Super Tuesday Outcomes vs Predicitions

Time to compare my predictions for Super Tuesday against the actual outcomes. Ironically, my predictions were not as biased in my candidate's favor as I thought they would be!

Alaska- 27 delegates - Actual- Romney 8, Santorum 7, Paul 6, Gingrich 3.
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Paul 8, Santorum 5, Gingrich 2.

Georgia- 76 delegates- Gingrich 53, Romney 20, Santorum 3, Paul 0.
Prediction: Gingrich 36 delegates, Romney 15, Santorum 15, Paul 10.

Idaho- 32 delegates- Romney 32.
Prediction: Romney 20 delegates, Paul 10, Santorum 2, Gingrich 0.

Massachusetts- 41 delegates- Romney 38, (3 remain unpledged).
Prediction: Romney 30 delegates, Santorum 5, Paul 5, Gingrich 1.

North Dakota- 28 delegates- Santorum 11, Paul 8, Romney 7, Gingrich 2.
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Santorum 8, Gingrich 5, Paul 3.

Ohio- 66 delegates, proportional- Romney 35, Santorum 19, Gingrich/Paul 0. 3 unpledged.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 25, Gingrich 10, Paul 6.

Oklahoma- 43 delegates, proportional - Santorum 14, Romney 13, Gingrich 13, Paul 0.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 10, Paul 8, Gingrich 0.

Tennessee- 58 delegates- Santorum 27, Romney 15, Gingrich 8, Paul 0.
Prediction: Santorum 22 delegates, Romney 18, Gingrich 10, Paul 8.

Vermont- 17 delegates- Romney 9, Paul 4, Santorum 4, Gingrich 0.
Prediction: Romney 10 delegates, Santorum 4, Paul 3, Gingrich 0.

Virginia- 49 delegates- Romney 43, Paul 3, unpledged 3.
Prediction: Romney 40 delegates, Paul 9. 

My total prediction-

Romney- 192 Actual= 219

Santorum- 111 Actual = 85

Paul- 70 Actual =21

Gingrich- 64 Actual =79.

 

Romney now has 429 delegates, compared with 169 for Rick Santorum, 118 for Newt Gingrich and 67 for Ron Paul.

Super Tuesday Predictions

Spoiler Alert! If you don't like knowing what to expect on Super Tuesday, you have been warned.
Here's what to expect tomorrow- the polls and my personal predictions. (Note- I am making my predictions without taking the time to see how the states divide up the delegates (winner takes half? by congressional district? truly proportional?) Nonetheless, I feel confident overall.)

Alaska- 27 delegates, proportional (caucus) - There are no available polls for this state, so I'll base my predictions on the national polls- Romney 39%, Santorum 26%, Gingrich 14%, Paul 12%. Except in this case, my gut says Alaska would be a Paul friendly state.
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Paul 8, Santorum 5, Gingrich 2.

Georgia- 76 delegates, proportional- Last week's polls (2/26) showed Gingrich 34%, Santorum 25%, Romney 21.5%, Paul 8.8%. But this week Gingrich has actually increased that lead to about 40(ish)%, and Romney has taken second place.
Prediction: Gingrich 36 delegates, Romney 15, Santorum 15, Paul 10.

Idaho- 32 delegates, proportional (caucus)- no available polls. But I'll call it more than 40% for Romney.
Prediction: Romney 20 delegates, Paul 10, Santorum 2, Gingrich 0.

Massachusetts- 41 delegates, proportional- expect Romney to win by a landslide (polls indicate a 40 point lead)
Prediction: Romney 30 delegates, Santorum 5, Paul 5, Gingrich 1.

North Dakota- 28 delegates, proportional- no available polls, so again, I'll go with the national polls, but this time straight across the board (as compared to my Alaska feelings).
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Santorum 8, Gingrich 5, Paul 3.

Ohio- 66 delegates, proportional - Santorum and Romney are neck and neck. Most polls have them tied or within a point of each other. But this is a meeting in the middle at the moment. Santorum is sliding down, while Romney is climbing up. Expect it to be close, with a tie for delegate count.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 25, Gingrich 10, Paul 6.

Oklahoma- 43 delegates, proportional - most recent polls are over 2 weeks old. At that time Santorum had a 20 point lead. I'll call it for Santorum, since no one else has invested any time or resources there.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 10, Paul 8, Gingrich 0.

Tennessee- 58 delegates, proportional- a last minute poll shows things are almost tied up in a state that had been expected to be Santorum and Gingrich friendly.That poll shows Santorum 35%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 20%, and Paul 9%. And again, this is a Santorum on the downhill, and Romney on the uphill situation. But there has been early voting that gives Santorum the advantage.
Prediction: Santorum 22 delegates, Romney 18, Gingrich 10, Paul 8.

Vermont- 17 delegates, proportional- most recent poll is 2 weeks old, but had Romney with a modest lead.
Prediction: Romney 10 delegates, Santorum 4, Paul 3, Gingrich 0.

Virginia- 49 delegates, proportional - Only Romney and Paul are on the VA ballot, because the other two candidates failed to meet requirements. Romney leads currently with 69%, Paul 26%. Write-in votes are not allowed.
Prediction: Romney 40 delegates, Paul 9. 

My total prediction-

Romney- 192

Santorum- 111

Paul- 70

Gingrich- 64

Yes, I am giving Ron Paul more delegates than Gingrich. Call me crazy. But I really do think tomorrow will be Gingrich's swan song (which will sound a lot like a dying duck). I also predict some serious whining on Santorum's part about how Romney spent SOOO much more money than he did and only BARELY beat him.
Tonight I heard a Santo surrogate talking about how Santorum has won more counties than Romney, which is some of the most ridiculous spin I've ever heard. Winning a sparsely populated county in Iowa is not the same as winning a densely populated county in Detroit.
The math is simple- to date, Romney has won 52% of all delegates so far. My math for tomorrow has him winning 44% of the delegates. And really, if Georgia wasn't so heavily for Gingrich (which it rightfully is voting for the native son), the numbers would skew more in Romney's favor. Even in the states where Romney doesn't win (with the exception of Georgia), he's going to walk away with close to 40-50% of the delegates in that state.
Of course, as I type this, I am watching CNN, where John King has just said that now Oklahoma might be closer than I am giving it.

All Eyes on Super Tuesday

Upcoming Republican Primaries-

Saturday, March 3- 
Washington State, 43 delegates, proportional
Latest poll 2/19, Santorum 38%, Romney 27%, Paul 15%, Gingrich 12%

"Super Tuesday," March 6-
Alaska- 27 delegates, proportional (caucus)

Georgia- 76 delegates, proportional
Latest poll 2/26, Gingrich 34%, Santorum 25%, Romney 21.5%, Paul 8.8%

Idaho- 32 delegates, proportional (caucus)

Massachusetts- 41 delegates, proportional

North Dakota- 28 delegates, proportional

Ohio- 66 delegates, proportional
Latest poll 2/26- Santorum 37%, Romney 26%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%
Noteworthy, Santorum has only had the lead in Ohio for 2 weeks. At the end of January he had less than 10%. Romney has maintained about 20-25% there consistently for several months.

Oklahoma- 43 delegates, proportional

Tennessee- 58 delegates, proportional

Vermont- 17 delegates, proportional

Virginia- 49 delegates, proportional
Only Romney and Paul are on the VA ballot, because the other two candidates failed to meet requirements. Romney leads currently with 53%, Paul 23%. Write-in votes are not allowed.

Saturday, March 10-
Guam- 9 delegates, proportional

Kansas- 40 delegates, proportional

Northern Mariana- 9 delegates, proportional

Virgin Islands- 9 delegates, proportional

Wyoming- 29, proportional (ongoing now-March 10)

That is 576 delegates up for grabs over the next 10 days!
 

It's Not a Party Without Donald Trump. It's Not the Media Without a Circus.

The Donald at a GOP/Tea Party Event in June 2011, Photo Credit: E. McBride

Yesterday, without question, Mitt Romney made a mistake.

It was a stupid mistake, a simple case of a misplaced pause as he was speaking, and a poorly phrased sentence in a live interview.

By now we all know what he said (but I'll repeat it here for future reference when in a few weeks we can't remember what the hullabaloo was all about today)-

"I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich; they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of America, the 90%, 95% of Americans right now who are struggling, and I'll continue to take that message across the nation."

Unfortunately he made an unfortunate pause after he said, "I'm not concerned about the very poor." It instantly skyrocketed into the headlines- but not really.

Gingrich struggles with state deadlines, while Indiana's signatures come under scrutiny

I started this blog after some negative experiences with voters on a day I was out collecting signatures for Mitt Romney to get on the ballot in Virginia. I was accused of all sorts of things that day, but the most interesting fallacy lobbed at me was that no other candidates were out collecting signatures. Maybe those supposedly well-informed voters just haven't been paying enough attention, because the state-by-state requirement to collect signatures is a hot topic this week.
Newt Gingrich may be suddenly enjoying a skyrocketing rise in the polls, and we will assume in his war chest as well, but his tardy to the party style is actually hurting him where it matters most- getting on the ballots. Each state has different rules for getting a candidate on the ballot for the state caucuses or primaries. (In Virginia a candidate must collect 10,000 signatures state-wide by mid-December.) Gingrich has already missed the requirements for getting on the Missouri ballot. The Missouri primary will be held on Tuesday, February 7, 2012.* Candidates for the presidential primary from Missouri's "established political parties" (Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, and Constitution) had to have 5,000 collected signatures filed by 5 p.m. on November 22, 2011.
Gingrich now faces possibly missing the Ohio deadline as well. Ohio is a part of the first major "Super Tuesday" on March 6, 2012. The Gingrich campaign is scrambling to turn in the required 1,000 signatures today** by 4pm. (See below for a big asterisk on confusing, emerging information, that will likely lead to a court battle by unhappy candidates in the near future.)

Mitt Romney's political director Rich Beeson pointed out that the best time to collect signatures — during the previous general and primary elections — has passed. (Which is exactly what this writer was doing.) Of course, it goes to note that back on November 8 when other campaigns were out collecting signatures, Gingrich was still battling Rick Perry for third place.
Not surprisingly the Gingrich team is blaming the complicated system (that all of the other candidates managed to work with) rather than admit that he and his team messed up. The mark of a true politician!
Meanwhile, in Indiana, a voter fraud investigation is underway as it is suspected that at least 150 collected petition signatures for now-President Obama were forgeries. Obama only collected 534 signatures in St. Joseph County, where a minimum of 500 were needed. (The Clinton campaign collected 704.) Without the forgeries, Obama would not have made it on to the ballot. (Note: in the final election Obama beat McCain with 58% of the vote in St. Joseph's County.)

Source
Washington Times "Gingrich struggles with state deadlines for filing"
Talking Points Memo "Newt Catches a Break on the Ohio Filing Deadline"
Fox News "2008 Voter Fraud Investigation Heats Up in Indiana"


*(Point of confusing clarification from different sources: Missouri will hold its primary on February 7th, 2012, but this will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention.)
**In Ohio, the deadline for filing to be on the primary ballot is 90 days before the primary on March 14, 2012 (in other words, today, December 7, 2011.) However, a new law has made its way through the state legislature moving the primary back to June, and effectively the state filing deadline. However, it gets a little tricky here because the new law won't be enacted until January 20, 2012. Making story even more complicated, according to Matt McClellan, spokesman for the Ohio Secretary of State, is that the candidates were advised by the Secretary’s office to adhere to the old December deadline just in case the legislature again changed the date of the primary (which it has done a few times in the last few months). So in other words, Gingrich et al better make that filing deadline today in order to be safer than sorry.