49/49 Polls, polls and more polls

A last minute look at the polls released today-

CNN/ORC International poll shows a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll. That's HUGE. Not that a 49/49  result is what anyone wants...

A new Michigan poll shows Romney eeking ahead 46.86% to President Obama's 46.24%. That would swing Michigan (which in the map I posted yesterday had MI in blue) pink, with its 16 EVs. 

A new Rasmussen poll released Sunday also shows the 49/49 split. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups: Colorado,   Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio,Virginia and Wisconsin. Note that they did not pull MI out of the O column. I'm going to take MI out of Obama's number and stick it in toss-up, giving us Obama 221, Romney 206, with 111 toss-ups. 

And now there's 49 percent support for Obama among likely voters, 48 percent for Romney in the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll.

And last but not least, USA Today is also showing a 48/48. Unreal.

Using the latest RCP polls, I filled out the CNN do it yourself map. I kept with the RCP numbers except on Michigan, where I used the latest polls that only came out a few hours ago. 

That gives us 274 Obama, 264 Romney. 

You know what I think? I think it is impossible to call. Except I think Team Orca just might make the difference in the too close to call states. 

What's Team Orca? We'll discuss that on Tuesday. 

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New Poll Shows Romney Leading in Iowa

Mitt Romney Leads in Iowa (in one poll at least)

The Rasmussen Reports today announced that for the fifth straight week a different candidate has emerged at the head of the pack in Iowa. And everyone is shocked that this week's leader is Mitt Romney!
Remember that just 3 days ago the Iowa polls were showing Romney trailing Gingrich by 11 points. And the Rasmussen Reports have never had Romney in the lead in Iowa before! This is a pretty significant change.
(The survey of 750 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants was conducted on December 13, 2011.)

But before anyone puts too much stock into this poll, let's see if anyone else has reported any new polls in the last few days.

The NewsMax/InsiderAdvantage survey of 517 registered likely Iowa caucus-goers, conducted Dec 12, 2011.
Newt Gingrich= 27%
Ron Paul= 17%
Rick Perry= 13%
Mitt Romney= 12%
Michele Bachmann= 10%
Rick Santorum= 7%
Jon Huntsman= 4%

Don't forget tonight is another debate in Iowa. And so far, we've had a new sweetheart after every debate. It will be interesting to see how things shake out after tonight. But can there really be that many undecided voters left in Iowa? Is it possible that every registered Republican hasn't had their hand shaken by every single candidate? I often wonder as well- considering how many letters and phone calls I get asking me to donate to help a candidate succeed in Iowa, how many free meals have I provided for the registered voters of Iowa?