I read the news so you don't have to

Here is what happened in the last few days, and what you need to know for the next few days.
Santorum won in Kansas, and took home 33 delegates.
Romney won in Guam (9), Northern Marianas (9), and Virgin Islands (7), and took home 25 delegates. Plus he got 7 as the runner up in Kansas. And he won in Wyoming with 12. For a grand total of 44 delegates for the weekend.
This week brings us Alabama (50 proportional, primary), Mississippi (40, proportional), Hawaii (20, proportional caucus), American Samoa (9, proportional caucus)*, all on Tuesday, and then Missouri (52 proportional)**, and Puerto Rico (23, winner take all).
The following week includes Illinois (69 direct) and Louisiana (46 proportional).
Originally all expectations had been that the moderate from Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, would not do so hot in the South. Say what you will, but when has any Yankee done well in the South? But, in spite of expectations, the latest Mississippi's GOP poll showed Romney slightly ahead of Newt Gingrich, 34% to 32%, which was within the margin of error (MOE).
Meanwhile, a poll of likely voters in Alabama's primary showed Gingrich, who likes to pretend he's a Southerner because he used to live in Georgia, but he's actually from Pennsylvania, and has lived in DC longer, at 34% to 31% for Romney, a gap also within MOE.
Rick Santorum trailed in both polls -- 10 points behind Gingrich in Alabama and 12 points behind Romney in Mississippi.

According to CNN the delegate count is currently-
Romney- 458 delegates,
Santorum- 203,
Gingrich- 118
Paul- 66.


In what might be one of the strangest campaign claims yet this year, the Santorum camp sent out a memo claiming “Romney's math doesn't add up.” And then also said that they- Santorum- are doing better math-wise. They also claimed that Romney must win more than 50% of remaining delegates in order to capture the nomination.
Santorum himself said, "We're winning in the South, we're winning in the West, in the Midwest, we're winning really all across the country. And I understand Newt's sort of drawn his line in the sand here in Alabama and Mississippi. Where do you go from there?"
Can someone please show me these states he is winning in in the West? Cause the last I checked, Romney won Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, Arizona, and Nevada. Romney even won Alaska, if you want to call that the West. Santorum has won Colorado.
But back to the memo on "Romney's math.” Anderson Cooper had a Gingrich and a Santorum spox on live tonight (did you know Santo, Ging, and Rom all have blond female spox? True story.). He gave the Santo girl a huge rope to defend the math statement. Poor girl was a train wreck. And then AC totally mocked her, but still gave her the chance to try and defend the statement. “How? How do you say a man who is beating you by 100% is losing?” Her answer was more or less, “Because we say so.”
Really it is Gingrich who has the most to lose the next few days. He's lagging in money and in momentum lately.

Public Policy Polling surveys showed a three-way tie in the Southern States. In Alabama, the three candidates were within 2 points of each other, inside the margin of error. In Mississippi, Gingrich led Romney by 33 percent to 31 percent, with Santorum at 27 percent. But I've poo-poo'd PPP polls before, and I'll do it again. I have yet to see them turn out accurately.
"About all we know for sure about Tuesday's primaries is that Ron Paul will finish last in them," Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in releasing the results. "Beyond that it's plausible that any of the candidates could finish between first and third in both Alabama and Mississippi."
Santorum has been actively touting the idea that a long drawn out process, and the possibility of a brokered convention would be good for conservatives, because they could slowly tear down Romney. Romney has been actively out there saying a brokered convention could split and hurt the party when they should be focusing on beating Obama.
The Gingrich campaign approach in the South has been to talk sins and forgiveness to earn a few points with the Bible Belt. 
Meanwhile, the Romney tactic has been to attempt a Southern accent, mention grits, and talk about Southern girls giving hugs.
All of these seem like very odd campaign angles. Guess we'll find out which one will work in about 24 hours!


*American Samoa is expected to go completely for Romney due to the 25% Mormon population. 
** Missouri had its facade caucus back in early February. But it actually "allocates" its delegates this week. Technically they have the ability to change loyalty. But I haven't found any suggestions anywhere that they might. (Santorum won.)

Live Commenting on Mini Tuesday Results

If CNN and Fox News can be believed an hour before the caucuses even start, we may be in for an upset tonight. I'll be periodically live commenting throughout the night.


(You'll want to read this post from the bottom up!)

1:08 am:
To cap off the night, I just had to share my little Twitter moment of fun and fame for the night-

1:02 am- CNN gets the Colorado GOP Chair to call it live on air for Santorum. 
WOW!!
But we do not have the final exact number.
Oops, I typed that, and they gave the number immediately-
Santorum- 17,623 38%
Romney 17,169 37%
Gingrich 6,046 13%
Paul 5,745 12%
They still don't have 100% reporting in, but the state GOP says it is good. Considering the break down of proportional delegates, its more a tie. But good for Santorum! And wow, what a CRAZY upset!!

12:25 am - CNN has been warning for several hours that the results coming in from CO were not going to be a trend for the state. And they were right. Santorum had a hefty lead all night, but here at 12:25 am, we have -
Romney 37%
Santorum 35%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 13%.
Which is a serious change from the last update where Santorum had 41% and Romney was under 33%.
51% of precincts reporting. This is again another time to remember the difference between "51% of polls," 51% of votes, and 51% of precincts. The majority of precincts up to this point tonight were in very rural areas, with very small populations. All it took was one big precinct to completely overturn all the numbers.

12:05 am- An Occupyer just tried to glitter-bomb Romney, and got the full Secret Service escort out. You don't mess with the Secret Service!

Also, are we ready to declare Newt moot?


11:25 Updated Delegate Counts!
Remember, all delegates are proportional. So Santorum isn't taking all delegates from Minnesota.
Romney- 102 (picked up 2 in MN)
Gingrich - 35 (unchanged)
Paul- 17 (up 2)
Santorum- 16 (up 5)
That's actually a little sad. Santorum finally "wins" "2" states, and he's still in fourth place behind Paul who hasn't won anything.


11:25- Colorado 26% reporting: Santorum 42%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 12%
But everyone is pointing out that no one believes we are close to being done in Colorado.

11:15- Apparently when Obama declared Super PACs good, Santorum decided to concur. Check out this picture-

The man with the white hair standing next to Santorum while he delivers his MO and MN victory speech is none other than Foster Friess, the head of the Santorum Super PAC. He's a Wyoming based investment manager, leader of Brandywine funds, and donor to Christian causes.
(Speaking of which, where is Jim Bob Duggar?)
Considering the laws about mixing campaigns and Super PACs are pretty specific about not mixing them directly, this is an incredibly gutsy, if not stupid, move by Santorum (who has also been out campaigning with him by his side for the last few days).

10:45- Funny comment seen on Twitter-
"To be fair, Mormons have never fared well in Missouri. #ExterminationOrder"
(you probably have to be Mormon to find that funny)

10:35- Minnesota officially called for Santorum. Assuming the stats stay true, and Santorum gets 46% of MN delegates, he's won 17 delegates tonight for a grand total of 28.  That's seven delegates behind Newt.

For the record, I'm happy for Santorum. I think he deserves a win after getting denied his victory lap in Iowa.

10:10- Food for thought - Winning huge in nonbinding contests is kind of like being undefeated in preseason football.
Noteworthy- Mitt Romney won Minnesota 2008 Primary with 41% (19% lead) or 25,990 votes.

Also, CNN is sitting around surmising that we'll Romney "deploy his surrogates" to start attacking Santorum now.  Specifically, Gloria Borger said that. I like most of the "experts" on CNN, but I swear G Borger is an idiot. Other than the one week of retaliation attacks on Gingrich, Romney has stayed focused on Obama. I look forward to seeing maybe tops, 1 day of comments about Santorum (he won't attack him, just comment), and Borger being wrong.

9:50- Someone updated Wolf Blitzer! With a whopping 1% reporting in (yes 1), it is exactly what CBS said. Why we care about 1% as anything other than a novelty is behind me. They have had only 406 votes actually counted in Colorado. I'm calling CBS crazy for calling anything based on 406 votes.

9:45- Missouri (and its zero candidates) goes to Santorum with over 50% of the vote.
In CO, with 5/76 precincts reporting, CBS estimates Santorum 50%, Gingrich 21%, Romney 19%, Paul 9%. And CBS is calling it for Santorum. Notably, CNN has not called it. In fact, while I'm typing this, Wolf Blitzer just said, "We know Romney is doing VERY well in Colorado." Either he needs an update, or CBS is out in left field.

The question has been raised on Twitter a few times tonight, what happens if Santorum does win tonight. Well, the answer is easy. If he were to take a full sweep which he won't because they are all proportional states, but let's just say he did, he would still be 29 delegates behind Romney.

Mini Tuesday Outlook

Minnesota Caucus tonight- should Bachmann have endorsed anyone? Would it have mattered?

Today isn't quite a "Super" Tuesday, that term being saved for a much bigger voting day next month, but 70 delegates are up for grabs today. Let's take a look at what is at stake, what might go down, and what to expect.

The States in play today are the Colorado and Minnesota caucuses (and Missouri primary(sort of)). However, neither state will award their delegates until down the road. In other words, they vote, CNN (and all the others) will declare a winner, but the states won't make it official until a more official party meeting is held next month.


Missouri has a nonbinding primary that is, for all intents and purposes, a fashion show and not much more. The state will vote in a primary, but doesn't actually award delegates until a caucus later on. Confused yet? In other words, the people vote, and the state listens, but just in case they change their minds and the guy they picked isn't favored to be the winner down the road, they can change their delegates to go to someone else. Stay classy, Missouri.

Let's not forget, Missouri is also our first chance to remember that Newt Gingrich had time to plan a moon base, but failed to hire someone to pay the $1000 fee, and turn in some paperwork, to get on the Missouri ballot.

What's at Stake
Minnesota has 40 proportional delegates. Pledged delegates follow the caucus results. But unpledged delegates are Republican National Committee delegates and official GOP members who get to attend the convention in August. They can vote for the candidate of their choice.

It's all a numbers game- polls, delegates, and what comes next!

This Republican race is truly unprecedented. We have no historical model to follow, no pattern to expect to emerge. We have four candidates in the race, three have wins, and the fourth one is the only one who has vowed to never drop out of the race! So what happens next? The candidates start looking at the delegate numbers and the polls and weighing likelihood.

• Total Number of delegates: 2286
• Unallocated delegates: 2229
• Number of delegates needed to win: 1144

Gingrich - 25 delegates
Romney- 14
Santorum- 8
Paul - 10

Take a second look at those numbers. Ron Paul who has not won a state, has more delegates than Rick Santorum who can now claim Iowa.

Florida comes next- Jan 31- and it has 50 delegates in a winner takes all state. If you recall, Rudy Giuliani staked it all on winning FL in 2008 (which backfired on him). Five days later will be Nevada with 28 delegates in a proportional allocation state. In other words, win FL you take home 50 delegates. But in NV each candidate may take home a few delegates proportional to how many people have voted for them (which is how Paul has delegates without winning a state).

In 2008 Romney won Nevada in a landslide victory (but no one noticed as they were all focused on the bloodbath in South Carolina).

The pattern in this race has been band wagon mentality all the way. The man that has the best showing in the debate win that week's vote. There is absolutely no clear front-runner, and no one obvious path to follow yet. There are 2 debates this week, which means there are two more chances for upsets and changes.

So let's take a look at the FL numbers-

First, let's discuss the graph and not the actual numbers. Look at the green Gingrich line. He was low, he was high, he dropped, and now, as of today, he's going up again. And there's the red Cain line. Same thing- he's low, he's high, he drops. And then there is Romney with the purple line. He's fairly steady since the summer, with an uptick in the last three weeks, but a sudden fall as Gingrich jumps. Santorum and Paul have remained steady below 12% continuously.
Personally, if I was Santorum or Paul, I'd skip Florida and move on to Nevada. Why? You know you will never win Florida, and it is a winner take all state. Any time spent there is a waste of time and money where you could be elsewhere winning delegates. UNLESS, your goal is not to win the state, but to make you take away support from either Romney or Gingrich to keep them from winning.
I'll be back around later tonight to share thoughts on the debate this evening.

So now- Nevada, and then the slightly less than Super Tuesday. Nevada will holds its proportional caucus on Feb 4. There are few, if any, recent and reliable polls coming out of Nevada yet. But be looking for them to come today soon- like today or tomorrow probably. If it isn't heavily favoring Romney, consider it to be a big surprise. And if you live in Nevada, brace yourselves- the robocalls and pollsters are about to start coming. (And tell the truth to the pollsters!)

Just three days after Nevada comes the mini Super Tuesday. Colorado (36 proportional), Minnesota (40 proportional), and Missouri (52 proportional) will vote on Feb 7. Maine (24 proportional) votes over the course of a week, ending Feb 11. That's 152 proportional delegates in one week, plus the 28 proportional in Nevada. If Florida doesn't produce a clear front runner (and it won't), this race continues to be a massive battle through this first Super Tuesday. After that, the candidates can take quick naps, because the next primary day isn't for 3 more weeks, but is a much bigger Super Tuesday.

In other words, this race is far from defining a winner!

Oops, he did it again! Gingrich won't be on the Missouri ballot!

"Oops, did I do that?" (Linked to source at Forbes.com

According to the Missouri Secretary of State's office, Newt Gingrich did not file the necessary paperwork to be on the February 7 ballot.
(He messed up in Virginia just last week, and won't be on their ballot either.)
Really, Mr. Speaker? It is almost like you aren't even trying anymore! Or are the phones not working in Iowa? All you had to do was get one person to go down to the state capitol, pay $1,000, and fill out some paperwork. You didn't even have to get signatures in Missouri!
You had time to visit Dubuque, Decorah, and Dyersville, IA yesterday, but you didn't have just one staffer on the bus who could drive the 280 miles down to Jefferson City, MO?
Can I point out that Dyersville, IA has approximately 4,000 people living in it, and Missouri has 6 million?
Sure, the Missouri's primary is just for show, since no delegates are actually awarded.  The state Republican Party will hold caucuses in March for that purpose. I know Iowa is Important, but Missouri is too. Actually, I like to think that all of the states are important and deserve equal attention. The fact that we have to have laws keeping you from spending too much money in one state is rather ridiculous. We should have laws strongly encouraging you to spend equal money in every state.
For the record, all of the other candidates (maybe even some you have never heard of) managed to get on the ballot.

Gingrich struggles with state deadlines, while Indiana's signatures come under scrutiny

I started this blog after some negative experiences with voters on a day I was out collecting signatures for Mitt Romney to get on the ballot in Virginia. I was accused of all sorts of things that day, but the most interesting fallacy lobbed at me was that no other candidates were out collecting signatures. Maybe those supposedly well-informed voters just haven't been paying enough attention, because the state-by-state requirement to collect signatures is a hot topic this week.
Newt Gingrich may be suddenly enjoying a skyrocketing rise in the polls, and we will assume in his war chest as well, but his tardy to the party style is actually hurting him where it matters most- getting on the ballots. Each state has different rules for getting a candidate on the ballot for the state caucuses or primaries. (In Virginia a candidate must collect 10,000 signatures state-wide by mid-December.) Gingrich has already missed the requirements for getting on the Missouri ballot. The Missouri primary will be held on Tuesday, February 7, 2012.* Candidates for the presidential primary from Missouri's "established political parties" (Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, and Constitution) had to have 5,000 collected signatures filed by 5 p.m. on November 22, 2011.
Gingrich now faces possibly missing the Ohio deadline as well. Ohio is a part of the first major "Super Tuesday" on March 6, 2012. The Gingrich campaign is scrambling to turn in the required 1,000 signatures today** by 4pm. (See below for a big asterisk on confusing, emerging information, that will likely lead to a court battle by unhappy candidates in the near future.)

Mitt Romney's political director Rich Beeson pointed out that the best time to collect signatures — during the previous general and primary elections — has passed. (Which is exactly what this writer was doing.) Of course, it goes to note that back on November 8 when other campaigns were out collecting signatures, Gingrich was still battling Rick Perry for third place.
Not surprisingly the Gingrich team is blaming the complicated system (that all of the other candidates managed to work with) rather than admit that he and his team messed up. The mark of a true politician!
Meanwhile, in Indiana, a voter fraud investigation is underway as it is suspected that at least 150 collected petition signatures for now-President Obama were forgeries. Obama only collected 534 signatures in St. Joseph County, where a minimum of 500 were needed. (The Clinton campaign collected 704.) Without the forgeries, Obama would not have made it on to the ballot. (Note: in the final election Obama beat McCain with 58% of the vote in St. Joseph's County.)

Source
Washington Times "Gingrich struggles with state deadlines for filing"
Talking Points Memo "Newt Catches a Break on the Ohio Filing Deadline"
Fox News "2008 Voter Fraud Investigation Heats Up in Indiana"


*(Point of confusing clarification from different sources: Missouri will hold its primary on February 7th, 2012, but this will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention.)
**In Ohio, the deadline for filing to be on the primary ballot is 90 days before the primary on March 14, 2012 (in other words, today, December 7, 2011.) However, a new law has made its way through the state legislature moving the primary back to June, and effectively the state filing deadline. However, it gets a little tricky here because the new law won't be enacted until January 20, 2012. Making story even more complicated, according to Matt McClellan, spokesman for the Ohio Secretary of State, is that the candidates were advised by the Secretary’s office to adhere to the old December deadline just in case the legislature again changed the date of the primary (which it has done a few times in the last few months). So in other words, Gingrich et al better make that filing deadline today in order to be safer than sorry.