The Smarter You Are, the Less Likely You Are to Vote for Trump (I have proof!)

I never thought I'd say coming in second, and even third place, is a great victory, but for ‪#‎TeamMarco‬, it is. I'm thrilled with his results tonight. 
Something very interesting to note about the VA returns. Rubio won Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun, Harrisonburg, Lynchburg, Prince William, Fredericksburg City (but not Spotsy), Henrico, Richmond, Goochland, Radford, Albemarle, Chesterfield, James City, Winchester, and York counties. Notice anything interesting about those counties?
Let's reword it like this instead-
He won the homes of GMU, UVA, William and Mary, JMU, Patrick Henry College, Mary Washington U, Liberty University, Radford, VCU, Shenandoah Conservatory, Christendom College, and U of Richmond. (Not listed in same order as the counties.)  Not to mention all of the people who live in NoVA, but attend GWU, GU, and JHU, or are known for having post-graduate degrees.
Also known as the most affluent and educated counties in the state. Apparently, the smarter you are, the more likely you are to not vote for Trump!
It's interesting to also note that in Montgomery County, home of VA Tech, Rubio lost to Trump by a mere 29 votes. So we can sort of pretend that county followed suit too. (And after the final tallies have been truly certified, that number could possibly tip in Rubio's favor.)
(I'm a little disappointed that Rubio lost by nearly 1,000 in Roanoke County. However, he only lost by 200 in Roanoke City. Cruz had a stronger showing overall in the county than in most areas in the state.)
I applied my education theory to a few other states that I have some knowledge of as far as major universities go. It holds up in GA, NH, AR, SC, and IA. It didn't hold up in Massachusetts. I tried to apply it to AL, but the data was inconclusive and skewed due to a tornado touchdown in the specific counties I was interested in. And admittedly, I know nothing about Minnesota universities or counties. Texas went overwhelmingly for Cruz. 6 counties went to Trump. Notably, not one has a major educational institution in it. (Which is saying something. Texas has universities and colleges every 10 feet!) My knowledge of OK was also too limited, but I did see that at least in 1 of the 2 Rubio counties, there was a major state university!
So apparently the smarter you are, the less likely you are to vote for Trump! And now we have proof! 

Roanoke Strong Unfolds on Social Media

Photo shared by Daryl Watkins from Creative Dog Media via the City of Roanoke Facebook page. I believe it was created to be shared, and therefore hope Mr. Watkins is okay with me sharing his beautiful image here without his explicit permission. Thank you Mr. Watkins. 

I live in Roanoke, Virginia, the town where the terrible on-air murder of two news reporters happened yesterday. Needless to say, our town is still reeling from the shock of what happened.
Not too surprisingly, in wake of the shooting, the national conversation has turned to gun control. (It's not yet a conversation in this town, and I don't expect it will be for a while.) I've explained my unusual background with firearms before, so I won't do it again today.
This story has hit not just "close to home" for me, but has hit my community, my town, and my world. I work in social media. This is my realm. And now someone has committed an atrocity in both my virtual and physical worlds. Of course I have a few things to say about it!
I can't think of any other instance where someone so flagrantly and blatantly flaunted their crime-in-progress online. I've heard of criminals stupid enough to share their spoils online, never have I heard of a crime-in-progress unfolding online.
The entire premise and concept scares me.
It scares me that someone was so desperate for attention and "glory" (after all, criminals of this nature often have a self-righteous belief that they are doing something good) that they would broadcast their crimes live.
Since the horrific Aurora movie theater shootings, there have been at least two more that I can think of without looking it up. I can't even wrap my head around how many school shootings there have been since Columbine. If there is one thing we have learned from these types of atrocities, it is that they will be copied.
And it all begs the question - will this spurn a new trend in online crime-in-progress streaming?
I pray that it will not. But I think we all know deep down inside, that it is inevitable.
Will it lead to social networks creating filters that search for such activity? (For instance, right now Facebook filters your posts for certain key words like wedding, marriage, birthday, baby, birth, born, etc., and makes sure those posts get seen by more people, using the assumption that people want to know when you get married or have a baby.) Will social networks be forced to start filtering for criminal activity?
I hate the concept, but just 30 hours after the shootings yesterday, I can foresee the need to prevent attention/glory seekers from taking advantage of social media for criminal intent.
(For the record, when I say I hate the concept, I mean I hate that there is going to be a need for it. Also, I hate that it will lead to some controversy about free speech and the First Amendment. I hate any time the First Amendment must be debated in the context of public safety. I love the First Amendment. Hate that it can be abused to hurt others.)
In my version of a perfect world, there wouldn't be crime (obviously). But in my more realistic perfect world (where crime is inevitable because no two people will ever think the same), we would be a better self-policing society. If there is one good thing that came out of yesterday, it is that as the shooter's activities were revealed online, his networks (I won't call them friends) didn't retweet or share his activities. They reported him. They told Twitter and Facebook what he was doing, and got him shut down. This is self-policing at its finest.
But it didn't work perfectly. Because before Twitter and Facebook figured it out and removed the offensive content, there were people out there who did copy and download the images and video. Because, like I said, no two people think alike.
I will let the rest of the world debate gun control and the right to bear arms. But for now, I'm going to focus on what I know best - social media - and work to make the world a better place there.





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Possible Election Outcomes and What Happens if there is a Tie??

Tuesday is coming! Tuesday is coming!

And finally all of the political ads and polling calls will end!! YEAH!!!

Real Clear Politics (and several other outlets) have some useful tools for creating your own electoral results map. My best guess for the electoral college is below.I scrolled my page so that I couldn't see the electoral count total at the top, so I wouldn't be tempted to swing a state one way or the other to make my candidate win.  I was very surprised by the total number in the end. I didn't realize a tie was a possibility in the electoral college!

(I created my own electoral map on Real Clear Politics.)
Any time there was a 2 or 3 point spread, I gave it to the higher party. If there was only a 0-2 point spread I gave it to the underdog, IF and only if the chart shows an upward trend in recent weeks for the underdog. The only 2 states I really don't think anyone can call are Virginia and Colorado. I gave both to Romney using my underdog trending upward theory. And because you don't see a lot of Obama supporters in my town. I also called Nevada for Romney based on the fact that in the past it has gone Republican, except in 2008.

So what happens if there is a tie at the electoral college? Some fascinating stuff I tell you. And a strong scenario for a Romney-Biden administration.
Say what?
Oh yes.
Time for a lesson on the Founding Fathers, the Constitution, the Electoral College, and the calendar that will blow your mind.
We vote on November 6.
Sometime between Nov 6 and Dec 11 the electoral representatives gather with their states to formally declare that their state will be voting a certain way.
(Ahem, people are already raising the Ron Paul disruption flag here. I have no desire to address that right now. Maybe I will if and when there really is a tie.)
The electoral college will be held on December 17th. The votes are cast, but not counted.
The votes are formally counted on January 6.
NOTE- The new 113th Congress will swear-in on January 3rd!
Therefore it is the NEW House of Representatives that counts the votes for president. The new Senate counts the votes for VP. If there is a tie, the 12th Amendment declares that the House then gets to vote and decide who will be the president. And the Senate will vote on who gets the VP seat.
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL- The new House is expected to go overwhelmingly GOP. But the Senate is still a toss up!
And because our Founding Fathers never really cared for a majority of the popular vote of anything, the winner must win with a 2/3rds majority! And the Senate will most likely be 50/50!
Who casts the deciding vote when the Senate is all tied up?
The vice president!
You know, VP Biden.
Yes, it is possible that he would then have to cast the deciding vote for the VP. Does he vote for himself or Paul Ryan in that scenario??
Another interesting conundrum- if you are the newly elected congressperson, and you are a Republican, but your district voted for Obama for president, who do you vote for in your first ever chance to vote in the House? Your party or your people???

(Source: An Electoral College Tie Would Be an Hilarious Disaster, Huffington Post)

Now, another suggestion from my polluted late-night mind-

Sadly, we all know that New York has been suffered a lot of devastation from Hurricane Sandy. Much of the 5 boroughs are still under water and without electricity. This is likely to effect voter turnout. They are already talking about consolidating precincts (and when people don't know where to go vote they don't turn out), and how many precincts have no power.
New York is firmly in the blue right now. Obama has a 26% lead over Romney.
BUT! If voter turnout is low in the boroughs, could the rest of the state sway the overall vote?
Take a look at these older maps-

The top map is Bush/Kerry, the bottom is Obama/McCain. Both times the state went for the Democrat. But look at how much of the state is actually red! Personally I feel that the Bush/Kerry models are more accurate than the Obama/McCain models because McCain never had the support that Romney does now.
In my humble opinion, without the boroughs New York is in play. The overall vote is more important than the county results. And if few people turn out to vote in the boroughs, that can really sway things.

FACT CHECK- I am fairly certain that I am right about overall vote versus county results. I have heard that this is not the case in all states. I can't find any information to indicate I am wrong about New York.

If you pull New York out of the "strong Obama" category and move it to "leaning Romney" you really have a toss up scenario.

One more detail to note- New York has a little known law that allows them to hold a second voting day in case of a natural disaster!

(In all fairness, I applied this same logic to New Jersey which was also hard hit by the storm. However, the state overall is fairly split blue and red, but no one side of the state is more red or blue.) 

Here are a few more maps and the way these major publications are calling it-

CNN electoral map with toss-ups Obama 237, Romney 206. 

NY Times with toss-ups., Obama 243, Romney 206. The major difference between NYT and CNN is NYT is calling Nevada for Obama. 

Real Clear Politics with no toss-ups. Obama 290, Romney 248. 

All 3 publications are calling Nevada for Obama. I personally think this is a mistake. Nevada is currently Obama 50, Romney 47.3. Romney has never had the lead in Nevada, but he is on an upward trend there. I think that is a good sign he could catch up and win. And I have a hard time believing that in the end the Mormons won't come out and really win it for him. That is the only state I truly disagree with the polls on. I really do thing the rest of the toss up states are unpredictable at this point.

And more than anything, I think there is little to no chance of this election actually getting settled and answered on Tuesday night.

Unchained Biden

I am not a fan of taking words out of context to make a political ad. So here is what VP Biden said today in Danville, VA about Governor Romney "unchaining" Wall Street, and "putting y'all back in chains."

First, as a Southerner, may I just say the man does not pull off "y'all" correctly, at all.
But more to the point, is the "back in chains" part offensive? Some seem to think it is. I don't think it was a racial insult the way some in the media are making it out to be. I think he's suggesting that if Wall Street has more power the little man will be "chained" somehow. The real Republican response to this should be that under Obama/Biden the country is so heavily regulated that we are "chained" to the government.
Quit with the mudslinging and stick to some real issues.
Last, as a Virginian, I do take offense to Mr. Biden's parting line. "With you – and I mean this, with you, we can win North Carolina again, and if we do, we win the election if we win you!”

Not exactly the thing you say in VIRGINIA. (Also, North Carolina isn't a swing state!)

Who the VP Won't Be

Mitt Romney in Salem, Virginia

As a general rule if someone is invited to speak (and it is publicly announced that they will) at the party conventions, that person will not be VP pick.  This, of course, assumes that the presumptive nominee has made his pick and communicated that to the party. Or at least has communicated to the party who his pick will not be.
Using that theory, here are the people we can rule out-

• South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the first female governor of South Carolina and the youngest sitting governor in the United States;
• Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the 44th governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate is a NY Times best-selling author, radio and television show host;
• Ohio Governor John Kasich, former House Budget Committee chairman;
• New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez, the first female Hispanic governor in the U.S. and the first female governor of New Mexico;
• Arizona Senator John McCain, the party's 2008 nominee, now serving his fifth term in the U.S. Senate;
• Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, America's 66th secretary of state and the first African-American female to hold the position
• Florida Governor Rick Scott, from the convention host state;
• Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, 43rd governor of Florida and current chairman of the Foundation for Florida's Future;
• Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin, the first woman to serve as both Oklahoma lieutenant governor and governor, and the first woman elected to Congress from Oklahoma since the 1920s;
• U.S. Senator Rand Paul, junior senator from Kentucky and founder of the U.S. Senate Tea Party Caucus; and
• Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, 2012 presidential primary candidate, and U.S. Senator (1995-2007) and U.S. Representative (1991-1995) from Pennsylvania. 

For me this is fairly disappointing. My top two picks for VP are on this list (Haley and Rice). And because I really do not expect Senator Marco Rubio to be the pick, this leads me to conclude we're going to get a "Boring White Guy" (BWG).

I do fully expect that Governor Romney is more likely to go with the most qualified vice president than he is to pick a popular idea. In other words, out with Rubio, in with Governor Bob McDonnell.

I still predict that we'll get a VP announcement Thursday of this week, or Monday of next. (I no longer expect it to be on Wednesday of this week out of respect for the shootings in Wisconsin. The news cycle deservedly belongs to them.) 

Mitt Romney in Salem, Virginia

Mitt Romney speaks to Carter Machinery in Salem, VA

Carter Machinery Employees in Salem, Virginia

Virginia GOP Chooses State Convention Over a Primary in 2013

The Republican Party of Virginia made some interesting changes over the weekend. The party's state central committee chose to hold a convention in 2013 rather than a primary election- for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Lt. Governor Bill Bolling

 
It is no secret that the VA GOP has a little feud on its hands, and this primary/convention situation is a major event in that feud. As mentioned before on this blog current Lt. Gov Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli are competing for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. (It's just a little awkward inside the party right now.)

Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli

Bolling prefers a primary. Cuccinelli prefers a convention.

What's the difference and why does it matter?

Anyone can vote in a primary. Only party members who attend the convention get to vote at the convention.

A primary means a candidate gets to go out, glad hand, handshake, and stump. (They also cost a whole lot more to campaign.)

A convention means schmoozing the delegates with voting power at the convention.

And guess what happened at the convention over the weekend? The committee voted 47-31 to rescind an October 2011 decision to have a primary and to instead go with the option that gives them the most power.

Funny how that happens.

Bolling issued the following in a statement after the vote, "[a convention] will effectively disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Virginia Republicans, and all active-duty military personnel, from participating in the nomination of our candidates."

"If we want to grow our party, we have to involve more people in the nomination of our candidates, not fewer; and I believe that we do that through primaries, not party conventions. This decision creates the impression that our party is an exclusive party, as opposed to an inclusive party, and that is not the message we should be sending to the people of Virginia."

Something else interesting happened at the convention. There wasn't a visible feud. I was in attendance for the Friday night proceedings, and asked a few people why I didn't see the Bolling campaign everywhere. (Because heaven knows, I saw plenty of Cuccinelli, and everyone else.) The answer was hush-hush, but people very respectfully explained that the two men do not want to divide the party, and therefore are giving each other some space. Cuccinelli got Friday night, and supposedly Bolling got Saturday. (I was not there Saturday so I did not get to witness it.) Rather than directly compete and the second and third highest ranking GOPers in the state, they politely stay out of each other's ways. I appreciate that.
So why does Cuccinelli prefer a convention over a primary? He says it is because it will allow the Republican nominee to save money for the general election campaign. That is very true. A bloody battle in the primary can be costly. Just ask Romney, Newt, and Santorum.

Supporters of the convention method claim it is a return to “grassroots activism.” For this writer, that is both true and untrue. First, if grassroots want to get more active, it doesn't matter which method of voting is held, they will get active. What really happens is what we see taking place around the country with Ron Paul supporters hijacking wreaking havoc showing up and causing a stir at state conventions around the country. You get a small, but passionate, group of people to show up at your local district convention to carry your torch.

Some call this grassroots activism, I call it not the will of the people, but the will of the loudest people.

Why does this method help Cuccinelli? He's got the Tea Party support.

The downside to this method? It's not unlike what happens in a grand jury indictment. They can indict anyone they want. A group of people get together and all agree the blue chair in the corner is bad, in spite of the evidence. They indict it. Or, in political terms, a bunch of Ron Paul rowdies show up and get their guy on the ballot, in spite of what the majority of people really want.

And for the candidates not running against Cuccinelli and Bolling for governor, (for instance Morgan Griffith running for U.S. House) that can be a scary prospect. One minute you are uncontested and all is well, the next a bunch of rowdies from who-knows-where show up with some buddies, and someone else gets the job!

Virginia Politics

Just another beautiful day in Virginia

In honor of Virginia going to the primary polls today, let's take a quick look at the issues-

We have a Senate seat open in the fall, and both George Allen (R) and Tim Kaine (D) want it.
Both men have fairly hefty political resumes. Kaine is the former Governor, Lt Governor, and Mayor of Richmond. He was also the head of the Democratic National Committee.
Allen is a former Governor, Senator, Congressman, and State Legislator.
Polls will be open across the state from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Because Virginia does not register voters by party, any voter may choose to cast a ballot in the Republican primary, but turnout is expected to be low.
Allen is the front-runner, but he does face some competition. Chesapeake minister E.W. Jackson, Del. Robert G. Marshall (Prince William) and former Virginia Tea Party Patriots head Jamie Radtke have also all thrown their hats into the ring. However,a Washington Post poll released last month found Allen leading the primary contest with 62 percent of the vote.
So in a not-too-contested primary, what is the big deal?
Balance of the US Senate!
All politics are local, my friends. 
In the words of our esteemed Governor Bob McDonnell, “Majority control of the U.S. Senate could be determined right here in Virginia with George Allen."
Speaking of our governor, what has he been up to lately (when he's not out stumping for Romney)?

He vetoed part of the General Assembly’s state spending plan and declared another section unconstitutional Monday. He put the kibosh on a provision in the budget that would have prevented some surplus funds from being used for transportation. (For those not in the know, Virginia tends to always have a big budget surplus.) He also said not to what he thinks is an unconstitutional measure related to the Federal Action Contingency Trust (FACT) fund, a rainy day fund to prepare for potentially large federal cuts.
After he used his red pen, he did sign the two-year, $85 billion state budget plan.
The General Assembly went along with some of McDonnell’s biggest budget priorities, including boosting K-12 and higher education by more than $880 million, and pouring about $2 billion into the underfunded retirement system for state employees.But it rebuffed him on a plan to divert more general-fund revenue toward transportation.
There are more issues regarding transportation in the Commonwealth, particularly with Metro expansion plans in Northern VA, than can be covered in this blog here.
Overall, McDonnell made more than 100 amendments to the General Assembly’s budget plan. (And yet, they still like him. Go figure.) But the GA did  defeated 31 of his amendments — more than even the most veteran lawmakers could recall. (Turnabout is fair play?)
Meanwhile, the men who would like to be the next Governor- Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, have been busy as well. 

Bolling put out a lengthy list of more than 100 state and grassroots level GOPers who he says support his bid for gov.   It is an incredibly gutsy and political move to release such a list so early on in a race that already threatens to divide and agitate the state GOP.

All the news that's fit to (re)print

So many things to say, so little time to say it all in!

Here's the big hitters for the day (in my humble opinion)-

First, I only have so much time in a day, and room in my brain, so I chose to completely ignore whatever it was that happened in Wisconsin yesterday. I hear a Republican won, and that the Washington Post has an interesting interpretation of a "close call."

California apparently doesn't want to tax their cigarettes, not even to pretend to fund cancer research. Or maybe they are just tired of getting overly taxed in that state?

Here in my home commonwealth we term limit our governors. As a result, many of them like to run for the Senate after their term expires. Former Governors Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R) are up against each other right now in a neck and neck race for our open Senate seat. Why does this matter? Because first, the balance of the Senate is a big deal and always will be. Second, Virginia politics and friendships are playing an interesting backstory in the Romney VP "race." If current Gov McDonnell were to become the next VP, it would be a very different representation for VA in the Senate if Allen were to win over Kaine. Like I've said before, all politics are local.

(And that being said, I really can't wait for the primaries in VA to be over with next week, so that the incessant robocalls on behalf of Rep Goodlatte will stop! (can't they at least pronounce his name correctly!?))

Has anyone else noticed a resurgence of Former President Bill Clinton showing up in political news lately? My spidey sense thinks something is up. 

Just a few things to think about!

Never ask if a Republican is enthusiastic. It doesn't work that way.

Six months from tomorrow we will finally be at election day!

Will it be Mitt Romney or Barack Obama wearing the champion belt that day?

If the elections were held today, the answer would be- either Romney or Obama.

Swing states are more important than ever before. A USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 currently proclaimed swing states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, shows President Obama over Romney with 47 percent to 45 percent. 

A separate poll conducted by Politico and George Washington University found Romney and Obama statistically tied among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent—well within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.

Who do the swing state voters think would be better for the economy? (Gallup poll)

Romney 60%

Obama 52% 

(Yes, I know the numbers don't make sense written that way. Go look at the poll yourself.)

But who do people "like" more? And we don't mean like in the Facebook sense of the word. 

58% think Obama is more likable

31% think Romney is. 

Now here's a very interesting number, that all the talking heads will try to spin their own special way. And yes, I am about to spin it my own personal way too. 

Which fan base is more enthusiastic about the November election?

Obama supporters are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" - 55%

Romney supporters are only 46% that excited. 

Now please pause while I explain why this is one of the stupidest poll questions and numbers ever. In fact, it is so stupid I can't believe Gallup put it out there. What were they thinking?

You can't ask Republicans if they are enthusiastic about an election. Republicans fear elections, because they all think the world is going to hell in a hand basket. If you ask them what they think about the upcoming elections, they groan and whine and talk about the evils penetrating the earth in the form of liberal Democrats taking over the planet. So no, they are not enthusiastic. They are terrified. Personally, I can't believe so many of them did say they are excited. It's just so un-Republican of them.

Romney Does Virginia

I may be incredibly biased on the subject, but I completely agree with Mitt Romney.

"Now politics is underway, it's underway again. You're going to hear it all right here in Virginia. This may well be the state who decides who the next president is." Romney said to an audience in Portsmouth, VA.
In 2008, President Obama won Virginia with 53% of the vote.
Issues discussed by Romney in Virginia-
- Importance of an energy plan that would utilize Virginia's resources including those found above and below the ground
- Military and veterans. (VA has largest veteran population in the U.S.)

Speaking of which, how are the polls in Virginia?
According to a Washington Post poll released today, 51% are Team Obama, and 44% are Team Romney. Interestingly, 66% of Virginians also think the country is on the wrong track. Go figure.

Outside of the great Commonwealth, other people in other states discussed the Romney VP potentials. The more he travels around the country, the more the media speculates the he is auditioning VP possibles.
On this week's list we have-
Senator Kelly Ayotte- toured fishing boats with the Governor this week (New Hampshire)
Governor McDonnell- attended multiple events around Virginia with Romney, including the above in Portsmouth, Wednesday and Thursday.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez
Wisconsin Rep Paul Ryan
Florida Senator Marco Rubio
former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty
former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush
Ohio Sen. Rob Portman
SC Gov. Nikki Haley

All Politics are Local- the VA Governor Race and the Race for the White House Collide

Gov Mitt Romney and Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia (linked to source: Deseret News)

Meet Governor Bob McDonnell. He's on the imaginary short list for Gov. Romney's vice presidential sidekick.
He is a former state attorney general, head of the Republican Governors Association, and all around well-liked governor of a Swing State.  His record includes a budget surplus, a drop in unemployment, and conservative support for signing a bill that requires women to have an ultrasound before an abortion.
A recent CNN/ORC International poll showed 1% of registered voters would pick McDonnell for the position, a figure largely based on name recognition. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice nabbed the top spot, followed by former presidential candidate Rick Santorum, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

VA Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (picture courtesy Atty Gen website)

Meet Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Republican candidate for governor of Virginia. He won't endorse Mitt Romney.
Endorsements run both ways. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. You endorse the top dog, you often get to have your picture taken with the top dog to run in your campaign materials. So why won't he endorse the top dog?

Lt Governor of Virginia Bill Bolling (picture courtesy of Lt Gov official website)

Meet Lt. Governor Bill Bolling of VA. A man who wanted to run for governor last time around, but instead, politely stepped aside to allow his friend McDonnell to take that place. He politely settled for second-in-command. Within the party it has long been known that it is Bolling's turn to ascend to the governor's mansion. And all looked promising for that to happen, until Cuccinelli stepped in.
So what does this have to do with Cuccinelli not endorsing Romney?
Virginia does third year elections. The governor's spot isn't up for grabs until 2013. If McDonnell were to get tapped for the VP spot, and Romney/McDonnell were to win, Bolling would assume the governorship for one full year before the 2013 elections. And assuming people liked him, (and people probably would, since they like him quite well already), he would have an easy "re-"election ahead of him. And Cuccinelli would not have party support to run against him. (VA is a term limits state. McDonnell will not seek  re-election.)
Even if McDonnell does not get tapped for VP, considering his standing within the party, and the work he has put into Romney's race, he is likely on a short-list for a large number of appointments. In other words, Cuccinelli does not want to see Romney win because it could potentially hurt his chances to become the next governor.
In two weeks, on May 14, the VA State Legislature will meet in a special session to review Governor McDonnell's budget, and elect some judges. And when that happens, the second and third most influential conservative legislators in the state will be in a quiet, (yet very polite- too polite really) war with each other.
Bolling, by the way, is the chair of Romney's Virginia campaign.
In other words, all politics are local.

When Reality TV and the Virginia Governor Race Collide

First, and foremost, let's get one thing straight. I am very interested in serious Virginia state politics. And will soon seriously begin to bring up some of the state political issues on this blog.
And what I am about to say, I say seriously. But it must be mocked in the process.
 White House party crasher, and now-estranged husband of a "Real Housewife" and tabloid fodder, Tareq Salahi, wants to run for Governor of Virginia. And he says he has "huge support."
In his own words,"As a Virginia native for the last 42 years, I am troubled to see how our current political figure heads continue to waste tax payer dollars during these difficult economic times! I'm a big believer in limited government, keeping taxes, regulation and litigation low." Oh and apparently he's a Republican.
He's off to a bad start though. According to CNN, on his application to run for office he put the wrong date down for the November 5, 2013 election. His application says November 6. Or maybe he just has bad handwriting?
As of late Wednesday morning, the State Board of Elections in Virginia has not yet received a declaration of candidacy from Salahi, a board spokesman confirmed.
The candidate form is generally not filed until January 1, 2013, at the earliest, Justin Riemer, the spokesman, noted. (Source: CNN)
Just like the presidential candidates, petitions for office must be signed by 10,000 registered voters in the state with a minimum of 400 from each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts.
Now, just to be fair, before I get to the mocking part, let's take a quick look at his credentials. Is he just after more fame? Or does he have a shot in politics?
First, don't be fooled by his "Real Housewives of DC" fame. He's not "DC" in the least. He lives way the heck out of DC, in Virginia wine country, in an area you cannot call DC suburbs. So no, he's not DC by nature, not that that qualifies you for anything either.
He served on the Virginia Tourism Board from 2006-2009, when then-Gov. Tim Kaine asked him to resign after the White House incident.
Before that he served on the all-powerful Virginia Winery Board, except that it isn't all that powerful or well-known in the state at all. His business background includes his family's vineyards. But rumor has it he and his wife drove the business into the ground, and the vineyard is now in bankruptcy. So yes, please, let's give this guy the password to the state's finances!
Maybe he'll be tough on crime? After all, he was very quick call for help when he thought his wife had been kidnapped. Except she had really just run off with Journey guitarist Neal Schon. But this is the state that did elect John Warner, husband of Liz Taylor, multiple times. So that may not rule him out to have a crazy, drama queen, sort of wife. And you never know, maybe soon-to-be Ex Mrs. Salahi will be the next Elizabeth Taylor. Or maybe this will save their marriage when she comes running back for the fame and prestige of being a candidate's wife.
But really, I think it might be his name that will make it tough to take him seriously. Does anyone actually know how to pronounce it? Tark? Tair-eck? Tark-ick? Sah-la-hee? Suh-lay-hee? Maybe I should have watched more Real Housewives of DC when it was still on.
Enjoy more mockery courtesy of the AC360 Ridiculist.

 

Mitt Romney to Speak at Falwell's Liberty University

Just because it looks like Mitt Romney has the nomination all sewed up, doesn't mean all Republicans or evangelicals are lining up behind him. And just because Mike Huckabee and Pastor Jeffress have endorsed him doesn't mean everyone is over and passed the Mormon issues.
Former Governor Romney has been asked to speak at the convocation for Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia (swing state!) on May 12. LU was founded by Reverend Jerry Falwell, Senior in the 1970s. The current chancellor of the university is Jerry Falwell, Jr. This is a university known for extremely conservative values, religious activity, and well, quite frankly, not liking Mormons. It boasts it is the largest Christian university in the world.
In the Virginia primaries there were 95 counties, and 39 independent cities. Ron Paul only won in 12 locations, and Lynchburg was one of them. (Reminder- only Paul and Romney were on the VA ballot.)
Romney's speech to the university will be one of the largest of his campaign, other than the convention. The audience size will be approximately 50,000 graduates and guests.

Falwell said in a statement university officials were “delighted that Governor Romney will join us to celebrate Commencement with Liberty’s 2012 graduates.”

Liberty has a long history of getting involved in politics. Governor Rick Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann spoke there in 2011, and other politicians have made the rounds there too- including President Reagan, President George H.W. Bush, Newt Gingrich, and Mike Huckabee.
President Obama once spoke in Lynchburg as well, but at a local high school, and not the [extremely conservative] university.
Speaking at LU is a strong indicator that Romney is courting the more conservative sects of the Republican Party (and not the more moderate members), and that he is reaching out even more to the evangelicals. But not all Liberty and Lynchburg residents are happy about it. Students are announcing intentions to boycott their graduations, or to show up at the services with signs for other [former] candidates. Their gripes (heard on the local tv news yesterday) ranged from religious differences, to the fact that the school's straw poll in the fall, and the primaries, showed support for other candidates.
Virginia is a key battleground or swing state in the national elections. It has 13 electoral votes, and a history of splitting support between Republican and Democrat. The more urban and suburban areas of Northern Virginia (outside of Washington, DC), and the military regions of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, tend to not fall in line with the rest of the much more conservative state.

Super Tuesday Predictions

Spoiler Alert! If you don't like knowing what to expect on Super Tuesday, you have been warned.
Here's what to expect tomorrow- the polls and my personal predictions. (Note- I am making my predictions without taking the time to see how the states divide up the delegates (winner takes half? by congressional district? truly proportional?) Nonetheless, I feel confident overall.)

Alaska- 27 delegates, proportional (caucus) - There are no available polls for this state, so I'll base my predictions on the national polls- Romney 39%, Santorum 26%, Gingrich 14%, Paul 12%. Except in this case, my gut says Alaska would be a Paul friendly state.
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Paul 8, Santorum 5, Gingrich 2.

Georgia- 76 delegates, proportional- Last week's polls (2/26) showed Gingrich 34%, Santorum 25%, Romney 21.5%, Paul 8.8%. But this week Gingrich has actually increased that lead to about 40(ish)%, and Romney has taken second place.
Prediction: Gingrich 36 delegates, Romney 15, Santorum 15, Paul 10.

Idaho- 32 delegates, proportional (caucus)- no available polls. But I'll call it more than 40% for Romney.
Prediction: Romney 20 delegates, Paul 10, Santorum 2, Gingrich 0.

Massachusetts- 41 delegates, proportional- expect Romney to win by a landslide (polls indicate a 40 point lead)
Prediction: Romney 30 delegates, Santorum 5, Paul 5, Gingrich 1.

North Dakota- 28 delegates, proportional- no available polls, so again, I'll go with the national polls, but this time straight across the board (as compared to my Alaska feelings).
Prediction: Romney 12 delegates, Santorum 8, Gingrich 5, Paul 3.

Ohio- 66 delegates, proportional - Santorum and Romney are neck and neck. Most polls have them tied or within a point of each other. But this is a meeting in the middle at the moment. Santorum is sliding down, while Romney is climbing up. Expect it to be close, with a tie for delegate count.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 25, Gingrich 10, Paul 6.

Oklahoma- 43 delegates, proportional - most recent polls are over 2 weeks old. At that time Santorum had a 20 point lead. I'll call it for Santorum, since no one else has invested any time or resources there.
Prediction: Santorum 25 delegates, Romney 10, Paul 8, Gingrich 0.

Tennessee- 58 delegates, proportional- a last minute poll shows things are almost tied up in a state that had been expected to be Santorum and Gingrich friendly.That poll shows Santorum 35%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 20%, and Paul 9%. And again, this is a Santorum on the downhill, and Romney on the uphill situation. But there has been early voting that gives Santorum the advantage.
Prediction: Santorum 22 delegates, Romney 18, Gingrich 10, Paul 8.

Vermont- 17 delegates, proportional- most recent poll is 2 weeks old, but had Romney with a modest lead.
Prediction: Romney 10 delegates, Santorum 4, Paul 3, Gingrich 0.

Virginia- 49 delegates, proportional - Only Romney and Paul are on the VA ballot, because the other two candidates failed to meet requirements. Romney leads currently with 69%, Paul 26%. Write-in votes are not allowed.
Prediction: Romney 40 delegates, Paul 9. 

My total prediction-

Romney- 192

Santorum- 111

Paul- 70

Gingrich- 64

Yes, I am giving Ron Paul more delegates than Gingrich. Call me crazy. But I really do think tomorrow will be Gingrich's swan song (which will sound a lot like a dying duck). I also predict some serious whining on Santorum's part about how Romney spent SOOO much more money than he did and only BARELY beat him.
Tonight I heard a Santo surrogate talking about how Santorum has won more counties than Romney, which is some of the most ridiculous spin I've ever heard. Winning a sparsely populated county in Iowa is not the same as winning a densely populated county in Detroit.
The math is simple- to date, Romney has won 52% of all delegates so far. My math for tomorrow has him winning 44% of the delegates. And really, if Georgia wasn't so heavily for Gingrich (which it rightfully is voting for the native son), the numbers would skew more in Romney's favor. Even in the states where Romney doesn't win (with the exception of Georgia), he's going to walk away with close to 40-50% of the delegates in that state.
Of course, as I type this, I am watching CNN, where John King has just said that now Oklahoma might be closer than I am giving it.

Want to Support Mitt Romney in Roanoke, VA?

There will be a meeting in downtown Roanoke, VA tonight at 7 pm for anyone interested in helping out the Romney campaign between now and Super Tuesday.
If you are interested in attending, please leave a comment below with contact information, and I will email you the details.

Gingrich and Perry Fail to Qualify for Virginia Primary Ballot

"I'm a Newt" "I'm a chipmunk!" (Linked to source: Salon.com)

Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have failed to gather and submit the required 10,000 minimum signatures from registered voters in Virginia in order to make the primary ballot in March, according to the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV).The ballot will now only be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. (Huntsman, Bachmann, and Santorum did not submit petitions.)

Gingrich did have a slight lead in Virginia over Mitt Romney in the Commonwealth, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday morning. Gingrich has 30 percent and Romney has 25 percent among VA Republican voters.

Instead of admitting he failed to gather enough signatures (his campaign was seen still gathering signatures outside of an event in Richmond on Thursday), Newt Gingrich's campaign criticized the process. "Only a failed system excludes four out of the six major candidates seeking access to the ballot. Voters deserve the right to vote for any top contender, especially leading candidates. We will work with the Republican Party of Virginia to pursue an aggressive write-in campaign to make sure that all the voters of Virginia are able to vote for the candidate of their choice.”

Way to endear yourself to the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV), Mr. Speaker. It's not like you haven't known for months that this was coming!  I wonder if when he's a visiting professor if he allows students to use that same excuse? "Professor, I've known for months that this was coming. But I think the system is wrong. Asking me to do homework in every class is too much. I'm going to start an aggressive write-in campaign from my parents and all my friends making sure I get to pass!" 

Weak sauce.

Bachmann, Huntsman, and Santorum will not be on the Virginia Primary Ballot

Looks like Newt Gingrich will be on the ballot in Virginia after all. But the ballot will be missing a few other names, specifically Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, Jr., and Rick Santorum. The three campaigns failed to make the 5 pm filing deadline Thursday with the Virginia State Board of Elections, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
Can I say what we are all thinking anyway? Did anyone really expect those 3 campaigns to still be in the race come March? 
Mitt Romney was the first GOP candidate to turn in his names. On Tuesday, none other than the Virginia Lt Governover Bill Boling himself, filed the necessary paperwork. Romney submitted 16,026 signatures, (hey, I got about 100 of those signatures for him!), Ron Paul 14,361; Rick Perry 11,911 and Newt Gingrich 11,050. Each candidate had to turn in at least 10,000 signatures, with at least 400 from each of the 11 Congressional districts.
Next, all of the signatures must get quickly vetted over the weekend. For reasons not explained by the Richmond Times-Dispatch, the VA GOP decided that candidates who submit at least 15,000 signatures of registered voters with at least 600 signatures from each of the 11 districts will be deemed to have met the qualifications. Why this is more than the requirements laid out by the State Board is what I don't understand.
The parties have until Tuesday at 5 p.m. to tell the State Board of Elections which candidates qualify for the March 6 primary ballot. The order of names will be decided by lottery on Wednesday.
Sidenote- when I went to the VA GOP homepage to try and find some info on why the change in numbers, I discovered that today Newt Gingrich was their guest speaker for a brunch. That probably does make it a little easier to get the signatures of registered voters turned in on time!

Will Gingrich be on the ballot in Virginia?

In the "swing state" of Virginia, all presidential candidates who want to be on the ballot at the primary on March 6, 2012, must receive 10,000 number of signatures from registered voters in Virginia, and submit them to the Virginia Secretary of State by Thursday, December 22, 2011 at 5 pm. The signatures must include at least 400 signatures from registered voters from each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts. (This blog started as a result of my experiences in volunteering for Mitt Romney at the polls to get the 10,000 signatures for him.)
We're less than 48 hours away from that deadline, and it looks like Newt Gingrich may not have the signatures to get on the ballot in Virginia! This close to the deadline, and they are still trying to get signatures in 7 districts!
 I received the following email from the campaign yesterday-

Dear Supporter,

You are invited to meet Newt Gingrich on Wednesday in Arlington for a Virginians with Newt 2012 rally! 

First, we need your help with petitions to get on the ballot in Virginia. Come out to our signature stations tomorrow (see below the rally invitation).

Rally for Newt Gingrich

Wednesday, December 21st7:00PM – 9:00PM

Key Bridge MarriottPotomac Ballroom1401 Lee HighwayArlington, VA 22209

SIGNING STATIONS FOR TOMORROW, Dec. 20thPlease come and forward this email to your friends in these Congressional districts!

CD	Location	Time
1	Wal Mart in Garrisonville/Stafford County, 217 Garrisonville Road (Rout 610 at I -95), Stafford, VA 22554	6-9 pm
2	Farm Fresh - Strawbridge 2129 General Booth Blvd, VA Bch 23454	6-9 pm
2	Gary Byler's Law Office 505 S. Independence Blvd Suite 201 VA Beach 23452-1150	6-9 pm
2	Farm Fresh-- Great Neck  2110 Great Neck Square, VA Bch 23454	6-9 pm
6	Waynesboro Walmart 116 Lucy Lane, 22980	6-9 pm
7	Park and Ride Parham and I64 23229	5-8 pm
7	Law Offices 1324 Sycamore Square 202C Midlothian, VA 23113	6-9 pm
8	1215 Duke Street, Alexandria 22314	6-9 pm
10	Herndon Monroe Park & Ride 12530 Sunrise Valley Drive, Herndon, VA 20191	5-8 pm
11	Giant Food Store-- 8074 Rolling Road, Springfield, Saratoga Shopping Center 22151	6-9 pm
Multi 5 - 6	1411 Hight Street, Farmville, VA 23901	1pm -7pm

Thank you and we look forward to seeing you!

Rachel Robinson
Newt 2012

There aren't many polls happening across Virginia yet, but what few there have been showed Mitt Romney with a significant lead over Gingrich, until very recently. Is it possible that Gingrich doesn't have enough support or organization in Virginia to make the ballot?

A recent poll conducted last week by the PPP, shows Obama has the lead in the Commonwealth with 48% of voters approving of him to 47% who disapprove. (He won Virginia by 6 points against John McCain.) Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48-42) and Newt Gingrich (50-43) by margins comparable to his 6 point victory over John McCain in 2008. And between the two match ups Obama is picking up as many Republicans as he's losing Democrats, something we don't see often.