Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Live commenting the Iowa Caucus

I'll be updating this blog post throughout the night. Hit refresh periodically to see it all. I will write new info above the older info (pushing the earliest comments to the lower part of the post).

2:36- And Iowa officially, AND FINALLY, calls it for Mitt Romney by 8 votes- ‎30015 to 30007.
And the CNN heads all finally combust into laughter.
Wait, Wow. MITT ROMNEY JUST WON IOWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2:26- CNN hasn't completely called it for Romney and the 14 votes, because they are waiting for official word from the state party, but they have done some math that proves the 14 vote theory. And on that happy note, I AM GOING TO BED.
HISTORY HAS BEEN MADE! By who? I'm not really sure. But I'm okay with that.

And now Edith and Carol in Iowa are trending on Twitter. Priceless.
Even more priceless, CNN says the state is going to make it official any minute now.

May I just point out that all around the country people are staying up all night to hear the Iowa results, and yet the precinct chairs in Iowa were asleep?!

2:15- John King looks like he can barely keep from laughing as these ladies in Iowa get all defensive on the phone. BUT! It looks like the interns at CNN figured out where the missing votes were before the state party did. If the very tired sounding lady on the phone was right, Romney 437, Santorum 354, which would put Romney just barely over the top.

2:07- CNN is losing it and talking about I don't know what. Meanwhile, the Twitter rumor about Romney winning by 14 is getting bigger. WOULD SOME CREDIBLE OUTLET PLEASE CONFIRM?! People need to go to bed. (which, believe me, includes the CNN talking heads tonight.)
I've officially lost it. I can't stop laughing. The fact that CNN had to call and wake up someone who had to go knock on a sleeping friend's door to figure out where the missing votes are is getting to be too funny.
Oh but now the woken up lady is telling us that Romney won by a few votes. This is ridiculous.
Next time, let's have them vote with cows. 

2:03- hot from Twitter (which keep in mind earlier today/yesterday/something reported Fidel Castro had died) - : Romney team says he won by 14 votes. Just talked to state party officials.

1:58- Clinton County farmers harvested 214,403 acres of corn and 104,021 acres of soybeans, and produced 81,541 hogs and 58,221 head of cattle.
And apparently they didn't teach simple arithmetic in Clinton County because this is taking WAY TOO LONG!

1:55- If I wasn't quite so sleepy and loopy right now, I'd be making a wisecrack about how it figures that we are waiting on CLINTON for the final votes.
There are 49,116 people in Clinton County, Iowa. Stay tuned to find out how many cows they have.

1:47- I met Anderson Cooper in Haiti once. Here's a picture I took of my friend with him. I was holding the camera, and didn't get my own picture taken with him.
For the record, there wasn't a lot of giggling going on in Haiti.

FOR THE LOVE, can we just get the final numbers in?!

1:46- Yes, yes, I did just get back out of bed to turn on the TV just in case Anderson Cooper giggles again.
Oh and now Santorum is up by 4.
(I JUST WANT TO GO TO BED!) (and hear Anderson Cooper giggle)

1:36 - Two words for you- ONE VOTE

Hey look, they finally cracked Romney's old score.

1:29- And it all comes down to Keokuk and Clinton Counties. I had a very bad experience once involving Keokuk, IA. I misspelled it on a document (while working on a presidential campaign) and it was seen by "the public." I got reamed for it. I've held a grudge ever since. Tonight is not helping.
There are approximately 10,500 people living in Keokuk County, according to Wikipedia. The median household income there is $34,025, which suddenly makes me feel very rich. There are 25,601 cows in Keokuk. And no, I am not making that up. 

1:22- here's a shocker- the Drudge Report "online caucus" that had Ron Paul so heavily winning? Yeah, not only was it wrong, but also just further proof that Paulies like to bomb online polls.
I wonder if the 58 people who wasted their votes on Cain are regretting that right now?

1:10- Now I know they are just messing with my head. Washington Post is reporting 100% precincts in, and Santorum at 29,908, Romney at 29,874. Which of course would be fewer votes than CNN's 99% reporting in.
Sometimes, instant, fast media is not a good thing.

I have a theory that Rick Perry is really going back to Texas to 'reassess' because he couldn't find a hotel room in New Hampshire. Jim Bob Duggar just bought them all out for his kids.

1:06 (I have to be at work in 8 hours. Oy vey.)
Santorum- 29,944
Romney- 29,926
Romney's 08 number? 29,949.
Again, I say, oy vey.

And may I just ask, exactly how long can we keep saying "99% of precincts reporting??"

12:53- Tell me the guy in the background doesn't look like Al Gore-

Oh! New Numbers-
Santorum- 29,914
Romney- 29,879

And it is Santorum up by 35. (Stop the madness!)

Oh wait, no, that has changed already!
Santorum- 29,924
Romney- 29,911
This is turning into a cruel game of torture where Iowa just drags out their 15 minutes of fame for as long as they possibly can.

12:49- 97.9% of precincts reporting in from Story County, IA. There is a ONE VOTE DIFFERENCE in Romney's favor right now.

12:46- you gotta hand it to Drudge for knowing how to make a visual statement-

12:42- Here's food for thought (and not about corn)- Santorum isn't even on the ballot in Virginia.
We're still down to 5 votes and 99% of precincts reporting. Even after that last precinct gets checked in, and we call it for the night, it won't matter. There will obviously be some serious recounting overnight. But at least we won't be subjected to hearing about hanging and dimpled chads again.
You have to admit, Ann Romney would bring some serious class and grace back to the White House.

12:33- GAH! And now suddenly CNN has changed their numbers back down to 98% reporting.
Romney- 29,625
Santorum-   29,584

Very odd.

Oh wait, and now we're back to 99% and Santorum at 29,662. I swear, they are just milking this for all they can tonight.
Speaking of milk, my dad encouraged me to make some corn jokes tonight rather than cow jokes. I don't have any jokes, but did you know in 2007, Iowa harvested more than 2.5 billion bushels of corn? That is more than Argentina as a country produced. Having never been to Argentina, I have no idea if they have a lot of corn fields.
Maybe my dad meant corny jokes?

Santorum- 29,662
Romney 29,657
(99% reporting)

Romney still need 292 votes to tie his votes from last time. 

12:27- Just thinking how many people are going to wake up tomorrow morning and say, "Santorum Who?" When your friends ask, here's a simple little post I wrote about Rick Santorum  that you can share with them. It should cover all that they need to know.

12:23- and it is back to Romney on top for a few minutes-

12:11- If my math is right, (and who are we kidding, it often isn't), there has been 118,582 votes cast so far tonight in Iowa. Which looks like we'll have the same turnout as '08.
Another factoid for you, as the numbers stand right now, the outlets are saying Santorum and Romney are tied at 24.6%. So I just did the math out a little further. Santorum is at 24.632% and Romney is at 24.601%. This is getting ridiculous. And we thought we needed a recount in 2000!

Texas Gov. Rick Perry says he is returning to Texas to reassess his campaign.  

12:06am - Santorum- 29,210, Romney- 29,173. Both at 25%.  I keep waiting for someone to make inappropriate "God loves the Mormons/Evangelicals more" jokes on Twitter. But I guess we have to wait for a winner first for that.
Romney still doesn't have all the votes he had last time. Crazy.

11:54- This is starting to feel like the night that will never end!

11:38- Just a fun fact reminder- Romney lost in Iowa in 2008 with 29,949 votes, as of right now, he has 28,861. (Santorum now at 28,929).

11:33- and now its Santorum by 99!

11:09- and now Romney is up by 125!

10:56- And now CNN is reporting (on the TV, not the website yet) that Santorum is leading by a mere 13 votes. This is ridiculously close.
In other news, Huntsman got a whole 629 votes statewide. Ouch.
Anyone else wondering where all the Paulies are screaming conspiracy and rigged votes??
Oh wow, Bachmann, who just a week ago claimed she was winning in Iowa, has under 6,000 votes total, and is only beating Huntsman. I wonder if she'll finally drop out now?

10:50- 88% reporting-
 in comparison, just 5 minutes ago (only 79% reporting)

10:46- Romney lost in Iowa in 2008 with 29,949 votes, or  25.2%, to Mike Huckabee's 40,841 votes ( 34.4%). With 59% of the precincts reporting in right now, he has 14,205 votes. I'm wondering if either Santorum (currently has 14,606 votes) will be getting 29,000 votes?

10:21- This just in! Reality TV show star, Jim Bob Duggar, has endorsed Santorum. Now, don't get me wrong. I love and respect the Duggars. I think they are very good people. But if this sudden spike and interest in Santorum is all because a reality tv star showed up, I'm going to lose even more respect for Iowa. The voters there have already proven to be bandwagon voters, going with the flavor of the week. They make such a big deal out of being "first in the nation," but really, they don't actually take getting to know the candidates seriously. They get more opportunities than anyone else in the entire country to learn about the candidates, and yet, their loyalties shift way too often. This is just further proof that Santorum isn't really who they believe in. He's just this week's hot cheerleader. That really disappoints me.

10:17- Sorry, Ron Paulies, but I haven't seen Paul gaining in a while. I'm willing to bet he ain't going to win tonight.

10:10- Romney is down by 200ish votes!

9:54- Romney has maintained his very modest lead for 20 whole minutes now. 

9:35- If my information is right, Iowa aggregates the votes by county, in a sort of quasi-delegate system. This is significant because it is rumored thus far that Romney is popular in the more "urban" areas of Iowa, the more populous counties. And if the pundits are right, those will be the last counties to send in results. It isn't the number of counties you win, it is the number of people in the country. For instance, right at this moment you can see that Santorum has won the majority of counties. However, Romney and Paul have the denser counties.

9:32 pm- I spoke too soon!
I wouldn't call it a real lead yet, but hey, look! Romney is technically in first!

9:25- I can't help but notice that so far, none of the numbers have shown Romney in first. They are all very close, but he's yet to be first.

9:15- Comparing reports-
Fox- Paul (3,821), Romney (3,650), Santorum (3,636) (13% reporting in)
Washington Post- identical numbers, but claims 16% reporting in
Anti-climatic- CNN has same numbers. I was hoping someone would be different. Oh well.

8:56- Fox has 8% of precincts reporting-
Santorum 24% (2,160 votes)
Paul 24% (2,273 votes)
Romney 22% (2,152 votes)

Dang. This is too close to call!
I predicted this yesterday that Santorum's moment in the sun could be happening at just the right time. I actually think this is very unfortunate. He's just the flavor of the week. I don't think he's really anyone's real choice. He's just the anti-Gingrich candidate of the moment.

8:48- holy cannoli, the CNN entrance polls have -
Ron Paul 24%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rick Santorum 19%
Newt Gingrich 13%
(who cares about the rest?)
I'm not surprised that Paul and Romney are neck and neck. But freaking Santorum is at 19?! Just two weeks ago he was barely cracking 4%!

And now 1% of the precincts are reporting in, and we have-
Rick Santorum 26%
Ron Paul 23%
Mitt Romney 18%
Newt Gingrich 16%.

Gotta love watching these counters sorting their piles of paper out. Such fancy, fool-proof technology!

8:40- Bahaha- CNN: History has shown us that Republicans can count really fast. (Yes, I'm back to CNN. But they are still bugging me.)

8:35- Drudge Report held their own non-scientific online caucus today. Unfortunately, voters could vote more than once, so the results are completely unreliable. But here's the results anyway-
PAUL 33.55%
ROMNEY 20.5%
PERRY 7.3%

8:32- CNN says there are 809 sites holding the caucuses. I must reword my joke appropriately. That would be 148 per location, and 100 plaid flannel shirts on my TV set tonight.You'd think that they would dress a little bit nicer knowing that all of the news cameras in the country are on them tonight.

8:26- Wow, you have to check this out- http://twitpic.com/82ufvq  It is the ad that Gingrich is running in tomorrow's Union-Leader. Talk about inflammatory! Which reminds me, in the same interview where he called Romney a liar, he took credit for "beating the Soviets" with Reagan. This ad is going to be a news story tomorrow. 

8:22- There are 1,774 precincts in Iowa tonight, and hopefully about 120,000 voters will turn out. That is roughly 68 people per caucus. Or 40 plaid flannel shirts per location.

8:15- Oh look, Fox News has "entrance polls" too. And Karl Rove. I need to change the channel again. But whoever that blond chick is they have at the desk, I like her hair. I wonder what color she uses?

8:07- did you see where Gingrich called Romney a liar today? I used to have a lot of respect for Gingrich. He was my second choice for a while. But his tempestuous, toddler-like behavior blaming everyone else, and getting off topic lately, has completely turned me off. His new message is "I'm on the high road and everyone is throwing things at me!"

8:00- CNN is attempting to be interesting tonight by doing "entrance polls" instead of "exit polls" right now. The doors should be shutting to start the caucuses right now. Once the doors are shut, in theory, no one else can enter.
If you are from a Primary state you are familiar with the concept of a line outside of a polling place that keeps campaigners out. A line is placed clearly outside of a polling place, marking where campaign reps are not allowed to cross. The idea behind the line is to allow voters to vote without pressure. In the Iowa caucus, it is almost the opposite. There will be campaign reps inside the caucus meeting, and they are allowed to speak. My father was present at the last Iowa caucus, and tells me he had a bad experience with the candidate Alan Keyes getting in his face and getting rather rude with him. (My father was representing a different campaign, and was not a voter.)

7:57- I won't be watching CNN much longer. These odd little peg people are demeaning to my intelligence. Time to turn the channel.

7:50 - Starting off watching CNN. Reporter just asked (regarding Gingrich) "Is 4th place the new 3rd place?" SERIOUSLY?? When did fourth or third place ever matter? And no, fourth is fourth. There is no "the new" in this scenario. Lame.

1 comment:

  1. Really enjoyed following your live-blog comments on election night! Once you get some sleep, I'd be interested to hear your take on what this means for Romney.


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