Showing posts with label endorsements. Show all posts
Showing posts with label endorsements. Show all posts

Monday, September 21, 2015

Going Team Fiorina


It's still early to really, 100%, completely go all-in with a candidate. After all, there is still way too much time left for skeletons and dark marks to appear. Unless, of course, you are Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, and you are your own skeleton.
But as much as you can get behind a candidate this early on, I've decided I'm Team Fiorina.
I like Carly Fiorina's stance on abortion. I feel it's level, fair, and moral.

She's strong on education, and practices what she preaches. She has a master's degree. "You know one of the things this president loves to do is to distract us so I think he is trying to distract us from the fact that we have too many failing high schools in this country by offering community college for free. If we want to educate our children let us make sure that every parent has a choice and a chance to educate their children so that they can fulfill their potential." (Source: Forbes Magazine on 2015 Conservative Political Action Conf. , Mar 24, 2015)

Religious liberty is one of the most important topics on my list in this election cycle. Again, I think Fiorina has one of the most level, honest, and balanced answers to the gay marriage questions.



And personally, this interview on CBS This Morning sums up everything I feel about biased media questions and reporting. She completely nails exactly how I feel about voting and women. (And I can't stand Rush Limbaugh!)



So put me down in the Carly Fiorina column. I'm sold!

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Santorum Endorses Romney

Little Ricky has finally formally endorsed Mitt Romney. Instead of bringing you what or other people think of what he said, I instead give to you, exactly what he said via email to his email list subscribers (I do not say supporters, since you don't have to support him to subscribe to his email list). (Also, I leave the "Beth" on the email, because it amuses me. My name is not Beth. Nor is it my father's name. And this was actually the email that was sent to him. And for some reason, all of the emails he has received from Santorum's campaign have been addressed to Beth, whoever she may be.)

Beth,
Thank you again for all you did as one of my strongest and committed supporters. Your belief in our campaign helped us start a movement of Americans who believe deeply that our best days are ahead as long as we fight to strengthen our families, unshackle our economy and promote freedom here and around the world. Karen and I will be forever grateful for the support, kindness and commitment you showed us, as well as our children, over these last months.
On Friday, Governor Romney came to Pittsburgh for an over-hour long one-on-one meeting. The conversation was candid, collegial and focused on the issues that you helped me give voice to during our campaign; because I believe they are essential ingredients to not only winning this fall, but turning our country around.
While the issue of my endorsement did not come up, I certainly have heard from many of you who have weighed in on whether or not I should issue a formal endorsement. Thank you for your counsel, it has been most helpful. However, I felt that it was completely impossible for me to even consider an endorsement until after a meeting to discuss issues critical to those of us who often feel our voices are not heard by the establishment: social conservatives, tea-party supporters, lower and middle income working families.
Clearly without the overwhelming support from you all, I never would have won 11 states and over 3 million votes, and we would not have won more counties than all the other candidates combined. I can assure you that even though I am no longer a candidate for president, I will still continue to fight every day for our shared values - the values that made America the greatest country in the history of the world.
During our meeting I felt a deep responsibility to assess Governor Romney's commitment to addressing the issues most important to conservatives, as well his commitment to ensuring our appropriate representation in a Romney administration.
The family and its foundational role in America's economic success, a central point of our campaign, was discussed at length. I was impressed with the Governor's deep understanding of this connection and his commitment to economic policies that preserve and strengthen families. He clearly understands that having pro-family initiatives are not only the morally and economically right thing to do, but that the family is the basic building block of our society and must be preserved.
I also shared with Governor Romney my belief that we cannot restore America as the greatest economic engine the world has ever seen until we return America to being a manufacturing superpower. He listened very carefully to my advice on this matter, and while our policy prescriptions differed, he clearly expressed his desire to create more opportunities for those that are feeling left behind in this economy.
As it is often said, "personnel is policy." I strongly encouraged Governor Romney as he builds out his campaign staff and advisors that he add more conservative leaders as an integral part of his team. And you can be sure that I will work with the Governor to help him in this task to ensure he has a strong team that will support him in his conservative policy initiatives.
Of course we talked about what it would take to win this election. As you know I started almost every speech with the phrase that this was the most important election since the election of 1860 and four more years of President Obama is simply not an option. As I contemplated what further steps I will take, that reality weighed heavy on me. The America we know is being fundamentally changed to look more like a European socialist state than the land of opportunity our founding fathers established.
Freedom and personal responsibility are being replaced with big government dependency. The greatest and most productive workers in the world are being hamstrung by excessive regulations making it impossible to compete. Our healthcare system had been socialized, and the worth of each life dictated by some government bureaucrat. Our allies are insulted while our enemies are appeased. And our religious beliefs and freedom have come under attack.

What is even more troubling is what a second term of an Obama administration could bring. President Obama's admission to the Russians that he will have more flexibility in a second term can only be translated to "if you thought I was liberal in the first four years you haven't seen anything yet!"
The primary campaign certainly made it clear that Governor Romney and I have some differences. But there are many significant areas in which we agree: the need for lower taxes, smaller government, and a reduction in out-of-control spending. We certainly agree that abortion is wrong and marriage should be between one man and one woman. I am also comfortable with Governor Romney on foreign policy matters, and we share the belief that we can never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. And while I had concerns about Governor Romney making a case as a candidate about fighting against Obamacare, I have no doubt if elected he will work with a Republican Congress to repeal it and replace it with a bottom up, patient, not government, driven system.
Above all else, we both agree that President Obama must be defeated. The task will not be easy. It will require all hands on deck if our nominee is to be victorious. Governor Romney will be that nominee and he has my endorsement and support to win this the most critical election of our lifetime.
My conversation with Governor Romney was very productive, but I intend to keep lines of communication open with him and his campaign. I hope to ensure that the values that made America that shining city on the hill are illuminated brightly by our party and our candidates thus ensuring not just a victory, but a mandate for conservative governance.
Karen and I know firsthand how difficult the campaign trail can be particularly as governor Romney faces relentless attacks from the democrats. We have been praying for him and his family and will continue to do so in the weeks and months ahead.
Thank you again for all you have done for us, and I look forward to working together to defeat President Obama this fall and to protect faith, family, freedom and opportunity in America.
With Gratitude,
Rick Santorum
P.S. As promised, very soon we will be making another big announcement, and I will be asking you to once again join forces with me to keep up the fight, together. Stay tuned.

Monday, April 30, 2012

All Politics are Local- the VA Governor Race and the Race for the White House Collide


Gov Mitt Romney and Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia (linked to source: Deseret News)

Meet Governor Bob McDonnell. He's on the imaginary short list for Gov. Romney's vice presidential sidekick.
He is a former state attorney general, head of the Republican Governors Association, and all around well-liked governor of a Swing State.  His record includes a budget surplus, a drop in unemployment, and conservative support for signing a bill that requires women to have an ultrasound before an abortion.
A recent CNN/ORC International poll showed 1% of registered voters would pick McDonnell for the position, a figure largely based on name recognition. Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice nabbed the top spot, followed by former presidential candidate Rick Santorum, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.


VA Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (picture courtesy Atty Gen website)

Meet Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, Republican candidate for governor of Virginia. He won't endorse Mitt Romney.
Endorsements run both ways. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. You endorse the top dog, you often get to have your picture taken with the top dog to run in your campaign materials. So why won't he endorse the top dog?

Lt Governor of Virginia Bill Bolling (picture courtesy of Lt Gov official website)
Meet Lt. Governor Bill Bolling of VA. A man who wanted to run for governor last time around, but instead, politely stepped aside to allow his friend McDonnell to take that place. He politely settled for second-in-command. Within the party it has long been known that it is Bolling's turn to ascend to the governor's mansion. And all looked promising for that to happen, until Cuccinelli stepped in.
So what does this have to do with Cuccinelli not endorsing Romney?
Virginia does third year elections. The governor's spot isn't up for grabs until 2013. If McDonnell were to get tapped for the VP spot, and Romney/McDonnell were to win, Bolling would assume the governorship for one full year before the 2013 elections. And assuming people liked him, (and people probably would, since they like him quite well already), he would have an easy "re-"election ahead of him. And Cuccinelli would not have party support to run against him. (VA is a term limits state. McDonnell will not seek  re-election.)
Even if McDonnell does not get tapped for VP, considering his standing within the party, and the work he has put into Romney's race, he is likely on a short-list for a large number of appointments. In other words, Cuccinelli does not want to see Romney win because it could potentially hurt his chances to become the next governor.
In two weeks, on May 14, the VA State Legislature will meet in a special session to review Governor McDonnell's budget, and elect some judges. And when that happens, the second and third most influential conservative legislators in the state will be in a quiet, (yet very polite- too polite really) war with each other.
Bolling, by the way, is the chair of Romney's Virginia campaign.
In other words, all politics are local.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

They're All Team Romney (Sort of)








And you thought we were done hearing from these guys.


Even when he drops out of a race, he has to do it his way. The former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will soon be the former Republican presidential candidate- when he drops out next week.
Exactly what is the point in announcing that you will drop out in a week? How is that different from dropping out now?
When you are Newt, these things just happen. He claims it is because they are working out the details of his endorsement of Mitt Romney. Again, what is the point in announcing you are working out your endorsement, when obviously you will be endorsing?
Oh Newt, we might actually miss some of your antics. Or not.
In the meantime, someone who did not have to announce a week in advance that he would be endorsing Romney, former Republican presidential candidate and Texas Gov. Rick Perry is no longer Team Gingrich (now that Gingrich will be Team Romney (eventually)).
Here’s the full Perry statement:
“Mitt Romney has earned the Republican presidential nomination through hard-work, a strong organization, and disciplined message of restoring America after nearly four years of failed job-killing policies from President Obama and his administration. So today I join the many conservative Republicans across the nation in endorsing Mitt Romney for President and pledge to him, my constituents and the Republican Party that I will continue to work hard to help defeat President Obama. American jobs, economic stability and national security depend on electing a new president. Mitt’s vision and record of private sector success will put America back on the path of job creation, economic opportunity and limited government.”
He could have just said, "He beat the rest of us, and this is what good Republicans do who ever want to have a political future in the party," and that would have sufficed. 
Speaking of which, former Utah Governor and former Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, Jr., apparently doesn't want a career in the GOP. 
In a recent speech to the Harvard Kennedy School he said, "The party is not in a good place right now, given its recent rhetoric on immigration." (Source: The Crimson) Comments like that don't go over well when a few folks are still annoyed over a comment he made in March to MSNBC. "I think we’re going to have problems politically until we get some sort of third party movement or some voice out there that can put forth new ideas. We might not win, but we can certainly influence the debate."
Silly me for thinking that a nominee emerging from the pack would mean we wouldn't have to hear from the other guys anymore. I guess everyone had to get one last word in!

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

A KISS for Romney

Just when you thought the endorsements couldn't get any stranger-

Gene Simmons has endorsed Romney.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Why Romney's Growing Endorsement List Matters


Let's talk endorsements, media, and all that other stuff.
Warning- my pro-Romney bias will likely show up.

Last week Jeb Bush, a not so small name at Republican parties endorsed Mitt Romney. Yesterday, Marco Rubio, another popular name endorsed Mitt Romney. And George Bush the Elder will endorse Romney today.
And yet the Washington Post runs an article about how hard it is to find a Romney "superfan."Now, I wouldn't label myself as a "Superfan," or "Romniac," but I do know a few people who fit that description well. In fact, a quick glance at my sidebar (over there to the left) will link you to several of them. And yet, the Washington Post made it sound like drudgery to find just two or three. I find it amusing that the ones they found I had never even heard of, which means there's even more Romney devotees than originally thought. (Maybe the WaPo google machine is broken?)
 In fact, just for fun, I decided to do a very quick search on Romney fan blogs.
That would be over seven million responses in .2 seconds. (Told you it was a quick search.) To get this result, I obviously put in "mitt romney" into google, then clicked "more," and then "blogs," and then "homepage" (not posts- found in left toolbar, so as to remove all newspaper article posts). Seven million amateur blogs.

Friday, March 23, 2012

What the Republicans did and didn't do this week


A Gallup poll released today (Friday the 23rd), shows that in a national contest, Mitt Romney carries a sizable lead over Rick Santorum. 
Gallup Poll March 18-22, 2012 GOP nationwide
That's Romney at 40%, his highest number of points ever (and for all of the candidates) since Gallup began tracking last November.
The poll* has Romney rising six points since his Illinois victory, and Santorum falling four points. The Jeb Bush endorsement didn't hurt either.
It also comes right as the campaigns are getting juvenile again, drifting away from real messages, and just throwing mud at each other. That both the Newt and Santorum campaigns wasted time jumping on the "Etch a Sketch" comment all week is just ridiculous, and yes, like I said, JUVENILE.
Let's break down what happened in the world this week, and what the campaigns talked about-
1. Romney spox Eric Fehrnstrom said on CNN's "Starting Point." The absence of a GOP challenge could allow Romney to "hit a reset button for the fall campaign." He went on to say seconds later, "Everything changes. It's like Etch A Sketch, you can shake it up and we start all over again."(Which, hey, let's own up to something here, is exactly what happens when someone emerges as the nominee. They stop focusing on primaries, and start focusing on the incumbent and national election.)
2. A US soldier was charged with 17 counts of murder, for the atrocities in Afghanistan.
3. A man of Middle Eastern descent shot Jewish children at a school in France.
4. A new World Bank leader was appointed by the POTUS.
5. Syria!!!
6. The Trayvon Martin case has gained momentum across the country regarding crime and racism.
7. The Dow and the S&P dropped. 
8. Gas prices anyone??
9. Obama vows to speed up permit process to get the Oklahoma portion of the Keystone pipeline passed.

Those are just the issues that pop into my head. There's still dozens of other major hot topics out there. And yet, we've got Santorum and Gingrich making headlines about the Etch a Sketch comment!
As for the actual real issues above, here is what the candidates have said, or more accurately, this is what the media has reported them saying.
Gingrich calls Obama remarks on Trayvon Martin disgraceful.
Romney and Santorum basically say nothing about Trayvon Martin.
And that's about it. There are dozens of articles about the Etch a Sketch comment, and nearly nothing on the real issues.
I'm not the only one getting tired of the GOP talking about nothing when there are major issues that need attention. Peggy Noonan talks about it in "Kvetch a Sketch" in the Wall Street Journal.
Candidates- break the trend! Step up and be a real leader!


**Added Later**
As I sit here, finishing this post, I am watching Erin Burnett OutFront on CNN. And she is leading off the night with a conversation on exactly this subject. Why are the Republicans talking about nothing, and letting the Travyon issue pass them by?


*This is part of an ongoing poll by Gallup. At least 1,000 registered Republican voters are polled on a daily basis, and the poll drops the oldest of five days each day and adds results from the most recent day of polling.
In the latest survey, Gallup questioned 1,157 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents by telephone March 18-22, with a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

JEB Endorses Romney (finally)



Former FL Governor has finally endorsed Mitt Romney.
“Congratulations to Governor Mitt Romney on his win last night and to all the candidates for a hard fought, thoughtful debate and primary season.  Primary elections have been held in thirty-four states, and now is the time for Republicans to unite behind Governor Romney and take our message of fiscal conservatism and job creation to all voters this fall.  I am endorsing Mitt Romney for our Party’s nomination.  We face huge challenges, and we need a leader who understands the economy, recognizes more government regulation is not the answer, believes in entrepreneurial capitalism and works to ensure that all Americans have the opportunity to succeed.”
It's about freaking time.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

February 1, 2008, Former Senator Rick Santorum Endorses Governor Mitt Romney

And the Golden Flip Flop Award Goes to-



BOSTON, Feb. 1 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Today, former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) announced his endorsement of Governor Mitt Romney. Senator Santorum served two terms in the United States Senate where he was also Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, the third-ranking member of the Republican leadership.
"In a few short days, Republicans from across this country will decide more than their party's nominee. They will decide the very future of our party and the conservative coalition that Ronald Reagan built. Conservatives can no longer afford to stand on the sidelines in this election, and Governor Romney is the candidate who will stand up for the conservative principles that we hold dear," said Senator Santorum. "Governor Romney has a deep understanding of the important issues confronting our country today, and he is the clear conservative candidate that can go into the general election with a united Republican party."
Announcing Senator Santorum's support, Governor Romney said, "I am honored to have Senator Santorum's support. Throughout his career of public service, he has always led with a steadfast commitment to our party's conservative principles. He has fought for life, marriage, tax cuts and a stronger national defense. In the coming days, I look forward to working with him as we fight for our party's conservative foundations."
Background on Former Senator Rick Santorum:
Mr. Santorum Served As United States Senator From Pennsylvania From 1995 To 2007 And As A Member Of The U.S. House Of Representatives From 1991 To 1995. As a United States Senator, he was a champion of efforts to counter the threat of radical Islam, to protect victims of religious persecution, and to promote democracy and religious liberty around the world. He founded the Congressional Working Group on Religious Freedom and spearheaded the passage of several key pieces of legislation, including the landmark welfare reform bill, the American Community Renewal Act, a ban on partial-birth abortion, the Born-Alive Infants Protection Act, the Combating Autism Act, the Farmland Preservation Act, the Abandoned Mine Lands Reform Act, the Multi-Employer Pension Reform Act, the Global Aids Authorization Act, Health Savings Accounts, the Syria Accountability Act, and the Iran Freedom Support Act.
From 2001 to 2007, he served as Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, where he directed the communications operations of Senate Republicans and was the third-ranking member of the Republican leadership.
Today, Senator Santorum is a Senior Fellow with The Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, D.C. and is a contributor on Fox News Channel.

Thursday, February 2, 2012

It's Not a Party Without Donald Trump. It's Not the Media Without a Circus.

The Donald at a GOP/Tea Party Event in June 2011, Photo Credit: E. McBride

Yesterday, without question, Mitt Romney made a mistake.

It was a stupid mistake, a simple case of a misplaced pause as he was speaking, and a poorly phrased sentence in a live interview.

By now we all know what he said (but I'll repeat it here for future reference when in a few weeks we can't remember what the hullabaloo was all about today)-
"I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich; they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of America, the 90%, 95% of Americans right now who are struggling, and I'll continue to take that message across the nation."
Unfortunately he made an unfortunate pause after he said, "I'm not concerned about the very poor." It instantly skyrocketed into the headlines- but not really.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Mormon v. Mormon (it's only funny when Mormons make the Mormon jokes)


This perfect cartoon will run in the Sunday, Jan 8, 2012 Salt Lake Tribune.


Jon Huntsman, Jr. picked up a noteworthy endorsement from the Boston Globe this past week. Mormon #2 must feel pretty smug about picking up an endorsement from the major paper from the state Mormon #1 governed.
"So let me get this straight, the paper from your home state endorsed me? That's so funny." "Yeah, you're still losing."

But then there is this-

Romney is winning (by a landslide) in polls in Huntsman's home state.

(To be fair, I have googled, searched, and even tweeted the campaign directly to get the source of that poll. I cannot find any polls out of Utah since July.)

Oh and then there is also this-

and this-

But good for Jon Jr for picking up an endorsement from one of the most liberal newspapers* in the country. That should help you get one or two more Republicans to like you.

*From the former editor of the Boston Globe, Renee Loth, "The Globe has a long and proud tradition of being a progressive institution, especially on social issues. We are pro-choice; we're against the death penalty; we're for gay rights. But if people read us carefully, they will find that on a whole series of other issues, we are not knee-jerk. We're for charter schools; we're for any number of business-backed tax breaks. We are a lot more nuanced and subtle than that liberal stereotype does justice to."



Sunday, December 18, 2011

Des Moines Register Endorsement Track Record - good thing? or kiss of death?


The Des Moines Register has endorsed Mitt Romney in the GOP 2012 Presidential Nomination Race. As was done when the New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Newt Gingrich last month, I decided to do some research on the sway and power of such an endorsement.
The Des Moines Register prides itself on being a "voice of pragmatic conservatism." How conservative are they? Well, the paper has been owned by the Cowles family since 1903. One family member served as a Republican in the Iowa General Assembly (in the early 1900s), and another in the Herbert Hoover administration. With those kinds of GOP roots, and their conservative claims, they are surprisingly not that conservative.

GOP Nominee Endorsements-
2011/12- Mitt Romney (2 weeks till we find out!)
2008- John McCain (who lost to Mike Huckabee, eventual nomination went to McCain)
2004- George W. Bush (incumbent year)
2000- John McCain (lost by 36% to GW Bush, who also took the nomination)*
1996- Bob Dole (won Iowa, and the national nomination)
1992- George H.W. Bush (incumbent year)
1988- Bob Dole (won Iowa with 37%, but the nomination, and eventual presidency, went to George H.W. Bush who took third in Iowa)

So as for how often the Des Moines Register's endorsee win in Iowa? Two times for Bob Dole. But it is noteworthy that they did endorse McCain in 2008 who went on to get the nomination, but lost Iowa.
The paper has never endorsed the man who would be the next GOP President (unless they backed Reagan in the 80s. I am still working very hard to find hard core data on 76, 80, and 84).
In other words, Romney Fans, I wouldn't get too excited about this endorsement. It doesn't seem to bring good luck!
*Disclaimer- 2 sources said they endorsed McCain, a third said they backed Bush. Still trying to find a more credible source than Wikipedia.

The Register also endorses a Democrat each year, so let's look at those-
2008 - Hillary Clinton (Obama won) (however, for the nationwide Presidential election they endorsed Obama over McCain)
2004- John Edwards (lost to John Kerry by 6%)
2000- Bill Bradley (Al Gore won)
1996- Bill Clinton (incumbent year)
1992- Tom Harkin (Iowa state senator. Most Democrats avoided Iowa that year. Harkin won the state with 77% of the vote. Bill Clinton won the nomination, but lost in Iowa with 2%.)
1988- Paul Simon (lost to Dick Gephardt. Michael Dukakis took third in Iowa, won the nomination.)
1984- unknown
1980- unknown
1976- Jimmy Carter (Jimmy Carter "won" Iowa with 28%, meanwhile 37% chose "uncommitted" over Jimmy Carter.)

As for picking the Democratic Iowa Caucus winner they got Tom Harkin right in 1992, and Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Jimmy Carter in 1976 is also the only time, regardless of political party, that the Des Moines Register picked the future President, during the caucus phase. But we can't really blame the paper for that. Iowa rarely chooses the person who goes on to win the nomination, let alone the national election.

How often does the Iowa Caucus produce the national nominee?
The Iowa Caucus has only managed to pick the national nominees eight times out of the last fifteen elections, but only managed to be indicative of the next president twice. (I am not counting 1976 when more people chose to not commit rather than vote for Jimmy Carter.) In fact, it is interesting to note that they managed to repeatedly pick candidates (in both parties) that didn't just lose, but lost by significant numbers. Cases in point, Harkin, Mondale, Carter, Huckabee, Dole, Dole again, and anyone who ran against Ronald Reagan (1976 and 1980). 


Sources: 
Wikipedia: Newspaper endorsements in presidential elections

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Rick Perry Endorser Sheriff Joe Arpaio Accused of Civil Rights Violations

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Linked to source: LA Times

Just two weeks ago the Rick Perry campaign sent out a newsletter with a strong endorsement from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. At the time I questioned why of all people they would choose a sheriff's endorsement to circulate. Couldn't they get anyone better? The endorsement was all about how Perry, like Arpaio would be tough on illegal immigration.
Well, now they just might regret their pick of endorsements! Sheriff Arpaio is in the news today for a wide range of civil rights violations against Latinos, including a pattern of racial profiling and discrimination and carrying out heavy-handed immigration patrols based on racially charged citizen complaints. Not only that, but a federal grand jury is also investigating Arpaio's office on criminal abuse-of-power allegations and is examining the investigative work of the sheriff's anti-public corruption squad.
Doesn't sound like the kind of guy you want on your team now, does it? 
It will be interesting to see if this comes up in the debates tonight!
Meanwhile, let's take a quick look at other endorsements around the block-
Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz backs "underdog" Rick Santorum (an endorsement that only holds weight in Iowa)
Newt Gingrich snagged the coveted Union Leader endorsement (but I've explained why that's a kiss of death here)
Ron Paul, ever the master of social media, actually has a whole page on his website devoted to endorsements. Fans can create their own video, upload it to YouTube, and see it show up on the official Ron Paul site. Yet again showing their knowledge and domination of SEO, if you google "endorsements" one of the first suggestions (after endorsing a check) is "endorsements for Ron Paul." Bravo, campaigners, your ability to work the internet never ceases to impress me. That being said, I can't find where anyone of any political clout has endorsed Paul, other than the Daily Iowan newspaper. (And we all know how important that paper is!) 
If you want to see a list of major national or small state endorsements, check out P2012. It is very interesting to see how many are behind Romney (45 House members, 7 Senators, 3 Governors) and how many are behind Gingrich (1 Governor from his home state, 8 Congressmen - 5 of which are from his home state)!


Monday, November 28, 2011

Picking apart the effectiveness of Union Leader endorsements

New Hampshire State Flag, Source: Wikipedia

Each presidential primary the Union-Leader newspaper endorses a candidate. The 2012 GOP candidate they have selected is Newt Gingrich. But is the Union Leader effective in picking the winning candidates?


Their past endorsements with the New Hampshire winners in blue.

Union Leader Endorsements
2008- John McCain
2004- (incumbent year for George W. Bush)
2000- Steve Forbes
1996- Pat Buchanan
1992- Pat Buchanan
1988- Pete duPont
1984- (incumbent year for Ronald Reagan)
1980- Ronald Reagan
1976- Ronald Reagan
1972- John Ashbrook
1968- Richard Nixon

The Union Leader's pick only won 4 times out of 9. But how many times did the Union Leader endorsement pick the national nomination winner? (answers above in red) 3 times out of 9 (Nixon, Reagan, McCain). Or in other words, they lost more than they won.

Just for fun let's see how many times did the New Hampshire primary picked the national nominee?

New Hampshire Primary Winners - (names in red show the national GOP nominee)
2008- John McCain
2004- (incumbent year)
2000- George W. Bush
1996- Pat Buchanan
1992- (incumbent year)
1988- George H.W. Bush
1984- (incumbent year)
1980- Ronald Reagan
1976- Ronald Reagan
1972- Gerald Ford
1968- Richard Nixon

If we take out incumbent years New Hampshire was indicative of the national winner six out of 8 times. They were only wrong about Ford beating Reagan in 1976, and Buchanan in 96.

It is also interesting to note that the GOP New Hampshire primary picked the overall national winner five times out of eight. And the Union Leader? They managed to endorse the overall national winner two times out of nine.

In short, is the Union Leader effective in influencing the winner of the New Hampshire primary? Not really, with only 30%. And they are really not effective at influencing who the national GOP nominee will be. But it is significant that the voters of New Hampshire are frequently right about who the national nominee and the national winner will be!

In other words, Gingrich shouldn't be getting too excited about winning this endorsement.


SOURCE: Red State "The Union Leader's Endorsement Record"
And several different Wikipedia pages, and the author's own memory.