Monday, January 30, 2012

24 hrs till FL Returns- so let's review the polls one more time

Two weeks ago Romney was leading in Florida by as much as 26 points.
One week ago Gingrich was up anywhere from 3 to 9 points.
This week? It is Romney by 12.
Anyone else getting whiplash?

The numbers are definitely all in Romney's favor since Thursday night's CNN Debate.
But it is worth noting that 5 days of a lead don't amount to anything if the numbers slope down. Take a second look-
7 days ago Romney was leading by about 9-11 points.
4 days ago- Romney by 14.
Today? Romney only by 5.
But are the points going to Gingrich?? No. One week ago he was at 31%, and today he is still at 31%.
Santorum and Paul haven't moved significantly either. That is a very strong indication that there's as much as 30% of likely voters that are undecided!
Romney can relax enough to get 8 hours of sleep tonight, but there is no guarantee that he is going to win tomorrow. And there is no reason to think that the final primary numbers tomorrow will be the same as the last poll numbers today.
Surprisingly there still aren't any updated Nevada polls, or numbers for next week's Super Tuesday.
Nationally, Gingrich is still in the lead. But Romney supporters (and Santorum and Paul) need not get too concerned. The national polls will move after the FL returns. If Gingrich wins in an upset tomorrow, the national polls will jump even higher in his favor. If Romney takes FL, the numbers will all adjust to reflect his popularity.

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