Va Governor's Race Just Got Interesting

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Virginia state politics just got interesting.
Actually, the commonwealth's governor race was already pretty interesting. (Read why here.) But this week Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling dropped out of the 2013 Republican race, giving  current Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli a wide open path to securing that nomination.
Bolling announced his decision via email on Wednesday morning. Not surprisingly he cited the switch from a statewide primary to an “exclusive” party convention as one of the reasons. Ever since the switch in June, state party members have openly discussed how the switch favored Cuccinelli and would hurt Bolling.

Virginia GOP Chooses State Convention Over a Primary in 2013

The Republican Party of Virginia made some interesting changes over the weekend. The party's state central committee chose to hold a convention in 2013 rather than a primary election- for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Lt. Governor Bill Bolling

 
It is no secret that the VA GOP has a little feud on its hands, and this primary/convention situation is a major event in that feud. As mentioned before on this blog current Lt. Gov Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are competing for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. (It's just a little awkward inside the party right now.)

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli

Bolling prefers a primary. Cuccinelli prefers a convention.

What's the difference and why does it matter?

Anyone can vote in a primary. Only party members who attend the convention get to vote at the convention.

A primary means a candidate gets to go out, glad hand, handshake, and stump. (They also cost a whole lot more to campaign.)

A convention means schmoozing the delegates with voting power at the convention.

And guess what happened at the convention over the weekend? The committee voted 47-31 to rescind an October 2011 decision to have a primary and to instead go with the option that gives them the most power.

Funny how that happens.

Bolling issued the following in a statement after the vote, "[a convention] will effectively disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Virginia Republicans, and all active-duty military personnel, from participating in the nomination of our candidates."

"If we want to grow our party, we have to involve more people in the nomination of our candidates, not fewer; and I believe that we do that through primaries, not party conventions. This decision creates the impression that our party is an exclusive party, as opposed to an inclusive party, and that is not the message we should be sending to the people of Virginia."

Something else interesting happened at the convention. There wasn't a visible feud. I was in attendance for the Friday night proceedings, and asked a few people why I didn't see the Bolling campaign everywhere. (Because heaven knows, I saw plenty of Cuccinelli, and everyone else.) The answer was hush-hush, but people very respectfully explained that the two men do not want to divide the party, and therefore are giving each other some space. Cuccinelli got Friday night, and supposedly Bolling got Saturday. (I was not there Saturday so I did not get to witness it.) Rather than directly compete and the second and third highest ranking GOPers in the state, they politely stay out of each other's ways. I appreciate that.
So why does Cuccinelli prefer a convention over a primary? He says it is because it will allow the Republican nominee to save money for the general election campaign. That is very true. A bloody battle in the primary can be costly. Just ask Romney, Newt, and Santorum.

Supporters of the convention method claim it is a return to “grassroots activism.” For this writer, that is both true and untrue. First, if grassroots want to get more active, it doesn't matter which method of voting is held, they will get active. What really happens is what we see taking place around the country with Ron Paul supporters hijacking wreaking havoc showing up and causing a stir at state conventions around the country. You get a small, but passionate, group of people to show up at your local district convention to carry your torch.

Some call this grassroots activism, I call it not the will of the people, but the will of the loudest people.

Why does this method help Cuccinelli? He's got the Tea Party support.

The downside to this method? It's not unlike what happens in a grand jury indictment. They can indict anyone they want. A group of people get together and all agree the blue chair in the corner is bad, in spite of the evidence. They indict it. Or, in political terms, a bunch of Ron Paul rowdies show up and get their guy on the ballot, in spite of what the majority of people really want.

And for the candidates not running against Cuccinelli and Bolling for governor, (for instance Morgan Griffith running for U.S. House) that can be a scary prospect. One minute you are uncontested and all is well, the next a bunch of rowdies from who-knows-where show up with some buddies, and someone else gets the job!

Virginia Politics

Just another beautiful day in Virginia

In honor of Virginia going to the primary polls today, let's take a quick look at the issues-

We have a Senate seat open in the fall, and both George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) want it.
Both men have fairly hefty political resumes. Kaine is the former Governor, Lt Governor, and Mayor of Richmond. He was also the head of the Democratic National Committee.
Allen is a former Governor, Senator, Congressman, and State Legislator.
Polls will be open across the state from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Because Virginia does not register voters by party, any voter may choose to cast a ballot in the Republican primary, but turnout is expected to be low.
Allen is the front-runner, but he does face some competition. Chesapeake minister E.W. Jackson, Del. Robert G. Marshall (Prince William) and former Virginia Tea Party Patriots head Jamie Radtke have also all thrown their hats into the ring. However,a Washington Post poll released last month found Allen leading the primary contest with 62 percent of the vote.
So in a not-too-contested primary, what is the big deal?
Balance of the US Senate!
All politics are local, my friends. 
In the words of our esteemed Governor Bob McDonnell, “Majority control of the U.S. Senate could be determined right here in Virginia with George Allen."
Speaking of our governor, what has he been up to lately (when he's not out stumping for Romney)?

He vetoed part of the General Assembly’s state spending plan and declared another section unconstitutional Monday. He put the kibosh on a provision in the budget that would have prevented some surplus funds from being used for transportation. (For those not in the know, Virginia tends to always have a big budget surplus.) He also said not to what he thinks is an unconstitutional measure related to the Federal Action Contingency Trust (FACT) fund, a rainy day fund to prepare for potentially large federal cuts.
After he used his red pen, he did sign the two-year, $85 billion state budget plan.
The General Assembly went along with some of McDonnell’s biggest budget priorities, including boosting K-12 and higher education by more than $880 million, and pouring about $2 billion into the underfunded retirement system for state employees.But it rebuffed him on a plan to divert more general-fund revenue toward transportation.
There are more issues regarding transportation in the Commonwealth, particularly with Metro expansion plans in Northern VA, than can be covered in this blog here.
Overall, McDonnell made more than 100 amendments to the General Assembly’s budget plan. (And yet, they still like him. Go figure.) But the GA did  defeated 31 of his amendments — more than even the most veteran lawmakers could recall. (Turnabout is fair play?)
Meanwhile, the men who would like to be the next Governor- Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, have been busy as well. 

Bolling put out a lengthy list of more than 100 state and grassroots level GOPers who he says support his bid for gov.   It is an incredibly gutsy and political move to release such a list so early on in a race that already threatens to divide and agitate the state GOP.

All Politics are Local- the VA Governor Race and the Race for the White House Collide

Gov Mitt Romney and Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia (linked to source: Deseret News)

Meet Governor Bob McDonnell. He's on the imaginary short list for Gov. Romney's vice presidential sidekick.
He is a former state attorney general, head of the Republican Governors Association, and all around well-liked governor of a Swing State.  His record includes a budget surplus, a drop in unemployment, and conservative support for signing a bill that requires women to have an ultrasound before an abortion.
A recent CNN/ORC International poll showed 1% of registered voters would pick McDonnell for the position, a figure largely based on name recognition. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice nabbed the top spot, followed by former presidential candidate Rick Santorum, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

VA Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (picture courtesy Atty Gen website)

Meet Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Republican candidate for governor of Virginia. He won't endorse Mitt Romney.
Endorsements run both ways. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. You endorse the top dog, you often get to have your picture taken with the top dog to run in your campaign materials. So why won't he endorse the top dog?

Lt Governor of Virginia Bill Bolling (picture courtesy of Lt Gov official website)

Meet Lt. Governor Bill Bolling of VA. A man who wanted to run for governor last time around, but instead, politely stepped aside to allow his friend McDonnell to take that place. He politely settled for second-in-command. Within the party it has long been known that it is Bolling's turn to ascend to the governor's mansion. And all looked promising for that to happen, until Cuccinelli stepped in.
So what does this have to do with Cuccinelli not endorsing Romney?
Virginia does third year elections. The governor's spot isn't up for grabs until 2013. If McDonnell were to get tapped for the VP spot, and Romney/McDonnell were to win, Bolling would assume the governorship for one full year before the 2013 elections. And assuming people liked him, (and people probably would, since they like him quite well already), he would have an easy "re-"election ahead of him. And Cuccinelli would not have party support to run against him. (VA is a term limits state. McDonnell will not seek  re-election.)
Even if McDonnell does not get tapped for VP, considering his standing within the party, and the work he has put into Romney's race, he is likely on a short-list for a large number of appointments. In other words, Cuccinelli does not want to see Romney win because it could potentially hurt his chances to become the next governor.
In two weeks, on May 14, the VA State Legislature will meet in a special session to review Governor McDonnell's budget, and elect some judges. And when that happens, the second and third most influential conservative legislators in the state will be in a quiet, (yet very polite- too polite really) war with each other.
Bolling, by the way, is the chair of Romney's Virginia campaign.
In other words, all politics are local.