Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Live from New Hampshire! It's Primary Tuesday Night!

I will be live blogging my inner monologue throughout the New Hampshire returns tonight. Just like last week, I will be putting new thoughts at the top, pushing the older thoughts down. PLEASE leave comments! I'd love to "chat!" I'll also be on twitter at @swingstatevoter.

12:21 am- For all those on Twitter saying that Romney didn't beat his old numbers, he is currently at 91,460 votes (39%) with 92% precincts reporting. That would be 15,914 more than he had last time.

Interesting to note, that if you add up Romney and Huntsman's votes for a total of 130,632 people, out of the approximately 229,003 votes cast so far, and you have more than half of New Hampshire voters voting for a Mormon. Not too shabby considering how many people kept saying for months they would never vote for a Mormon!

10:22- Everyone has made their speeches. And Romney won. Nothing left to see here, except that Vermin Supreme has 542 votes so far for 1% of the Democrat vote. I've moved on to NCIS.

9:39- In case you are curious, Gingrich is only beating Santorum by 132 votes for 4th place right now. I'd say that bandwagon has come to a screeching halt.
More newsworthy- my math on how many people will vote for Mitt is holding up thus far.

9:17- Mitt's victory speech was inspiring and invigorating. The Ron Paul speech actually made me yawn and want to turn the channel. MAKE IT STOP.

9pm- CNN just broke down the voters by demographic. Romney won with the conservative vote. Take that moderates!

8:47- Prepare yourself for some amateur math. According to my math, Romney currently has 18,600 votes for 36%. 50,663 votes have been cast. An estimated 300,000 people will vote today. So roughly 17% of the votes have come in. Or, 83% have not come in (249,337 remaining to be counted- ROUGHLY). If we take the 249K (and round it to 249,000 for easier math) and say that we expect Romney to keep at 36%, that will give him 89,640 votes tonight. In 2008 he took second with 75,546 votes, and 32%. McCain won '08 with 88,571 votes. So for all those who said Romney has to outdo 2008, there you go. He did. Or at least according to my math he will.

8:23- Wow, tonight really is going to be easier than Iowa. CNN just called it for Paul in 2nd and Huntsman in 3rd. The battle is now for fourth place. Or really, the battle to see who will drop out first- Newt or Santorum? I think the real question now is who will get more votes tonight- Rick Perry or Vermin Supreme (if he wins the nomination, everyone gets free ponies. true story!)

Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Vermin Supreme. Who, as of 8:30pm, is beating Rick Perry in the primary!

8:10- Doh! I just made a stupid mistake thinking Bob Dole won in NH in 1996 and replied to CNN's Political Analyst David Gergen on Twitter. I quickly caught my mistake and deleted my comment. Apparently he saw it anyway, retweeted me, and corrected my mistake- to his 21,000 followers. Ouch. Worst part? I worked on the Buchanan campaign in 1996! I really did know better!

8:02pm- Apparently CNN doesn't want to keep us hanging until 2:30 am tonight. They have already gone ahead and projected Mitt Romney as the winner! NICE!
This is the first time in history (keep in mind that is only a 30-40 year history) that the same person has won both Iowa and New Hampshire in a non-incumbent year!

7pm- Some people feel that Romney has to do better tonight than he did in 2008. I'm not sure that I agree. I think it is interesting to see if he does beat that number, but I don't think it is significant if he does or doesn't.

2008 NH results-
McCain 88,571 (37.1%)
Romney 75,546 (31.6%)
Huckabee 26,859 (11.2%)
Giuliani 20,439 (8.6%)
Paul 18,308 (7.7%)
Thompson 2,894 (1.2)
Hunter 1,225 (.5%)
Keyes 203 (.1%
Tancredo 80 (0)
If it matters whether or not Romney beats his old number, it should matter that Paul beats his. The returns are coming in now, so let's see what happens!

6:40- the early returns are coming in even though the polls don't close until 8 pm I think.
Romney 36.8%, Paul 26.3%, Hunstman 21.1%, Gingrich 10.5%, Perry 5.3%.
Anyone else noticing the lack of Santorum on that list?? (Source: http://www.zimbio.com/NH+Primary+Results/articles/EXmn7yoxzif/New+Hampshire+Exit+Polls+2012)

1 comment:

  1. Can't wait to follow your SC adventures-Have fun!


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