Monday, November 28, 2011

National, Iowa, and New Hampshire Polls for week ending Nov 28

Time to check out the new polls for the week. But first, let's review last week's polls, shall we?
In a nutshell, over the last 4 weeks we have significant improvement across the national polls for Gingrich, taking most of his points from Romney. Cain started high, dropped, and has come back up, while no one else has really made much of an impact. But four weeks ago Gingrich was trailing in fifth place. And Perry and Cain keep switching places back and forth.

For the week ending Nov 28, 2011-

Gingrich has officially overtaken Romney by 2.5% in the major races. The two of them are significantly ahead of Cain.
One poll that is not showing up in the header is the Pew Research Center poll, which last week had Romney ahead of Gingrich by 7%. If the PRC did a poll this week, the information isn't public enough to be reported on.
With the national data in mind, let's take a quick look at the Iowa Caucus poll data.

Iowa polls are showing inconsistent results. Gingrich and Cain are jockeying for first place, but Romney also has a strong foothold as well. (Sorry for the mixed metaphors.) Ron Paul (who isn't leading in any other states) is also holding on as well. It is significant to note that if the bottom four contenders were to all drop out (and they should) by Iowa, that would be 19% of the votes up for grabs, and could completely change the face of the caucus. However, I doubt we'll see anyone drop out in the next 6 weeks, but we'll see plenty drop out the days after.
It is also important to note the graph is showing Cain is on a downward trend, so we might see him really fall further next week. In the meantime, Ron Paul is on a slowly gaining upward trend, while Romney is slowly going down.
The New Hampshire primary will be held on January 10 (one week after Iowa), so let's take a quick look at their polls too!

The contrast between New Hampshire and Iowa is almost comical. New Hampshire has Romney in such a significant lead that we can just assume he's going to win and call it a night. He is 18 points ahead of Gingrich right now. However, it will be interesting to see if the Union-Leader choosing to endorse Gingrich will actually sway any voters. (We'll be sure to check in on those numbers next week. Gingrich has 18.5% of the voters before the endorsement.)
So to sum up, nationally Gingrich has a 2.5% lead over Romney. In Iowa Gingrich has roughly a 5% lead over Cain and Romney, but Cain is trending down. But in New Hampshire, Romney is leading by 18% over Gingrich, and no one else can touch them.

1 comment:

Your comments are always welcome here!