Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday Outcomes vs Predicitions


Time to compare my predictions for Super Tuesday against the actual outcomes. Ironically, my predictions were not as biased in my candidate's favor as I thought they would be!

Alaska- 27 delegates - Actual- Romney 8, Santorum 7, Paul 6, Gingrich 3.
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Paul 8, Santorum 5, Gingrich 2.

Georgia- 76 delegates- Gingrich 53, Romney 20, Santorum 3, Paul 0.
Prediction: Gingrich 36 delegates, Romney 15, Santorum 15, Paul 10.

Idaho- 32 delegates- Romney 32.
Prediction: Romney 20 delegates, Paul 10, Santorum 2, Gingrich 0.

Massachusetts- 41 delegates- Romney 38, (3 remain unpledged).
Prediction: Romney 30 delegates, Santorum 5, Paul 5, Gingrich 1.

North Dakota- 28 delegates- Santorum 11, Paul 8, Romney 7, Gingrich 2.
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Santorum 8, Gingrich 5, Paul 3.

Ohio- 66 delegates, proportional- Romney 35, Santorum 19, Gingrich/Paul 0. 3 unpledged.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 25, Gingrich 10, Paul 6.

Oklahoma- 43 delegates, proportional - Santorum 14, Romney 13, Gingrich 13, Paul 0.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 10, Paul 8, Gingrich 0.

Tennessee- 58 delegates- Santorum 27, Romney 15, Gingrich 8, Paul 0.
Prediction: Santorum 22 delegates, Romney 18, Gingrich 10, Paul 8.

Vermont- 17 delegates- Romney 9, Paul 4, Santorum 4, Gingrich 0.
Prediction: Romney 10 delegates, Santorum 4, Paul 3, Gingrich 0.

Virginia- 49 delegates- Romney 43, Paul 3, unpledged 3.
Prediction: Romney 40 delegates, Paul 9





My total prediction-
Romney- 192 Actual= 219
Santorum- 111 Actual = 85
Paul- 70 Actual =21
Gingrich- 64 Actual =79.
 
Romney now has 429 delegates, compared with 169 for Rick Santorum, 118 for Newt Gingrich and 67 for Ron Paul.

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