensibly, they are pretty much tied in Florida?
Unfortunately, this yet again means that the debate on Thursday night is going to change everything. At least, that is what we have seen every.single.freaking.debate. thus far.
Do we really want to see Romney and Gingrich go round and round again? I submit no. But that won't change anything. I've looked online and can't figure out who will be hosting the debate tomorrow night. It is being co-sponsored by CNN, the Republican Party of Florida, and the Hispanic Leadership Network. My guess is it won't be John King alone up there. But I really do hope we see John King attack Newt.
Expect the questions tomorrow night to be focused considerably on illegal immigration, and health care for lower and middle class families. These are the issues the rest of the country thinks matters to Floridians. Really, most Floridians are very focused on education, the military/defense spending, and taxes. Floridians don't have to pay state income taxes, and therefore are very aware of their federal tax burden. They are also very interested in relations with Cuba. (Oh heavens, please, no one bring up the Elian issues! Terri Schiavo was bad enough! And for the love, NO Casey Anthony!) I, for one, would love to hear their opinions on improving relations with Cuba now, and not just after Fidel finally kicks it. And I think we can all expect to hear Newt rant on and on about how he is going to build a colony on the moon- you know, with all of that money we have lying around!

** Update** I asked CNN via Twitter who was moderating the debate. Response?

AC360 

@erinannie Wolf Blitzer and then #AC360 hosts the after-party

It's all a numbers game- polls, delegates, and what comes next!

This Republican race is truly unprecedented. We have no historical model to follow, no pattern to expect to emerge. We have four candidates in the race, three have wins, and the fourth one is the only one who has vowed to never drop out of the race! So what happens next? The candidates start looking at the delegate numbers and the polls and weighing likelihood.

• Total Number of delegates: 2286
• Unallocated delegates: 2229
• Number of delegates needed to win: 1144

Gingrich - 25 delegates
Romney- 14
Santorum- 8
Paul - 10

Take a second look at those numbers. Ron Paul who has not won a state, has more delegates than Rick Santorum who can now claim Iowa.

Florida comes next- Jan 31- and it has 50 delegates in a winner takes all state. If you recall, Rudy Giuliani staked it all on winning FL in 2008 (which backfired on him). Five days later will be Nevada with 28 delegates in a proportional allocation state. In other words, win FL you take home 50 delegates. But in NV each candidate may take home a few delegates proportional to how many people have voted for them (which is how Paul has delegates without winning a state).

In 2008 Romney won Nevada in a landslide victory (but no one noticed as they were all focused on the bloodbath in South Carolina).

The pattern in this race has been band wagon mentality all the way. The man that has the best showing in the debate win that week's vote. There is absolutely no clear front-runner, and no one obvious path to follow yet. There are 2 debates this week, which means there are two more chances for upsets and changes.

So let's take a look at the FL numbers-

First, let's discuss the graph and not the actual numbers. Look at the green Gingrich line. He was low, he was high, he dropped, and now, as of today, he's going up again. And there's the red Cain line. Same thing- he's low, he's high, he drops. And then there is Romney with the purple line. He's fairly steady since the summer, with an uptick in the last three weeks, but a sudden fall as Gingrich jumps. Santorum and Paul have remained steady below 12% continuously.
Personally, if I was Santorum or Paul, I'd skip Florida and move on to Nevada. Why? You know you will never win Florida, and it is a winner take all state. Any time spent there is a waste of time and money where you could be elsewhere winning delegates. UNLESS, your goal is not to win the state, but to make you take away support from either Romney or Gingrich to keep them from winning.
I'll be back around later tonight to share thoughts on the debate this evening.

So now- Nevada, and then the slightly less than Super Tuesday. Nevada will holds its proportional caucus on Feb 4. There are few, if any, recent and reliable polls coming out of Nevada yet. But be looking for them to come today soon- like today or tomorrow probably. If it isn't heavily favoring Romney, consider it to be a big surprise. And if you live in Nevada, brace yourselves- the robocalls and pollsters are about to start coming. (And tell the truth to the pollsters!)

Just three days after Nevada comes the mini Super Tuesday. Colorado (36 proportional), Minnesota (40 proportional), and Missouri (52 proportional) will vote on Feb 7. Maine (24 proportional) votes over the course of a week, ending Feb 11. That's 152 proportional delegates in one week, plus the 28 proportional in Nevada. If Florida doesn't produce a clear front runner (and it won't), this race continues to be a massive battle through this first Super Tuesday. After that, the candidates can take quick naps, because the next primary day isn't for 3 more weeks, but is a much bigger Super Tuesday.

In other words, this race is far from defining a winner!

Who you want to win in NH and why!

Let's take one last look at New Hampshire before the fun starts tonight.
Here are the polls that were discussed yesterday-

Click on image to enlarge. Source: Real Clear Politics

It really helps to take a look at the graph and history of changes when looking forward right now. Understanding momentum and bandwagons is important this week. Santorum, who had no following at all in Iowa previously, came in second thanks to a serendipitous bandwagon. But this week it appears to be Huntsman with the loud and rowdy bandwagon. Everybody jump in! Let's see where this will take us! So here's what you need to know depending on who your horse in the race is-

Romney Supporters-
If you support Romney, you can rest easy that he is highly likely to win New Hampshire. But you need to be looking forward to South Carolina and Florida, where he is leading, but not confidently enough. Santorum is gaining in SC, so a Romney fan really wants to see Santorum in third, fourth, or fifth place tonight. (Sixth place is locked up by Perry.) Romney fans really want to see Gingrich in fifth place as well. Why? It will kill any buzz Santorum and Gingrich may have, and dry up their fundraising, if they do poorly in NH. Ron Paul doesn't have much support in SC, so he isn't a real threat there.
The ideal results tonight for a Romney fan would be 1. Romney, 2. Paul, 3. Huntsman, 4/5 Gingrich Santorum.

Paul Supporters-
Only ever want to see Ron Paul win. But looking deeper into it, a Ron Paul path to success tonight would be tthe same as the Romney path. They want to see Huntsman take third, and be able to build on his momentum in SC. That would take the wind out of the Gingrich and Santorum sails. Huntsman has little chance of really gaining too much in SC. But it would open the way for Paul to again make it to second place in SC. (He's currently a distant fourth.)

Gingrich Supporters-
Tonight is all about making it to second place. A third place "victory" isn't going to help or hurt. But in politics if it isn't helping, it is hurting. With Huntsman, Gingrich, and Santorum neck and neck (and neck) right now, third place really is up for grabs. But the momentum (there has got to be another word for this other than momentum) isn't in Gingrich's favor. Fourth place would be a disaster, and fifth place the ultimate disaster. The only good outcome tonight would be second place. Third is okay, but not great.

Santorum Supporters-
Tonight is the real test. Everyone ran like lemmings to vote for Santorum in Iowa, and then actually stopped to hear him speak at the debates this week. I don't think people liked what they heard. They voted and then gave him a chance. It will be really interesting to see if people liked what they heard when they started paying attention. If he doesn't get third place tonight, he will absolutely have to take first or second in South Carolina. (He's currently in second, threatening a weak first place Romney.) But expect the lemmings to jump ship and run to whoever takes second place in New Hampshire tonight. Depending on how much money he has in the war chest (or in his case, what may only be a piggy bank) he should make it on to Florida regardless of how poorly he does in SC. The real question is whether or not he can survive past that. If he performs well tonight, he survives pass Florida. Otherwise? Highly doubtful.

Huntsman Supporters-
All both of you out there have done a great job timing his peak in New Hampshire. Huntsman is the one to watch tonight, no question about it. He is a real threat for third place. But thanks to his great showing in the debates over the weekend, and a lot of extra media attention, he has a real shot of riding this wave to a peak tonight. He could quite possibly take second place. And if he does, that changes everything for everybody. First, all of the Mormon Romney supporters will have to reevaluate which bandwagon they want seats on. Second, it means more money for him, less for everyone else. He's in last place in SC, but only a tiny 1 point behind Perry. If he can take second tonight, and gain in popularity over the next 10 days, (which he likely would) he becomes a serious threat in SC. I don't know why Gingrich and Santorum are out there beating up on Romney this week. They should be attacking Huntsman, because he is the one that they have to beat.

Perry Supporters-
Don't exist.

Ready or not, here's New Hampshire (polls for Jan 9)

(CLICK ON ALL IMAGES TO ENLARGE)

We'll start with New Hampshire, then go on to South Carolina, Florida, and the national polls.
In short, Mitt is going to win New Hampshire. The primaries are tomorrow, and not even another out of the blue Santorum surge can beat Romney now. Now granted, his lead has slipped from 21.3 to 19. Well, unless we stick to my decision to remove all PPP results from overall scores. (Because they continuously, week after week, are significantly different from all other polls, thereby questioning their audience and polling questions.) Which, by the way, if you do, changes the rankings a little bit- Romney (39.6), Paul (20.2), Santorum moves ahead of Huntsman to 11.2, with Huntsman 10.2. Gingrich is moving down in the polls, not up, but could still possibly be in competition in third place. Perry is still losing miserably.
Even if Santorum and Huntsman continue to enjoy a well-timed surge, they are only going to threaten Ron Paul, and not Romney.
Prediction-
1. Results are in by midnight Eastern time, and we're not up till 2:30 am watching CNN.
2. We'll miss Edith and Carol in Iowa.
3. Romney wins with a massive lead.
4. Ron Paul and Huntsman duke it out for second place.
5. Santorum takes fourth.
6. Gingrich blames Romney for everything.
7. Perry doesn't drop out although he really ought to.

So on to South Carolina, where suddenly everyone is convinced the "real winner" will be picked, based on the fact that all GOP nominees won in South Carolina- a point completely disproved previously.

Just one month ago Gingrich was in a 19 point lead 42 to Romney's 23. Today? Romney has the lead, while Newt is down in third, and not gaining. If Santorum takes third or fourth in New Hampshire, expect his second place scores to start dropping. Gingrich will drop even more if he has a dismal response in NH. Which means Paul, who is in fourth right now, is actually the person with the most to gain here. If he takes second in NH, he may move up as far as second in SC, as the Santorum bandwagon slows down.
Predictions-
too soon to say, other than Romney should take first, for an historical sweep of Iowa, NH, and SC. Perry and Huntsman, who have no real reason to think they can even eke it up to third place, will drop out. The real question is whether or not Gingrich will drop out.
A question that can be answered by looking forward to Florida-

Instead of just looking at the current numbers, it helps to understand the past numbers too. In a non-stump state like Florida voters go with the popular name. Gingrich had the name recognition vote for quite some time. But don't be completely fooled by the numbers, these numbers used to have Cain and Bachmann in them as well.
Also, ignore the RCP average. They are pulling in numbers all the way back to early December (again, during Cain's heydey). Only the Quinnipiac numbers should be taken too seriously. We need more polls before we can really understand Florida, and a lot is going to happen in the next two weeks. If Romney stays strong, he can take Florida. But if there are any Gingrich surprises and he does better than expected in NH or SC, he won't want to drop out if he's still holding on in FL. It looks like Paul has been pretty static in FL over the past year. If he hasn't taken first anywhere, and doesn't move up at all in FL, expect him to drop out after FL. And I doubt Huntsman and Perry will still be around by FL, or will drop out immediately thereafter.
Which brings us to the national polls, where the hopes of the future candidates all hang. And that my friends, is where things get interesting-

In NH the order goes- Romney, Paul, Huntsman. (Or Romney, Paul, Santorum if you go with my numbers.)
In SC the lineup is- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich
And FL- Romney, Gingrich Santorum.
And nationally- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich.
In other words, we aren't seeing a consistent series of front-runners. If you are a Romney supporter you can breathe a little easier, but not too easy. An 8 point national lead isn't that confident and stable. Of course, if he really does sweep all of the early states, the 8 points will skyrocket.
But if you are Gingrich and you are in second place in Florida (and all those beautiful delegates), and you have a fighting chance in SC, and nationally you are still fighting for second, when do you call it quits? Do you ride it out and hope that Romney slips up somehow? (After all, all the other front runners have slipped up so far.)
And if you are Santorum, you are just praying hard that you can hold on to your momentum and that the money keeps pouring in. But realistically you know that that doesn't happen.
And if you are Romney, you just stay the course, barely adjusting the sails.

Iowa is in 24 hours- a last look at the polls

With Iowa upon us in just 24 hours, we'll forgo a deep look at the other polls this week and only look at Iowa.
Last week in Iowa-
Ron Paul was leading by a .5% smidge. Mitt Romney was hot on his heels, and Newt Gingrich has dropped into no man's land. And Michele Bachmann, after some big claims about how she was winning was spotted back in 5th place.
And then, out of nowhere in midweek, new numbers came out to show Rick Santorum was suddenly in third place.

Click on image to enlarge

And we're down to the finish line, where all we can do is it and wait to see if the polls really do reflect the real voters.
Romney has the overall average lead by 1.3%, with Ron Paul too close for comfort. Rick Santorum really is in third place consistently 2-3 points ahead of Newt Gingrich (who would have ever imagined that?). And Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Jon Huntsman can all pack up and go to New Hampshire now. Oh wait, Huntsman already did.
You have to be impressed with that little tiny brown line of Santorum's on the chart. All slow and steady for so long, then jumping up at the last second. Good job, Little Brown Line. You are the little inchworm that could!
So who will it be, folks? Romney or Paul in the winner's circle?
I just want to throw this out there-
The Little Inchworm That Could could also really throw things off tomorrow. Take a good look at all the lines on the cart. Do you see how many sudden spikes there are? Santorum really and truly could be spiking serendipitously here. Iowa is a big bandwagon state. They like to jump on the next big thing (as seen by the roller coaster of lines). The two most recent polls show Santorum within 4 points of Paul and Romney. If that momentum carries for another 24 hours (and go look at all the political headlines- Santorum is the news), he really could have a serious chance of winning Iowa. With the margin of error on these things, plus his growing momentum, we really could see an upset tomorrow.
(I'll be glued to my TV set, live updating I am sure.)
At the same time, Romney, according to these polls, could be the winner. And if he wins New Hampshire next week (which we have every reason to think he could), that would be history making. The only non-incumbent candidate to win in both states since 1972 is Bob Dole in 1996. (For reasons I cannot explain yet, all data stops in 1972.) This would be a massive victory for Mitt Romney to say the least.
But then again, it is just as likely that Ron Paul could win Iowa tomorrow. He is more than a good 20 points down from Romney in New Hampshire right now, but in second place. An Iowa victory for him could easily get him a huge uptick. But would it put him within striking distance of Romney. But the real threat in New Hampshire is if Santorum wins in Iowa. We can easily expect to see support for Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and maybe even Paul swing in his favor. A Santorum victory in Iowa could mean an upset everywhere. Or not. He could win Iowa, Romney will win New Hampshire, and Gingrich could (maybe, possibly) still win South Carolina. Which would lead to one very crazy Super Tuesday the following week in several states.
If Romney wins both states though, expect to see Gingrich start to seriously falter in South Carolina. Romney is in a distant, but strong second there. He could very easily overtake and pass Gingrich if Iowa and NH go well.
And if that happens... well, things could get very interesting in Florida and elsewhere. Well, interesting if you are a Romney fan anyway.

Get details and some fun facts about the Iowa Caucus here.


Food for thought-

Romney lost in Iowa in 2008 with 29,949 votes, or  25.2%, to Mike Huckabee's 40,841 votes ( 34.4%).
It is incredibly conceivable that Romney can win Iowa this time around with less voters than he had when he lost. In 2008 there were roughly 120,000 voters in the caucus. If that same number holds true tomorrow (which is unlikely, as voter turnout is expected to be low- which irritates me to no end. The state insists on being "first in the nation," gobbling up campaign monies, dominating politics, getting all sorts of kickbacks, and then they don't even bother to all come out for the caucus? RUDE!)- and Romney gets his expected 23%, that is only 27,600 votes. He could very easily win with less than it took to lose. Go figure. 

Polls for the week ending December 27, 2011

2008 Iowa Caucus Results by County

We're a little delayed thanks to the holiday but here's our weekly look at the national polls.
Last week's GOP nomination polls ended on December 17, and we have new data for this week's polls!
Last week we saw Newt Gingrich drop 4%, Mitt Romney holding on with his usual 20ish percent, and it was Michele Bachmann with the surprising gain of 3.2% overtaking Rick Perry. 

This week Gingrich is still in the lead, but that little green line of his is still going down, while the Romney purple line inched up. Ron Paul takes a completely unimpressive third place, a good 10-14 points behind the leaders.
The data for PPP is so far off from the other polls that I looked back at their last set of numbers. The last data from them was in early November, and even then their numbers were completely different (in Gingrich's favor) from the other polls conducted that week. It makes me want to toss their numbers out personally. If we pull out the PPP numbers, Gingrich's national average is 25.75, and Romney at 25.5. And we've got ourselves a horse race!

On to "First in the Nation" Iowa Caucuses-
For the last two weeks we have seen a drastic change in numbers coming out of Iowa. Prior to the Fox News televised debates we had Gingrich 30%, Romney 20%, Paul 11%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 9%, Santorum 5%, Huntsman 2%, and Cain still in the race with 5%.
But then two days later there was news that a new Rasmussen polls had Romney in the lead at 23%.
But then Cain dropped out of the race, and the polls all changed. Gingrich dropped by 13%, Ron Paul jumped ahead 8%, and everyone saw movement all over the place.
But it is Ron Paul that needs to be looked at carefully. Last week he had only 11%, and now he's up to 19.3%.
And then after Cain dropped out, and we had the Iowa debates, we found Gingrich, Paul, and Romney are all within 2 points of each other, and Michele Bachmann started sending out emails saying she was winning Iowa! 

So here we are exactly one week away from the Iowa caucus, and things have changed again!
Ron Paul is in the lead! It isn't a strong lead, but he is definitely in the lead. Romney is hot on his heels, and Gingrich has dropped into no man's land. And Michele Bachmann? 5th place.
Because I'm starting to feel incredibly skeptical about any and all data out of PPP, I'm redoing the numbers, dropping their data. It moves Ron Paul to 22, and Mitt Romney to 21.5. Considering the margin of error on these polls, I'd say we don't really know who is going to win in Iowa! It will be either Ron Paul or Mitt Romney, but I think the numbers have been too volatile to really say that with any confidence.

Now for the Live Free state of New Hampshire-
Last week Romney was in the lead, but he had dropped just a skosh.
Now looking at this week's numbers-

How about we just call it for Romney now?

Latest Letter from Bachmann

Latest letter from the Bachmann campaign-

Dear Fellow Conservative,

As one of my most loyal supporters I wanted you to be the first to know this exciting news. In a We Ask America poll just released today, our campaign is only four points behind Ron Paul for first place in Iowa!

We are in a statistical dead heat for the Iowa caucuses and I need your immediate support to push my campaign over the top!

I know with your support and prayers our campaign can prove victorious in January. Iowa is where Barack Obama’s campaign began and it is where it will end- when our campaign wins the first-in-the-nation caucuses! Your donation today will ensure our campaign has the resources it needs to win next month. Please give as generously as possible up to the legal limit.

Having never heard of We Ask America, I went to their website. They are a for-hire polling company. It doesn't say who commissioned this particular poll. The results and information are a bit confusing though. It doesn't sound like the right audience was polled. "The results for Ron Paul in last night’s poll may actually be a couple of points better than it shows here among the general electorate due to his strength in the 35-44 & 45-54 age brackets, but the Iowa caucuses skew older..."

It does require mentioning that while We Ask America ha fairly consistent results with their winners and losers, their numbers in no way line up with the numbers of the larger polling companies. Most other companies had Bachmann at about 7% (give or take a few) on Dec 5.
Just food for thought!

GOP Polls for week ending Dec 17, 2011

Wow, what a difference one week makes! The polls are still leaning in Gingrich's favor nationally, but his lead is definitely not a sure thing.
Quick wrap up on the polls for last week (GOP polls for week ending Dec 12). Gingrich was still on the rise, with his average lead nationally about 12 points ahead of Romney. Romney was continuing to hold on to his consistent 20%. Cain was still showing up in the numbers, and Ron Paul had moved up to about 9%. The rest of the pack showed little to no change (as always).
This week is our first official non-Cain polling week. And what a difference a week makes!

Gingrich is down 4%
Romney is ever faithful with his 22.5% (up 1.7%)
Ron Paul moved up .3%
Michele Bachmann is the surprise dark horse this week and moves up 3.2% to 4th place, putting her a full point of Rick Perry (who saw no change).
Rick Santorum stays steady at 3.5%.
And Jon Huntsman moves up from 2.5 to to 3.0, which if you think about it, is a 25% increase in supporters for him. So bravo Jon Huntsman!

New Poll Shows Romney Leading in Iowa

Mitt Romney Leads in Iowa (in one poll at least)

The Rasmussen Reports today announced that for the fifth straight week a different candidate has emerged at the head of the pack in Iowa. And everyone is shocked that this week's leader is Mitt Romney!
Remember that just 3 days ago the Iowa polls were showing Romney trailing Gingrich by 11 points. And the Rasmussen Reports have never had Romney in the lead in Iowa before! This is a pretty significant change.
(The survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted on December 13, 2011.)

But before anyone puts too much stock into this poll, let's see if anyone else has reported any new polls in the last few days.

The NewsMax/InsiderAdvantage survey of 517 registered likely Iowa caucus-goers, conducted Dec 12, 2011.
Newt Gingrich= 27%
Ron Paul= 17%
Rick Perry= 13%
Mitt Romney= 12%
Michele Bachmann= 10%
Rick Santorum= 7%
Jon Huntsman= 4%

Don't forget tonight is another debate in Iowa. And so far, we've had a new sweetheart after every debate. It will be interesting to see how things shake out after tonight. But can there really be that many undecided voters left in Iowa? Is it possible that every registered Republican hasn't had their hand shaken by every single candidate? I often wonder as well- considering how many letters and phone calls I get asking me to donate to help a candidate succeed in Iowa, how many free meals have I provided for the registered voters of Iowa?

The Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina

After such a lengthy post about the national polls yesterday, I decided to wait a day to do the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and take a look at the rest of the country as well.

Iowa-
Last week we saw the RCP average ranking Gingrich 26, Romney 15.8, Paul 13.6, Cain, 12.0, Bachman 7.8, Santorum 4.6, Huntsman 2.0.
Data came from polls conducted by Des Moines Register, NBC/Marist, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen Reports, and The Polling Company, gathered over November 11-30

This week the data comes from completely different sources, and from overlapping dates!

Considering the overlapping dates of this week's polls and last week's polls, I decided to make my own table, only pulling in data that covers November 29-30 (which mind you was nearly 2 weeks ago, and means Cain was still in the picture).

My numbers don't really change anything. But I really didn't like that RCP was combining polls that overlapped before Cain dropped out. My numbers all intersect two days, which theirs did not.
In short, Gingrich has Iowa locked up. Which is why the accusation in stonezine.com yesterday that the Romney camp is telling people to vote for Paul makes absolutely no sense. I didn't make this up (they did).

Why would any candidate want to tell his supporters to vote for someone else in order to avert defeat? If anything, Romney would be doing everything in his power right now to make sure he himself comes in second, and to not let Ron Paul beat him.

One thing is for sure though, the Gingrich team doesn't have the money of the Romney team. (Romney had a fundraiser in New Jersey last night that brought in $1.1 million! It rumored that Gingrich may only have $4 million total in his war chest. (Source: Chicago Tribune) That money won't last long with media buys coming up in more states.

Speaking of other states (that matter more in the long run), let's take a look at New Hampshire.

The only new poll on here is the CNN/Time poll. NBC and Rasmussen were in last week's numbers (along with a few other sources as well). And the CNN/Time poll was also taken over the days that covered the Cain drop. So again, not really indicative of what people are really thinking now. We still have Romney with a significant lead over Gingrich, and the rest of the pack. Last week's numbers, which again, covered most of the same dates, had Romney leading with 16.5. Just goes to show you how little you can trust polling. Drop some data, add some data, and tada! You can change the results!

So let's take our first look at the rest of the country, shall we?
South Carolina (primary to be held January 21, 2012)-

Gingrich is in the lead. And looking back at the polls over the past few months tells us that Cain had a stronghold there until mid-November. That support appears to have gone to Gingrich. It is interesting that Romney really maintains that 20% across the country (as I discussed yesterday). The real fight is going to be for third place between Perry, Paul, and Bachmann.

After South Carolina will be the Florida primary on January 31.

Romney has never had a strong lead in Florida, but up until the end of October, he maintained a fairly steady lead. Then Cain had his short burst of fame, and quick demise. And just like in all of the other states, that support moved over to Gingrich.
It scares me to see that Gingrich line on the graphs skyrocketing up like that. Anyone else remember the last time we saw a skyrocket candidate at the last second?
Let me remind you-

Anything look familiar there? Look at the way the McCain line (brown) just jumps up at the last minute. Remember how we all came to quickly regret McCain? He wasn't a candidate anyone felt strongly about, or wanted to support. (And then there was the Palin disaster... Oy vey. At least we dodged a bullet there.) The Gingrich rise scares me in the same way the McCain rise did. Makes you wonder if Giuliani had cared more about Iowa and New Hampshire, if things would have gone differently?

But if you look at the news today, I'm not the only one wondering if we're about to see another "Giuliani moment" among the candidates?

Comparing the GOP 2012 Polls for the week ending Dec 12, 2012

Washington Monument, Source: E. McBride

Welcome back to another round of comparing the weekly GOP 2012 polls. Let's quickly recap last week's standings (polls for week ending Dec 5).
Last week I wasn't very impressed with Real Clear Politics and their overall wrap up. They were using the same polls over the same exact dates for the past three weeks, but representing it as new. They tossed in one new poll and mixed it in with the old data to create new numbers. The polls weren't even conducted in the same time period, which really throws off the accuracy of the gauge. Nationally they were showing Newt Gingrich leading by 6.2, and their one new poll (Rasmussen) had Gingrich ahead nationally by 21! So I am looking forward to figuring out today's numbers, and hoping for a lot of new data, especially since this will be our first non-Cain week.

And yet again, RCP is disappointing me by mixing old data with new data, which throws things off by keeping Cain numbers in the older data. Ugh.

Taking out the old data, and only looking at the specific polls, feels different to me. Same frontrunner, and the results don't change much. (Remember, without Cain the totals won't be 100%.) But I'm more comfortable this way. In short, Gingrich is still showing a meteoric rise. Laid out this way you can also really see how very little change the bottom 3 candidates are seeing in the polls. Why won't they just drop out? Are they hoping to be the next Gingrich?
Look at that the Gallup poll for 10/7/11. Gingrich had 7% and was in 5th place (Cain had 18%). He was still behind Perry and Paul! So I guess you can't blame the back of the pack for wanting to be a dark horse. But I really don't see that happening.
Basically it all comes down to Romney and Gingrich at this point. Romney is such a strange number in all of this. He really has managed to hold on to exactly his 20% of registered Republicans for a year now. That tells you something- he has a very solid and loyal group of supporters.
This got me to thinking. There are 312,759,000 people living in the United States according to the 2010 Census. (Source: Wikipedia.) There were 218,054,301 individuals in the "voting eligible population" for the 2010 elections (which takes out illegals, those under 18, overseas, non-citizens, anyone incarcerated, etc) (Source: US Elections Project).
It will be an imperfect number, but here's some food for thought. In 2008 (and in the 2 previous elections) we saw the country split in close to 50/50 numbers in the presidential elections. Obama won over McCain with 53%. There are 55 million registered Republicans (source: AskMe), while Pew Research Center says that 27% of Americans identified as GOP in 2008 (come to think of it, I didn't identify as GOP in 2008, because I didn't like McCain/Palin. I identified and registered as Libertarian. Living at that time in a heavily red state, I knew my third party vote and the electoral system wouldn't help Obama get elected, but would send a message to the GOP that they were losing their base.) So using these numbers, I wanted to see how many people are staying local to Romney nationwide.
We could break down the numbers a few ways-
27% of the 312,759,000? Not good enough, since that number includes the under 18, illegals, and incarcerated.
But first let's see what 27% of the voting eligible population comes out to- 218,054,301 x .27 = 58,874,661.
59 million(ish), which isn't too far off from the 55 million registered Republicans. Don't you just love it when numbers actually come close?
So of 55 million Republicans, we know that roughly 20% have stayed loyal to Romney. That comes out to 11 million loyal Romney fans.
Obama won with roughly 67 million votes in 2008. (Source: CNN)
Assuming the country goes close to 50/50 again (and really, do we have a reason to think it won't?), Romney has 8% of the base. (Erin Math: he has 16% of the 50% which is GOP, therefore 8% of the 100%). Granted, with the electoral college system, that isn't going to really make much of a dent, (especially since Utah only has 5 electoral votes), but if he were to choose 3rd party, he could mess things up for Gingrich.
But since he's never threatened such a thing, and Ron Paul does all the time, let's see what kind of damage Paul could do-
Paul holds steady with 9.5% of the GOP. That gives him roughly 55 million x 9.5 = 5.2 million Ron Paul supporters
5.2 million supporters equals 2% of the voting eligible population.
Sorry, Paulites, but I don't see him doing any significant damage. Or winning. Ever.

I was not compensated for this post. All math is mine and mine alone, and I was BA, not a BS. But I did get a B in Math 110 from a state university.