Thoughts on the Day After Iowa

Mitt won Iowa! It still hasn't quite sunk in with me yet that it really happened. A Mormon won in the evangelical state! I work a few hours a week at a local bookstore. I had a customer today check out with several political books and felt comfortable asking if he had watched the caucus returns last night/this morning. In response I got an upsetting earful of commentary from a "conservative" professor of political science and history about how the Republican Party is going to hell in a hand basket for letting Mitt Romney win. "Don't they know what electing a Mormon will do to this country?" I really weighed my options between politely dropping into the conversation that I am LDS, versus blatantly, proudly and forthrightly shoving it in his face that I am LDS, or just letting it go. I asked where he is a professor, and when he gave me the town name, rather than the name of the school, I decided to let it go.
Lynchburg, VA. Home of Liberty University, founded by Jerry Falwell. Evangelical to the core and sometimes rather vicious about it.
He burst my bubble. I was very excited about the Romney win last night. I think he will win New Hampshire without breaking a sweat or irritating an ulcer. And hopefully that means riding some serious momentum into South Carolina and Florida. It is exciting to me that any candidate can garner that kind of support! But to hear a supposedly strong and active conservative Republican speak with such vile and hatred? It just worries me that in 8 months from now at the convention we're going to see a third party breakaway, rather than a rally around the candidate, which will mean a guaranteed win for Obama. I really hope people aren't so bigoted towards Mormons as to let that happen.
After this man went off on Romney and Mormons (and then on Gingrich and Reagan- how anyone can call themselves a conservative GOP and not like Reagan is beyond me), and he had checked out he spotted the new Glenn Beck book about George Washington as he walked out. He stopped and bought it (ahem, fell victim to our carefully calculated marketing techniques designed to encourage impulse purchases), and then said to me, "Should be good for a laugh."
As for me, I'm still excited about the Romney win. I think it is fantastic. I think Rick Santorum is a good man, and maybe just won some points for himself in the vice presidential sweeps. But really? He isn't presidential material, and he has no chance of winning elsewhere.
I won't miss Michele Bachmann in the race. I think Rick Perry needs to man up and drop out. Newt Gingrich seems hellbent on destroying Romney, no matter what it does to the party. I don't think anyone is looking at him anymore as the viable second choice. As for Ron Paul? Well, what can anyone think of Ron Paul? He is what he is. And he won't be much more than that.

Live commenting the Iowa Caucus

I'll be updating this blog post throughout the night. Hit refresh periodically to see it all. I will write new info above the older info (pushing the earliest comments to the lower part of the post).

2:36- And Iowa officially, AND FINALLY, calls it for Mitt Romney by 8 votes- ‎30015 to 30007.
And the CNN heads all finally combust into laughter.
GOODNIGHT!
Wait, Wow. MITT ROMNEY JUST WON IOWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dang!

2:26- CNN hasn't completely called it for Romney and the 14 votes, because they are waiting for official word from the state party, but they have done some math that proves the 14 vote theory. And on that happy note, I AM GOING TO BED.
HISTORY HAS BEEN MADE! By who? I'm not really sure. But I'm okay with that.

And now Edith and Carol in Iowa are trending on Twitter. Priceless.
Even more priceless, CNN says the state is going to make it official any minute now.


2:20-

May I just point out that all around the country people are staying up all night to hear the Iowa results, and yet the precinct chairs in Iowa were asleep?!

2:15- John King looks like he can barely keep from laughing as these ladies in Iowa get all defensive on the phone. BUT! It looks like the interns at CNN figured out where the missing votes were before the state party did. If the very tired sounding lady on the phone was right, Romney 437, Santorum 354, which would put Romney just barely over the top.

2:07- CNN is losing it and talking about I don't know what. Meanwhile, the Twitter rumor about Romney winning by 14 is getting bigger. WOULD SOME CREDIBLE OUTLET PLEASE CONFIRM?! People need to go to bed. (which, believe me, includes the CNN talking heads tonight.)
I've officially lost it. I can't stop laughing. The fact that CNN had to call and wake up someone who had to go knock on a sleeping friend's door to figure out where the missing votes are is getting to be too funny.
Oh but now the woken up lady is telling us that Romney won by a few votes. This is ridiculous.
Next time, let's have them vote with cows. 

2:03- hot from Twitter (which keep in mind earlier today/yesterday/something reported Fidel Castro had died) - @cbsjancrawford: Romney team says he won by 14 votes. Just talked to state party officials.

1:58- Clinton County farmers harvested 214,403 acres of corn and 104,021 acres of soybeans, and produced 81,541 hogs and 58,221 head of cattle.
And apparently they didn't teach simple arithmetic in Clinton County because this is taking WAY TOO LONG!

1:55- If I wasn't quite so sleepy and loopy right now, I'd be making a wisecrack about how it figures that we are waiting on CLINTON for the final votes.
There are 49,116 people in Clinton County, Iowa. Stay tuned to find out how many cows they have.

1:47- I met Anderson Cooper in Haiti once. Here's a picture I took of my friend with him. I was holding the camera, and didn't get my own picture taken with him.

For the record, there wasn't a lot of giggling going on in Haiti.

FOR THE LOVE, can we just get the final numbers in?!

1:46- Yes, yes, I did just get back out of bed to turn on the TV just in case Anderson Cooper giggles again.
Oh and now Santorum is up by 4.
(I JUST WANT TO GO TO BED!) (and hear Anderson Cooper giggle)

1:36 - Two words for you- ONE VOTE

Hey look, they finally cracked Romney's old score.

1:29- And it all comes down to Keokuk and Clinton Counties. I had a very bad experience once involving Keokuk, IA. I misspelled it on a document (while working on a presidential campaign) and it was seen by "the public." I got reamed for it. I've held a grudge ever since. Tonight is not helping.
There are approximately 10,500 people living in Keokuk County, according to Wikipedia. The median household income there is $34,025, which suddenly makes me feel very rich. There are 25,601 cows in Keokuk. And no, I am not making that up. 

1:22- here's a shocker- the Drudge Report "online caucus" that had Ron Paul so heavily winning? Yeah, not only was it wrong, but also just further proof that Paulies like to bomb online polls.
I wonder if the 58 people who wasted their votes on Cain are regretting that right now?

1:10- Now I know they are just messing with my head. Washington Post is reporting 100% precincts in, and Santorum at 29,908, Romney at 29,874. Which of course would be fewer votes than CNN's 99% reporting in.
Sometimes, instant, fast media is not a good thing.

I have a theory that Rick Perry is really going back to Texas to 'reassess' because he couldn't find a hotel room in New Hampshire. Jim Bob Duggar just bought them all out for his kids.

1:06 (I have to be at work in 8 hours. Oy vey.)
Santorum- 29,944
Romney- 29,926
Romney's 08 number? 29,949.
Again, I say, oy vey.

And may I just ask, exactly how long can we keep saying "99% of precincts reporting??"

12:53- Tell me the guy in the background doesn't look like Al Gore-

Oh! New Numbers-
Santorum- 29,914
Romney- 29,879

And it is Santorum up by 35. (Stop the madness!)

Oh wait, no, that has changed already!

Santorum- 29,924

Romney- 29,911

This is turning into a cruel game of torture where Iowa just drags out their 15 minutes of fame for as long as they possibly can.

12:49- 97.9% of precincts reporting in from Story County, IA. There is a ONE VOTE DIFFERENCE in Romney's favor right now.

12:46- you gotta hand it to Drudge for knowing how to make a visual statement-

12:42- Here's food for thought (and not about corn)- Santorum isn't even on the ballot in Virginia.
We're still down to 5 votes and 99% of precincts reporting. Even after that last precinct gets checked in, and we call it for the night, it won't matter. There will obviously be some serious recounting overnight. But at least we won't be subjected to hearing about hanging and dimpled chads again.
You have to admit, Ann Romney would bring some serious class and grace back to the White House.

Iowa is in 24 hours- a last look at the polls

With Iowa upon us in just 24 hours, we'll forgo a deep look at the other polls this week and only look at Iowa.
Last week in Iowa-
Ron Paul was leading by a .5% smidge. Mitt Romney was hot on his heels, and Newt Gingrich has dropped into no man's land. And Michele Bachmann, after some big claims about how she was winning was spotted back in 5th place.
And then, out of nowhere in midweek, new numbers came out to show Rick Santorum was suddenly in third place.

Click on image to enlarge

And we're down to the finish line, where all we can do is it and wait to see if the polls really do reflect the real voters.
Romney has the overall average lead by 1.3%, with Ron Paul too close for comfort. Rick Santorum really is in third place consistently 2-3 points ahead of Newt Gingrich (who would have ever imagined that?). And Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, and Jon Huntsman can all pack up and go to New Hampshire now. Oh wait, Huntsman already did.
You have to be impressed with that little tiny brown line of Santorum's on the chart. All slow and steady for so long, then jumping up at the last second. Good job, Little Brown Line. You are the little inchworm that could!
So who will it be, folks? Romney or Paul in the winner's circle?
I just want to throw this out there-
The Little Inchworm That Could could also really throw things off tomorrow. Take a good look at all the lines on the cart. Do you see how many sudden spikes there are? Santorum really and truly could be spiking serendipitously here. Iowa is a big bandwagon state. They like to jump on the next big thing (as seen by the roller coaster of lines). The two most recent polls show Santorum within 4 points of Paul and Romney. If that momentum carries for another 24 hours (and go look at all the political headlines- Santorum is the news), he really could have a serious chance of winning Iowa. With the margin of error on these things, plus his growing momentum, we really could see an upset tomorrow.
(I'll be glued to my TV set, live updating I am sure.)
At the same time, Romney, according to these polls, could be the winner. And if he wins New Hampshire next week (which we have every reason to think he could), that would be history making. The only non-incumbent candidate to win in both states since 1972 is Bob Dole in 1996. (For reasons I cannot explain yet, all data stops in 1972.) This would be a massive victory for Mitt Romney to say the least.
But then again, it is just as likely that Ron Paul could win Iowa tomorrow. He is more than a good 20 points down from Romney in New Hampshire right now, but in second place. An Iowa victory for him could easily get him a huge uptick. But would it put him within striking distance of Romney. But the real threat in New Hampshire is if Santorum wins in Iowa. We can easily expect to see support for Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and maybe even Paul swing in his favor. A Santorum victory in Iowa could mean an upset everywhere. Or not. He could win Iowa, Romney will win New Hampshire, and Gingrich could (maybe, possibly) still win South Carolina. Which would lead to one very crazy Super Tuesday the following week in several states.
If Romney wins both states though, expect to see Gingrich start to seriously falter in South Carolina. Romney is in a distant, but strong second there. He could very easily overtake and pass Gingrich if Iowa and NH go well.
And if that happens... well, things could get very interesting in Florida and elsewhere. Well, interesting if you are a Romney fan anyway.

Get details and some fun facts about the Iowa Caucus here.


Food for thought-

Romney lost in Iowa in 2008 with 29,949 votes, or  25.2%, to Mike Huckabee's 40,841 votes ( 34.4%).
It is incredibly conceivable that Romney can win Iowa this time around with less voters than he had when he lost. In 2008 there were roughly 120,000 voters in the caucus. If that same number holds true tomorrow (which is unlikely, as voter turnout is expected to be low- which irritates me to no end. The state insists on being "first in the nation," gobbling up campaign monies, dominating politics, getting all sorts of kickbacks, and then they don't even bother to all come out for the caucus? RUDE!)- and Romney gets his expected 23%, that is only 27,600 votes. He could very easily win with less than it took to lose. Go figure. 

What's a Caucus Anyway?

2008 Iowa Caucus (linked to source: Iowa Caucus)

A primary election looks and feels a lot like a general election for the most part, except that in some states they only let you exclusively vote for a party you are already registered with. You show up, you cast your ballot in a private booth, you leave. Simple enough.
A caucus does not operate the same way. First of all, if you are in an Iowa caucus, there may be a lot of C-SPAN and national news cameras watching your every move. It isn't quite as private as voting booth. Second, a caucus is a big group meeting. The political party members come together (it is open only to registered voters who are registered to a specific party), and have a group meeting. They say the Pledge of Allegiance, sometimes even open with a prayer by a local evangelical, conduct a few minutes of business, the campaigns are given a few minutes to make their final pleas, and then they open things up to a vote. Everyone will write a name down on a piece of paper and pass it in. A caucus official will count the votes with a representative from each campaign intently watching over his or her shoulder. The votes are counted and recorded on an official form. The results are announced to the waiting group and media cameras. The official numbers are sent to the state party along with an officially designated human being for security purposes. The numbers are aggregated from around the state, and an official report is made to the media.

A few interesting facts about the Iowa Caucus-
Anyone who will be of legal voting age in November for the general elections, is allowed to vote in the caucus. So there will be 17 yr olds voting in the caucus on Tuesday. (High school juniors!)
There are 1,774 caucus locations across the state. There are 99 counties in the state.
Only candidate Rick Santorum has stumped in all 99 counties!
Voting will begin at 7 p.m. all across the state (Central time).
3,062,309 people in Iowa.
3,850,000 cows in Iowa
That's 1.26 cows per person, or .8 people per cow. Either way, a lot of hamburgers.
569,633 live in the greater Des Moines area (people, not cows, but then again, probably cows too)
613,521 "active" registered Republicans (6.3 cows)
A Iowan Angus cow costs $1000 (you think I'm making that up, don't you? I'm not. See?)

There are 6 Chik-Fil-A restaurants in Iowa.