Showing posts with label Puerto Rico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Puerto Rico. Show all posts

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Score 1 for Romney (actually that's 33 for Romney)

Santorum sleeps on the job, Romney wins Puerto Rico

As of 6:30 p.m. ET, with about 10% of total ballots accounted for, according to some media outlets, Mitt Romney had 82% of the vote in Puerto Rico (10,000 votes). 
Apparently the Puerto Ricans were not swayed by Senator Shirtless who trailed in a distant second, at 9% with more than 1,000 votes.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Rick Santorum Beat Chuck Norris, but Romney Beat Santorum


Chuck Norris can count to infinity twice, but he can't beat Rick Santorum.
The previously unconquerable Chuck Norris made robocalls for Newt Gingrich in Alabama this week. But not even the roundhouse kicking icon was enough to score Gingrich a win. Or did Rick Santorum beat Chuck Norris??
Or did Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum?
Rick Santorum managed to sweep the South with victories in both Alabama and Mississippi. Gingrich took second, and Mitt Romney technically took third. If Ron Paul even knew there were primaries tonight, I'd be surprised.
While this is a major feat for Santorum, it doesn't actually help get anyone anywhere near closer to victory in the end. Because both states were proportional states, and the wins were nearly 30% splits, the delegates will get divided up equally. There were/are 107 delegates up for grabs today/last night. (We're still waiting on Hawaii and American Samoa to come in right now.) 47 in Alabama, 37 in Mississippi, 17 in Hawaii caucuses and six more in caucuses in American Samoa. It will probably divide up Santorum 29 delegates,  Gingrich 24 and Romney 22.
-- Corrected--
That was the AP prediction last night. Here are the updated, corrected numbers.
After Tuesday votes in Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii and American Samoa:
DELEGATES WON
41 Romney
35 Santorum
24 Gingrich
1 Paul
CNN Delegate Count, Source:http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries.html?hpt=hp_t1
Uh, yeah, so Santorum may have won two states, Romney walked away with the most delegates (again). So I stand by my earlier declaration. Rick Santorum may have beaten Chuck Norris, but Mitt Romney beat Rick Santorum.
And while it may seem crazy that Alabama and Mississippi even managed to be important in a GOP primary, it is even crazier that Puerto Rico is in play this week as well. In fact, Santorum mentioned it several times in his victory speech that he's headed there next. It couldn't possibly be because no one else is headed there, Romney just won all those [almost forgettable] other island protectorates, and PR has 23 winner take call delegates.
Residents of Illinois can look forward to a long week of negative ads and robocalls until their primary next Tuesday.
Santorum continues to fight the mathematical projections (that say he can't win), and Romney still has more delegates than everyone else combined. Depending on which news outlet you listen to, Romney may or may not amass enough delegates before the convention.
Gingrich's spox (Hogan?) said some disturbing things on CNN tonight. He really insinuated that Gingrich is sticking it out to the convention just to mess with the way the process currently works. It left me with a very uncomfortable feeling. Gingrich is a die-hard Republican. I trust him to not do anything to truly hurt the party. But I have no trouble picturing him wanting to change the primary process and doing all of this just for that purpose.

Monday, March 12, 2012

I read the news so you don't have to



Here is what happened in the last few days, and what you need to know for the next few days.
Santorum won in Kansas, and took home 33 delegates.
Romney won in Guam (9), Northern Marianas (9), and Virgin Islands (7), and took home 25 delegates. Plus he got 7 as the runner up in Kansas. And he won in Wyoming with 12. For a grand total of 44 delegates for the weekend.
This week brings us Alabama (50 proportional, primary), Mississippi (40, proportional), Hawaii (20, proportional caucus), American Samoa (9, proportional caucus)*, all on Tuesday, and then Missouri (52 proportional)**, and Puerto Rico (23, winner take all).
The following week includes Illinois (69 direct) and Louisiana (46 proportional).
Originally all expectations had been that the moderate from Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, would not do so hot in the South. Say what you will, but when has any Yankee done well in the South? But, in spite of expectations, the latest Mississippi's GOP poll showed Romney slightly ahead of Newt Gingrich, 34% to 32%, which was within the margin of error (MOE).
Meanwhile, a poll of likely voters in Alabama's primary showed Gingrich, who likes to pretend he's a Southerner because he used to live in Georgia, but he's actually from Pennsylvania, and has lived in DC longer, at 34% to 31% for Romney, a gap also within MOE.
Rick Santorum trailed in both polls -- 10 points behind Gingrich in Alabama and 12 points behind Romney in Mississippi.

According to CNN the delegate count is currently-
Romney- 458 delegates,
Santorum- 203,
Gingrich- 118
Paul- 66.


In what might be one of the strangest campaign claims yet this year, the Santorum camp sent out a memo claiming “Romney's math doesn't add up.” And then also said that they- Santorum- are doing better math-wise. They also claimed that Romney must win more than 50% of remaining delegates in order to capture the nomination.
Santorum himself said, "We're winning in the South, we're winning in the West, in the Midwest, we're winning really all across the country. And I understand Newt's sort of drawn his line in the sand here in Alabama and Mississippi. Where do you go from there?"
Can someone please show me these states he is winning in in the West? Cause the last I checked, Romney won Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, and Nevada. Romney even won Alaska, if you want to call that the West. Santorum has won Colorado.
But back to the memo on "Romney's math.” Anderson Cooper had a Gingrich and a Santorum spox on live tonight (did you know Santo, Ging, and Rom all have blond female spox? True story.). He gave the Santo girl a huge rope to defend the math statement. Poor girl was a train wreck. And then AC totally mocked her, but still gave her the chance to try and defend the statement. “How? How do you say a man who is beating you by 100% is losing?” Her answer was more or less, “Because we say so.”
Really it is Gingrich who has the most to lose the next few days. He's lagging in money and in momentum lately.

Public Policy Polling surveys showed a three-way tie in the Southern States. In Alabama, the three candidates were within 2 points of each other, inside the margin of error. In Mississippi, Gingrich led Romney by 33 percent to 31 percent, with Santorum at 27 percent. But I've poo-poo'd PPP polls before, and I'll do it again. I have yet to see them turn out accurately.
"About all we know for sure about Tuesday's primaries is that Ron Paul will finish last in them," Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in releasing the results. "Beyond that it's plausible that any of the candidates could finish between first and third in both Alabama and Mississippi."
Santorum has been actively touting the idea that a long drawn out process, and the possibility of a brokered convention would be good for conservatives, because they could slowly tear down Romney. Romney has been actively out there saying a brokered convention could split and hurt the party when they should be focusing on beating Obama.
The Gingrich campaign approach in the South has been to talk sins and forgiveness to earn a few points with the Bible Belt. 
Meanwhile, the Romney tactic has been to attempt a Southern accent, mention grits, and talk about Southern girls giving hugs.
All of these seem like very odd campaign angles. Guess we'll find out which one will work in about 24 hours!


*American Samoa is expected to go completely for Romney due to the 25% Mormon population. 
** Missouri had its facade caucus back in early February. But it actually "allocates" its delegates this week. Technically they have the ability to change loyalty. But I haven't found any suggestions anywhere that they might. (Santorum won.)