Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Delegate Math- how Santorum won the states, but Romney won the delegates

Here is what the headlines all say-
CNN

Fox News

Yahoo Conglomerate

 And my absolute favorite-
Daily Beast/Newsweek

Now, I don't mean to make this site completely 100% pro-Romney. But yes, my biases show through. I don't apologize for that, since apparently I'm not the only one incapable of not showing bias.
All of the major news outlets ran headlines promoting Santorum. And yes, Santorum did win two states last night. But there were 3 states and a territory in play! But when you count up the delegate vote, guess what? Santorum DID NOT WIN!
Romney took home the 9 delegates from American Samoa. (I am very biased when it comes to Samoa. After all, I lived there as a child, and my father played a part in them becoming a territory. So yes, again, I am biased, and unapologetically so.) American Samoa, which, for all of you haoles, is pronounced SAW-mo-uh, not suh-MO-uh (not one pundit got that right last night), is a little island nowhere near Hawaii, hanging out on the international date line.
About 70 people turned out in AS to vote for Romney. Only registered GOP could vote in the caucus, so few attended. It's rare in American Samoa for anyone to officially register as a Republican or Democrat because local elected officials don't run on party lines.

American Samoa
Romney 70


Mississippi
Romney 88,619 (31%)
Santorum 94,909 (33%)

Hawaii
Romney 4,250 (45%)
Santorum 2,369 (25%)

Alabama
Romney 180,184 (29%)
Santorum 214,493 (35%)

Now for basic math-
Romney = 88619+ 4250+180184+70= 273,123
Santorum= 94909+2369+214493= 311,711
Santorum lead by 38,648.

Now, for those of you who like to call out my bias- look I just showed you how Santorum won the popular count.

But back to the delegates- here's last night's haul.
41 Romney
35 Santorum
24 Gingrich
1 Paul

Now we can't possibly have an election in the United States without someone complaining about the electoral college, delegates, and apparently now the delegate system. The delegate system is based on the electoral college. The electoral college goes all the way back to Constitution Convention of 1787, and before that to the Centurial Assembly system of the Roman Republic (your random fact of the day, your welcome).
The GOP convention and delegate system has changed a few times since it began in 1856. We've been using the current state by state delegate system for about 40 years (early 1970s).
This is me going rogue here. My gut tells me that professor of history Newt Gingrich is up to something. He's a smart man. Yes, he's as egotistical as they come. But he is smart, and he knows better than anyone else that he has no chance of winning. So why is he staying in the race? My gut says he wants to change the delegate allocation system. I don't know what he wants to change or how he wants to change it. But he's not running on a platform (like Ron Paul) where he wants to bring some specific issue to the convention and get it noticed. In fact, other than his current gas price stunt, and the moon colony thing, I can't think of any specific issue he has really talked much about. But he has to be up to something. And my gut says it is going to be something to do with changing the delegate counts. Again, this is a man who is a professor of history, with a mind that knows details and procedures like no other. It fits. I think he will stay in the race right up till the convention, so that he can make a threat or ultimatum to change the system.
Anyone want to argue with me on that?

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