Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Who you want to win in NH and why!

Let's take one last look at New Hampshire before the fun starts tonight.
Here are the polls that were discussed yesterday-
Click on image to enlarge. Source: Real Clear Politics
It really helps to take a look at the graph and history of changes when looking forward right now. Understanding momentum and bandwagons is important this week. Santorum, who had no following at all in Iowa previously, came in second thanks to a serendipitous bandwagon. But this week it appears to be Huntsman with the loud and rowdy bandwagon. Everybody jump in! Let's see where this will take us! So here's what you need to know depending on who your horse in the race is-

Romney Supporters-
If you support Romney, you can rest easy that he is highly likely to win New Hampshire. But you need to be looking forward to South Carolina and Florida, where he is leading, but not confidently enough. Santorum is gaining in SC, so a Romney fan really wants to see Santorum in third, fourth, or fifth place tonight. (Sixth place is locked up by Perry.) Romney fans really want to see Gingrich in fifth place as well. Why? It will kill any buzz Santorum and Gingrich may have, and dry up their fundraising, if they do poorly in NH. Ron Paul doesn't have much support in SC, so he isn't a real threat there.
The ideal results tonight for a Romney fan would be 1. Romney, 2. Paul, 3. Huntsman, 4/5 Gingrich Santorum.

Paul Supporters-
Only ever want to see Ron Paul win. But looking deeper into it, a Ron Paul path to success tonight would be tthe same as the Romney path. They want to see Huntsman take third, and be able to build on his momentum in SC. That would take the wind out of the Gingrich and Santorum sails. Huntsman has little chance of really gaining too much in SC. But it would open the way for Paul to again make it to second place in SC. (He's currently a distant fourth.)

Gingrich Supporters-
Tonight is all about making it to second place. A third place "victory" isn't going to help or hurt. But in politics if it isn't helping, it is hurting. With Huntsman, Gingrich, and Santorum neck and neck (and neck) right now, third place really is up for grabs. But the momentum (there has got to be another word for this other than momentum) isn't in Gingrich's favor. Fourth place would be a disaster, and fifth place the ultimate disaster. The only good outcome tonight would be second place. Third is okay, but not great.

Santorum Supporters-
Tonight is the real test. Everyone ran like lemmings to vote for Santorum in Iowa, and then actually stopped to hear him speak at the debates this week. I don't think people liked what they heard. They voted and then gave him a chance. It will be really interesting to see if people liked what they heard when they started paying attention. If he doesn't get third place tonight, he will absolutely have to take first or second in South Carolina. (He's currently in second, threatening a weak first place Romney.) But expect the lemmings to jump ship and run to whoever takes second place in New Hampshire tonight. Depending on how much money he has in the war chest (or in his case, what may only be a piggy bank) he should make it on to Florida regardless of how poorly he does in SC. The real question is whether or not he can survive past that. If he performs well tonight, he survives pass Florida. Otherwise? Highly doubtful.

Huntsman Supporters-
All both of you out there have done a great job timing his peak in New Hampshire. Huntsman is the one to watch tonight, no question about it. He is a real threat for third place. But thanks to his great showing in the debates over the weekend, and a lot of extra media attention, he has a real shot of riding this wave to a peak tonight. He could quite possibly take second place. And if he does, that changes everything for everybody. First, all of the Mormon Romney supporters will have to reevaluate which bandwagon they want seats on. Second, it means more money for him, less for everyone else. He's in last place in SC, but only a tiny 1 point behind Perry. If he can take second tonight, and gain in popularity over the next 10 days, (which he likely would) he becomes a serious threat in SC. I don't know why Gingrich and Santorum are out there beating up on Romney this week. They should be attacking Huntsman, because he is the one that they have to beat.

Perry Supporters-
Don't exist.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Your comments are always welcome here!