Never ask if a Republican is enthusiastic. It doesn't work that way.

Six months from tomorrow we will finally be at election day!

Will it be Mitt Romney or Barack Obama wearing the champion belt that day?

If the elections were held today, the answer would be- either Romney or Obama.

Swing states are more important than ever before. A USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 currently proclaimed swing states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, shows President Obama over Romney with 47 percent to 45 percent. 

A separate poll conducted by Politico and George Washington University found Romney and Obama statistically tied among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent—well within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.

Who do the swing state voters think would be better for the economy? (Gallup poll)

Romney 60%

Obama 52% 

(Yes, I know the numbers don't make sense written that way. Go look at the poll yourself.)

But who do people "like" more? And we don't mean like in the Facebook sense of the word. 

58% think Obama is more likable

31% think Romney is. 

Now here's a very interesting number, that all the talking heads will try to spin their own special way. And yes, I am about to spin it my own personal way too. 

Which fan base is more enthusiastic about the November election?

Obama supporters are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" - 55%

Romney supporters are only 46% that excited. 

Now please pause while I explain why this is one of the stupidest poll questions and numbers ever. In fact, it is so stupid I can't believe Gallup put it out there. What were they thinking?

You can't ask Republicans if they are enthusiastic about an election. Republicans fear elections, because they all think the world is going to hell in a hand basket. If you ask them what they think about the upcoming elections, they groan and whine and talk about the evils penetrating the earth in the form of liberal Democrats taking over the planet. So no, they are not enthusiastic. They are terrified. Personally, I can't believe so many of them did say they are excited. It's just so un-Republican of them.

Romney Wins New Hampshire, Now What?

South Carolina County Map

So Mitt won New Hampshire. Now what? 
Despite winning in nearly every group of voters (including winning across the conservatives) the fight isn't over. The race is going in Romney's favor, but is not yet a done deal. And nor should it be! The democratic and primary system was not set up so that two fairly small states could have more power than the other 48!
We're already seeing a shift in strategies. Newt "High Road" Gingrich has abandoned all pretenses of pretending to play nice with no negative strategies. He has come out both barrels blazing to attack Romney in a self-described 'Armageddon.' (Now who's the flip-flopper?)Asked about the negative ads from the Gingrich camp, Romney told Boston radio station WRKO on Tuesday that they "will not help" his rival.
"All I have got to do is keep my head down, keep talking about my message of getting America back to work, my experience in having led two businesses successfully, the Olympics successfully," Romney said.
Of course, Gingrich isn't alone in the attacks. Everybody and their brother's PAC are "on the hunt." This looks to be the fight of Romney's political life to not just survive South Carolina, but succeed in it. It is shaping up to be a bloodbath.
The absolute most current poll data released (taken yesterday) has Romney only leading Gingrich by 2 points in South Carolina (Insider Advantage). And that is from a poll taken after the NH victory. However, polls taken earlier in the week have him with as much as an 18 point lead. But again the fight for third place will be very significant. Paul and Santorum are neck and neck there, and both absolutely need to be to take third to be considered viable. And if Perry ends up in last place, there will be little reason for him to proceed to Florida. Huntsman can take last place and still go on to Florida because he had a strong enough showing in NH.
The difference between Perry and Huntsman right now comes down to having enough money to go forward, but more importantly delegates. Perry skipped New Hampshire, and Huntsman skipped Iowa. But Perry had a lousy showing in Iowa. So he's 0 for 2 right now. Huntsman is 1 for 2. Huntsman can afford another hit. But Perry really cannot. Florida and South Carolina primaries are close enough together that a candidate could financially stay in. But considering both men are polling with less than 5% in Florida, there wouldn't be much of a reason to proceed.
There will be another poll next Thursday night in South Carolina (hosted by CNN). Considering how well Huntsman performed last Saturday in the New Hampshire debate, and how that really seemed to give him a bump up in the primary, this will be key to his success.
It is also very important to realize that Ron Paul is a serious threat right now. He has the money to keep going on for several more states. And if he continues to come in second or third everywhere, collecting delegates as he goes, he alone could really draw things out. (And there is nothing he or his supporters would love more than to really draw things out.) I've looked back over the polling data before and after the debates. His numbers don't move at all. Debates don't seem to help or hurt him like they do the other candidates. He only has 11% in South Carolina, just 1-2 points behind Santorum, for a consistent 4th place. He has yet to break 10% in Florida. If it were any other candidate, I'd say it is time to start his exit strategy. But considering his coffers, and ability to outstay his welcome, I would say expect him to come out swinging harder than the rest. But he's a wily candidate. Don't expect him to go after Romney- everyone else is doing that already. He will focus his sites on Gingrich or Santorum. He's not shooting for first place. A second or third place slot will be his victory. Again, slowly picking up delegates as he rolls along.

Who you want to win in NH and why!

Let's take one last look at New Hampshire before the fun starts tonight.
Here are the polls that were discussed yesterday-

Click on image to enlarge. Source: Real Clear Politics

It really helps to take a look at the graph and history of changes when looking forward right now. Understanding momentum and bandwagons is important this week. Santorum, who had no following at all in Iowa previously, came in second thanks to a serendipitous bandwagon. But this week it appears to be Huntsman with the loud and rowdy bandwagon. Everybody jump in! Let's see where this will take us! So here's what you need to know depending on who your horse in the race is-

Romney Supporters-
If you support Romney, you can rest easy that he is highly likely to win New Hampshire. But you need to be looking forward to South Carolina and Florida, where he is leading, but not confidently enough. Santorum is gaining in SC, so a Romney fan really wants to see Santorum in third, fourth, or fifth place tonight. (Sixth place is locked up by Perry.) Romney fans really want to see Gingrich in fifth place as well. Why? It will kill any buzz Santorum and Gingrich may have, and dry up their fundraising, if they do poorly in NH. Ron Paul doesn't have much support in SC, so he isn't a real threat there.
The ideal results tonight for a Romney fan would be 1. Romney, 2. Paul, 3. Huntsman, 4/5 Gingrich Santorum.

Paul Supporters-
Only ever want to see Ron Paul win. But looking deeper into it, a Ron Paul path to success tonight would be tthe same as the Romney path. They want to see Huntsman take third, and be able to build on his momentum in SC. That would take the wind out of the Gingrich and Santorum sails. Huntsman has little chance of really gaining too much in SC. But it would open the way for Paul to again make it to second place in SC. (He's currently a distant fourth.)

Gingrich Supporters-
Tonight is all about making it to second place. A third place "victory" isn't going to help or hurt. But in politics if it isn't helping, it is hurting. With Huntsman, Gingrich, and Santorum neck and neck (and neck) right now, third place really is up for grabs. But the momentum (there has got to be another word for this other than momentum) isn't in Gingrich's favor. Fourth place would be a disaster, and fifth place the ultimate disaster. The only good outcome tonight would be second place. Third is okay, but not great.

Santorum Supporters-
Tonight is the real test. Everyone ran like lemmings to vote for Santorum in Iowa, and then actually stopped to hear him speak at the debates this week. I don't think people liked what they heard. They voted and then gave him a chance. It will be really interesting to see if people liked what they heard when they started paying attention. If he doesn't get third place tonight, he will absolutely have to take first or second in South Carolina. (He's currently in second, threatening a weak first place Romney.) But expect the lemmings to jump ship and run to whoever takes second place in New Hampshire tonight. Depending on how much money he has in the war chest (or in his case, what may only be a piggy bank) he should make it on to Florida regardless of how poorly he does in SC. The real question is whether or not he can survive past that. If he performs well tonight, he survives pass Florida. Otherwise? Highly doubtful.

Huntsman Supporters-
All both of you out there have done a great job timing his peak in New Hampshire. Huntsman is the one to watch tonight, no question about it. He is a real threat for third place. But thanks to his great showing in the debates over the weekend, and a lot of extra media attention, he has a real shot of riding this wave to a peak tonight. He could quite possibly take second place. And if he does, that changes everything for everybody. First, all of the Mormon Romney supporters will have to reevaluate which bandwagon they want seats on. Second, it means more money for him, less for everyone else. He's in last place in SC, but only a tiny 1 point behind Perry. If he can take second tonight, and gain in popularity over the next 10 days, (which he likely would) he becomes a serious threat in SC. I don't know why Gingrich and Santorum are out there beating up on Romney this week. They should be attacking Huntsman, because he is the one that they have to beat.

Perry Supporters-
Don't exist.

Update! Live from Dixville Notch!

Dixville Notch, New Hampshire opened up the New Hampshire polling at exactly midnight and concluded a few seconds before 12:01 am, and the results were announced at 12:04 am. (Oh that Iowa had been so fast!) There were NINE whole voters and they voted 3 Obama, 1 Gingrich, 2 Huntsman, 1 Ron Paul, 2 Romney. So there you have it, as of 12:17 a.m. Romney and Huntsman are tied in New Hampshire. Now we just have to wait for another 19-22 hours to get the rest of the results.
Live free or die!

Fun facts about the New Hampshire Primary (I learn these things so you don't have to)

A few interesting fun facts about the New Hampshire primary-
There will be 33 candidates on the primary ballot, not just the 6 you have heard about.
One of those 33 candidates is Bear Betzler.
It is not an "open" primary or a "closed" primary. In an open primary anyone can vote. In a closed primary you have to be registered with the specific party. In this primary a voter will be either unregistered (independents) or a Republican. Democrats or any other registered party member cannot vote in the GOP primary.
The little tiny town of Dixville Notch, NH, population 75, will kick off the primary voting at 12:01 am January 10. (In approximately 3.5 hours from the time of writing this.) This is a long-standing tradition, where all of the eligible voters come together and cast their ballots at the same time. (As few as 6 voters at times!)
The tradition began with Neil Tillotson (1898 - 17 October 2001), who was traditionally the first voter; he would reportedly hold his ballot over the ballot box while watching his wristwatch. At the moment of midnight, Tillotson would drop the ballot into the ballot box and the rest of the town's residents would follow suit. Since Tillotson's death in 2001 at the age of 102, the first voter has been chosen by random ballot beforehand.
If you really want to, you can stay up tonight and watch all of Dixville Notch vote live, as the media tends to love showing it. (Yeah, I'll probably be watching.)
There are approximately 1.3 million people in New Hampshire.
270,705 registered Republicans
266,908 registered Democrats
383,072 undeclared voters 

For a total of 920,685 registered voters in New Hampshire.
The lobster industry brings in more than $300 million annually for NH.
The American lobster is also called the Northern lobster.
American lobsters contain just 98 calories per every 3½ ounces and offer vitamin B12 and zinc.
According to the movie "Love Actually," there was more than one lobster present at the birth of Jesus.
Yet in spite of this, New Hampshire is not a big Evangelical state.
Lobster is delicious.
Gingrich is going DOWN tomorrow.

Ready or not, here's New Hampshire (polls for Jan 9)

(CLICK ON ALL IMAGES TO ENLARGE)

We'll start with New Hampshire, then go on to South Carolina, Florida, and the national polls.
In short, Mitt is going to win New Hampshire. The primaries are tomorrow, and not even another out of the blue Santorum surge can beat Romney now. Now granted, his lead has slipped from 21.3 to 19. Well, unless we stick to my decision to remove all PPP results from overall scores. (Because they continuously, week after week, are significantly different from all other polls, thereby questioning their audience and polling questions.) Which, by the way, if you do, changes the rankings a little bit- Romney (39.6), Paul (20.2), Santorum moves ahead of Huntsman to 11.2, with Huntsman 10.2. Gingrich is moving down in the polls, not up, but could still possibly be in competition in third place. Perry is still losing miserably.
Even if Santorum and Huntsman continue to enjoy a well-timed surge, they are only going to threaten Ron Paul, and not Romney.
Prediction-
1. Results are in by midnight Eastern time, and we're not up till 2:30 am watching CNN.
2. We'll miss Edith and Carol in Iowa.
3. Romney wins with a massive lead.
4. Ron Paul and Huntsman duke it out for second place.
5. Santorum takes fourth.
6. Gingrich blames Romney for everything.
7. Perry doesn't drop out although he really ought to.

So on to South Carolina, where suddenly everyone is convinced the "real winner" will be picked, based on the fact that all GOP nominees won in South Carolina- a point completely disproved previously.

Just one month ago Gingrich was in a 19 point lead 42 to Romney's 23. Today? Romney has the lead, while Newt is down in third, and not gaining. If Santorum takes third or fourth in New Hampshire, expect his second place scores to start dropping. Gingrich will drop even more if he has a dismal response in NH. Which means Paul, who is in fourth right now, is actually the person with the most to gain here. If he takes second in NH, he may move up as far as second in SC, as the Santorum bandwagon slows down.
Predictions-
too soon to say, other than Romney should take first, for an historical sweep of Iowa, NH, and SC. Perry and Huntsman, who have no real reason to think they can even eke it up to third place, will drop out. The real question is whether or not Gingrich will drop out.
A question that can be answered by looking forward to Florida-

Instead of just looking at the current numbers, it helps to understand the past numbers too. In a non-stump state like Florida voters go with the popular name. Gingrich had the name recognition vote for quite some time. But don't be completely fooled by the numbers, these numbers used to have Cain and Bachmann in them as well.
Also, ignore the RCP average. They are pulling in numbers all the way back to early December (again, during Cain's heydey). Only the Quinnipiac numbers should be taken too seriously. We need more polls before we can really understand Florida, and a lot is going to happen in the next two weeks. If Romney stays strong, he can take Florida. But if there are any Gingrich surprises and he does better than expected in NH or SC, he won't want to drop out if he's still holding on in FL. It looks like Paul has been pretty static in FL over the past year. If he hasn't taken first anywhere, and doesn't move up at all in FL, expect him to drop out after FL. And I doubt Huntsman and Perry will still be around by FL, or will drop out immediately thereafter.
Which brings us to the national polls, where the hopes of the future candidates all hang. And that my friends, is where things get interesting-

In NH the order goes- Romney, Paul, Huntsman. (Or Romney, Paul, Santorum if you go with my numbers.)
In SC the lineup is- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich
And FL- Romney, Gingrich Santorum.
And nationally- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich.
In other words, we aren't seeing a consistent series of front-runners. If you are a Romney supporter you can breathe a little easier, but not too easy. An 8 point national lead isn't that confident and stable. Of course, if he really does sweep all of the early states, the 8 points will skyrocket.
But if you are Gingrich and you are in second place in Florida (and all those beautiful delegates), and you have a fighting chance in SC, and nationally you are still fighting for second, when do you call it quits? Do you ride it out and hope that Romney slips up somehow? (After all, all the other front runners have slipped up so far.)
And if you are Santorum, you are just praying hard that you can hold on to your momentum and that the money keeps pouring in. But realistically you know that that doesn't happen.
And if you are Romney, you just stay the course, barely adjusting the sails.

I watch the debates so you don't have to

"Oh it's on like Donkey Kong!" "Donkey Kong? Is that a kid's game?" (linked to source)

 
Highlights and low lights from the New Hampshire ABC News Debate-

Newt Gingrich-"The sacrament of marriage is at the core of our civilization." This was Mr. Speaker's brilliant commentary on gay marriage, and it did not go over well in the Twitter-sphere. Just a little too hypocritical. Gingrich did get a little bit more respect back for flipping the question around, and pointing out that anti-Christian bigotry is becoming a serious problem, especially when it comes to Catholic Charities being forced to close services because of gay adoptions. Mostly throughout the night he just sounded angry, bitter, and like he was living in the past, when he got a chance to speak at all.

Huntsman: "I have seven kids. I'm glad we're off the contraception discussion."
And that concluded all of his good comments. And he lost major points by speaking in Mandarin Chinese. 

Santorum - "There are no classes in America." He also spent several minutes reminding us that his daddy was a poor coal miner. Santorum managed to say more tonight than he has in all of the previous debates combined. America finally got to hear what the man has to say. It will be interesting to see if he goes up, down, or stays still in the polls as a result.


Paul -He gained and lost points when he defended his chicken hawk accusations of Gingrich. If he had stopped before going too far, he would have made a good point. But he kept digging at it and just ended up coming off as cranky and rude. And not at all like a good leader. 

Romney- (To Huntsman) "While we fought for GOP principles, you implemented Obama policies in China for the past 2 years." Without question he came across as a leader, smart, and confident. He was in the hot seat, and still looked cool and smooth. No question about it, biased or not, he was the winner tonight.

Perry- I'm pretty sure he was there. But I have no idea if he said anything.

The losers tonight? The audience- for being forced to listen to 17 straight minutes of contraception talk. First of all, Moderators, let's get something straight. You were talking to Republicans- you know, that party that likes to make everything a STATE issue, and not a federal issue? So yeah, the answer was going to be, over and over, that IF anybody wanted to actually outlaw contraception, they would do it at the state level, and not the federal level. Oh, and NOBODY cares! Sure, it is a Santorum issue, but not one he's actually trying to campaign on. Shame on the moderators for forcing us to endure that topic! And seriously, where did you think a conversation was going to go with 2 Mormons (with large families), 2 Evangelicals, Mr Constitution, and a Catholic on the stage?

(I won't be covering the Sunday morning debate. Anyone want to do it for me?)

Next stop- New Hampshire

Mitt Romney has an extreme lead in New Hampshire. A lot of people are asking whether or not Rick Santorum can build on his Iowa momentum to make something big happen. Honestly? I'm not at all concerned about Santorum. It is the Fighting Paulies I would be concerned about. I don't know that Ron Paul can gain 20 points in under a week, or enough to be a threat to Romney. But if he gets much more strength, he becomes a real threat to Newt Gingrich, stealing any thunder he may have left. I think the Michele Bachmann support will mostly swing over to Santorum, and that Santorum will also be a threat to Gingrich. (I think Jon Huntsman will be only a one hit wonder in NH and not a real anything anywhere.) In short, I think it will be Rick Santorum that will be Newt Gingrich's undoing!

Meanwhile, "the Mormon Question" has surfaced again. *Deep Sigh.* Apparently my encounter in the bookstore yesterday was not all that unique. The Washington Post, Washington Times, and as I sit here watching TV, Soledad O'Brien on CNN, are all talking about "Romney's Faith."

Ugh, sigh, grr, really?

Some facts for you -
There are 14 million members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints worldwide.
Approximately 6.1 million of them live in the United States.
More than half of LDS are NOT American!
1.2 million are in Mexico
1.1 million are in Brazil
1.6 million LDS live in Utah, which is 60% of the 2.8 million people in Utah
24,000 LDS in Iowa, and at least one of them voted for Santorum
8,231 LDS in New Hampshire (at least two of them are Romneys)

75,546 people voted for Mitt Romney in the 2009 New Hampshire primary.
25,000 dairy cows in New Hampshire
1 newspaper asking "would LDS Church influence Romney if president?"
15 members of Congress and 1 governor are LDS
0 questions by the media asking how often the prophet picks up the phone and "tells" LDS elected officials what to do
0 times a member of the LDS leadership has ever told me what to do or say in my job
0- the number of times I expect to ever have that happen

Polls for the week ending December 27, 2011

2008 Iowa Caucus Results by County

We're a little delayed thanks to the holiday but here's our weekly look at the national polls.
Last week's GOP nomination polls ended on December 17, and we have new data for this week's polls!
Last week we saw Newt Gingrich drop 4%, Mitt Romney holding on with his usual 20ish percent, and it was Michele Bachmann with the surprising gain of 3.2% overtaking Rick Perry. 

This week Gingrich is still in the lead, but that little green line of his is still going down, while the Romney purple line inched up. Ron Paul takes a completely unimpressive third place, a good 10-14 points behind the leaders.
The data for PPP is so far off from the other polls that I looked back at their last set of numbers. The last data from them was in early November, and even then their numbers were completely different (in Gingrich's favor) from the other polls conducted that week. It makes me want to toss their numbers out personally. If we pull out the PPP numbers, Gingrich's national average is 25.75, and Romney at 25.5. And we've got ourselves a horse race!

On to "First in the Nation" Iowa Caucuses-
For the last two weeks we have seen a drastic change in numbers coming out of Iowa. Prior to the Fox News televised debates we had Gingrich 30%, Romney 20%, Paul 11%, Perry 8%, Bachmann 9%, Santorum 5%, Huntsman 2%, and Cain still in the race with 5%.
But then two days later there was news that a new Rasmussen polls had Romney in the lead at 23%.
But then Cain dropped out of the race, and the polls all changed. Gingrich dropped by 13%, Ron Paul jumped ahead 8%, and everyone saw movement all over the place.
But it is Ron Paul that needs to be looked at carefully. Last week he had only 11%, and now he's up to 19.3%.
And then after Cain dropped out, and we had the Iowa debates, we found Gingrich, Paul, and Romney are all within 2 points of each other, and Michele Bachmann started sending out emails saying she was winning Iowa! 

So here we are exactly one week away from the Iowa caucus, and things have changed again!
Ron Paul is in the lead! It isn't a strong lead, but he is definitely in the lead. Romney is hot on his heels, and Gingrich has dropped into no man's land. And Michele Bachmann? 5th place.
Because I'm starting to feel incredibly skeptical about any and all data out of PPP, I'm redoing the numbers, dropping their data. It moves Ron Paul to 22, and Mitt Romney to 21.5. Considering the margin of error on these polls, I'd say we don't really know who is going to win in Iowa! It will be either Ron Paul or Mitt Romney, but I think the numbers have been too volatile to really say that with any confidence.

Now for the Live Free state of New Hampshire-
Last week Romney was in the lead, but he had dropped just a skosh.
Now looking at this week's numbers-

How about we just call it for Romney now?

GOP Polls for week ending Dec 17, 2011

Wow, what a difference one week makes! The polls are still leaning in Gingrich's favor nationally, but his lead is definitely not a sure thing.
Quick wrap up on the polls for last week (GOP polls for week ending Dec 12). Gingrich was still on the rise, with his average lead nationally about 12 points ahead of Romney. Romney was continuing to hold on to his consistent 20%. Cain was still showing up in the numbers, and Ron Paul had moved up to about 9%. The rest of the pack showed little to no change (as always).
This week is our first official non-Cain polling week. And what a difference a week makes!

Gingrich is down 4%
Romney is ever faithful with his 22.5% (up 1.7%)
Ron Paul moved up .3%
Michele Bachmann is the surprise dark horse this week and moves up 3.2% to 4th place, putting her a full point of Rick Perry (who saw no change).
Rick Santorum stays steady at 3.5%.
And Jon Huntsman moves up from 2.5 to to 3.0, which if you think about it, is a 25% increase in supporters for him. So bravo Jon Huntsman!

The Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina

After such a lengthy post about the national polls yesterday, I decided to wait a day to do the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and take a look at the rest of the country as well.

Iowa-
Last week we saw the RCP average ranking Gingrich 26, Romney 15.8, Paul 13.6, Cain, 12.0, Bachman 7.8, Santorum 4.6, Huntsman 2.0.
Data came from polls conducted by Des Moines Register, NBC/Marist, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen Reports, and The Polling Company, gathered over November 11-30

This week the data comes from completely different sources, and from overlapping dates!

Considering the overlapping dates of this week's polls and last week's polls, I decided to make my own table, only pulling in data that covers November 29-30 (which mind you was nearly 2 weeks ago, and means Cain was still in the picture).

My numbers don't really change anything. But I really didn't like that RCP was combining polls that overlapped before Cain dropped out. My numbers all intersect two days, which theirs did not.
In short, Gingrich has Iowa locked up. Which is why the accusation in stonezine.com yesterday that the Romney camp is telling people to vote for Paul makes absolutely no sense. I didn't make this up (they did).

Why would any candidate want to tell his supporters to vote for someone else in order to avert defeat? If anything, Romney would be doing everything in his power right now to make sure he himself comes in second, and to not let Ron Paul beat him.

One thing is for sure though, the Gingrich team doesn't have the money of the Romney team. (Romney had a fundraiser in New Jersey last night that brought in $1.1 million! It rumored that Gingrich may only have $4 million total in his war chest. (Source: Chicago Tribune) That money won't last long with media buys coming up in more states.

Speaking of other states (that matter more in the long run), let's take a look at New Hampshire.

The only new poll on here is the CNN/Time poll. NBC and Rasmussen were in last week's numbers (along with a few other sources as well). And the CNN/Time poll was also taken over the days that covered the Cain drop. So again, not really indicative of what people are really thinking now. We still have Romney with a significant lead over Gingrich, and the rest of the pack. Last week's numbers, which again, covered most of the same dates, had Romney leading with 16.5. Just goes to show you how little you can trust polling. Drop some data, add some data, and tada! You can change the results!

So let's take our first look at the rest of the country, shall we?
South Carolina (primary to be held January 21, 2012)-

Gingrich is in the lead. And looking back at the polls over the past few months tells us that Cain had a stronghold there until mid-November. That support appears to have gone to Gingrich. It is interesting that Romney really maintains that 20% across the country (as I discussed yesterday). The real fight is going to be for third place between Perry, Paul, and Bachmann.

After South Carolina will be the Florida primary on January 31.

Romney has never had a strong lead in Florida, but up until the end of October, he maintained a fairly steady lead. Then Cain had his short burst of fame, and quick demise. And just like in all of the other states, that support moved over to Gingrich.
It scares me to see that Gingrich line on the graphs skyrocketing up like that. Anyone else remember the last time we saw a skyrocket candidate at the last second?
Let me remind you-

Anything look familiar there? Look at the way the McCain line (brown) just jumps up at the last minute. Remember how we all came to quickly regret McCain? He wasn't a candidate anyone felt strongly about, or wanted to support. (And then there was the Palin disaster... Oy vey. At least we dodged a bullet there.) The Gingrich rise scares me in the same way the McCain rise did. Makes you wonder if Giuliani had cared more about Iowa and New Hampshire, if things would have gone differently?

But if you look at the news today, I'm not the only one wondering if we're about to see another "Giuliani moment" among the candidates?

Picking apart the effectiveness of Union Leader endorsements

New Hampshire State Flag, Source: Wikipedia

Each presidential primary the Union-Leader newspaper endorses a candidate. The 2012 GOP candidate they have selected is Newt Gingrich. But is the Union Leader effective in picking the winning candidates?


Their past endorsements with the New Hampshire winners in blue.

Union Leader Endorsements

2008- John McCain

2004- (incumbent year for George W. Bush)
2000- Steve Forbes

1996- Pat Buchanan

1992- Pat Buchanan
1988- Pete duPont
1984- (incumbent year for Ronald Reagan)

1980- Ronald Reagan

1976- Ronald Reagan
1972- John Ashbrook

1968- Richard Nixon

The Union Leader's pick only won 4 times out of 9. But how many times did the Union Leader endorsement pick the national nomination winner? (answers above in red) 3 times out of 9 (Nixon, Reagan, McCain). Or in other words, they lost more than they won.

Just for fun let's see how many times did the New Hampshire primary picked the national nominee?

New Hampshire Primary Winners - (names in red show the national GOP nominee)

2008- John McCain

2004- (incumbent year)

2000- George W. Bush

1996- Pat Buchanan
1992- (incumbent year)
1988- George H.W. Bush
1984- (incumbent year)

1980- Ronald Reagan

1976- Ronald Reagan

1972- Gerald Ford

1968- Richard Nixon

If we take out incumbent years New Hampshire was indicative of the national winner six out of 8 times. They were only wrong about Ford beating Reagan in 1976, and Buchanan in 96.

It is also interesting to note that the GOP New Hampshire primary picked the overall national winner five times out of eight. And the Union Leader? They managed to endorse the overall national winner two times out of nine.

In short, is the Union Leader effective in influencing the winner of the New Hampshire primary? Not really, with only 30%. And they are really not effective at influencing who the national GOP nominee will be. But it is significant that the voters of New Hampshire are frequently right about who the national nominee and the national winner will be!

In other words, Gingrich shouldn't be getting too excited about winning this endorsement.


SOURCE: Red State "The Union Leader's Endorsement Record"
And several different Wikipedia pages, and the author's own memory.