Vote Your Conscience!

This election season has brought out more emotions, vitriol, and accusations than any other election cycle in modern U.S. memory. 
As I watch the country bicker and slander each other, something stands out at me- how grateful I am to live in a country where we have the freedom to speak our minds and to vote. And that despite the general unhappiness among the people in this election cycle, we do not fear a coup in our government. We have rarely ever been so split as a country, and yet we know that regardless of the outcomes of election day, that we will not be in a civil war the next day. That is a blessing and gift many other countries cannot claim.
My loyalties are to my country and my personal beliefs. I am not loyal or subject to a particular ruler, candidate, or political party. We are all always free to vote in a private setting where we can choose to vote our conscience. We are not pressured or forced to vote for an unfair ruler in a sham and insult to democracy. No one except for you will know who you voted for. And we will never be punished for our vote. This right and ability to always vote our conscience is one of the greatest gifts we have as Americans.
Our Founding Fathers made the choice to set up our country as a republic, and not a straight democracy. We get to cast our personal vote, but then our votes are represented in the Electoral College. In recent months, the Electoral College has received more attention than usual. People have argued that it is an antiquated and redundant system. But today as I think more about the freedom to vote your conscience in private, the more I respect the Electoral College.
Consider this for one moment. If the electoral representatives had reason to suspect that certain demographics had been forced to vote for a tyrant or dishonest figure, and not get to vote their conscience, the Electoral College could choose to override the dishonest votes, and instead vote with the true will of the people. The Electoral College is a simple concept that in good years may seem pointless or redundant. But in the event of a bad year, this seemingly inconsequential procedure could truly be the thing that protects our ability to vote our conscience.
I have considered leaving my personal endorsement and announcement of who I will vote for here. But the more I think about it, the more I realize that by choosing to do so, I will lessen my point above. Your vote is your personal choice. You can vote for who you believe in, no matter who that person is. You are not restricted by party names or labels. We all have the ability to vote without fear of punishment or repercussion. So my personal endorsement does not matter, but my vote does. Just like yours.
Go out and vote. Vote your conscience, because you can!

10 Ideas to Make Politics Less Rotten

Freakonomics Radio: 10 Ideas to Make Politics Less Rotten

In my dreamworld, every person in the United States would listen to this. (I'm far too Libertarian to say "every person would be required.") It's just too good. It's too right. It's in every possible way completely needed. People need a better education about how the politics in the United States works from an unbiased and actually educated and experienced source. And this podcast episode does a great job of breaking it down and explaining things in just the right now. (In my humble opinion.)

Ever heard of the Seattle idea of "Democracy Dollars?" Personally, I love it. (And you can bet that if we had that system at the federal level, there is no way Trump or Hillary would be our current candidates.)

No cheering at debates? Please and thank you! Listen, I've been one of the staffers sent to a debate to make as much noise as possible. I know how completely rigged those audiences are.

And Howard Dean is spot on (never thought I'd say that) about the Electoral College.

Go listen to it. It's great. It's interesting. And it just might open your mind.


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Electoral Votes versus Popular Votes

There is a renewed interest in the Electoral College across the US right now. Many people are disenfranchised with their party’s candidate, and are wondering whether or not voting for a third party candidate will help or hinder the other party.

The big question out there is can a candidate win without 50% of the popular vote? And how does the Electoral College really work? There are a lot of people out there right now unhappy with both Trump and Clinton, and are turning to Johnson out of desperation. But does Johnson have a chance at winning? Or will his presence make a real difference in keeping someone else from winning? There are even people who hope that maybe former Governor Mitt Romney could somehow win as a write-in candidate.

The bottom line is this- right now, it is very possible that the Electoral College results will not reflect the popular vote. And it is also very possible that if enough people continue to show their support for a third party candidate, that the electoral college will not produce a winner, and the presidency will be determined by the lame duck Congress and Senate.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Let’s start back at the beginning.

Instead of selecting a president based on how many votes they receive, the Founding Fathers established what's called the Electoral College. Each state gets the same number of electors as it has Congressmen and Senators -- and the bigger the state, the more electors it has.  (In all but 2 states (Maine and Nebraska), the winner of the popular vote will get all of the Electoral College votes.)

There are a total of 538 electors. A candidate needs the vote of more than half (270) to win the Presidential election. There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their states. Some states, however, require Electors to cast their votes according to the popular vote. These pledges fall into two categories—Electors bound by state law and those bound by pledges to political parties*. Throughout history more than 99 percent of Electors have voted as pledged.

It is possible to win the presidency without winning the popular vote. In 2000, President George W. Bush lost the popular vote to Vice President Al Gore by .51% but won the Electoral College 271 to 266.  (Who voted that year and doesn’t remember the significance of the “hanging chad?”)

In 2012 President Barack Obama got 51% of the nationwide votes, narrowly defeating Governor Mitt Romney in the popular vote. But those votes translated into 61% of the Electoral College votes, giving the illusion of an overwhelming victory.  Winning in key states with the larger number of electoral votes matters.

As of 5pm Eastern time on July 27, 2016, neither Donald Trump or Secretary Hillary Clinton has over 50% of the popular vote according to polls. As of this moment, Real Clear Politics polling average shows Trump at 45.7% and Clinton at 44.6%.  If you change it to a 3-way race, and include Governor Gary Johnson, it changes to Trump 39.6, Clinton 39.2, and Johnson 8.6.

It is of great significance that if you then translate those votes into electoral votes that the situation shifts into Clinton’s favor. According to the popular website “270 to win” Clinton currently has 241 electoral votes, while Trump only has 105, with 125 “toss up” votes too close to determine. (Which means Trump and Clinton are within 5 percentage points of each other, making it too close to call.) Those 125 votes will easily give Clinton the remaining 29. (All she has to do is win Florida to make that happen.)  Obviously, the Trump campaign will do everything in its power to gain traction in those gray states.  Johnson does have a fighting chance in Utah and New Mexico, but the 11 votes between the two states won’t make much of a difference.

Real Clear Politics shows Clinton/Kaine with 202 electoral votes, Trump/Pence with 164, and 172 toss up votes. RCP was updated as of July 25, 270 to win was update July 19.

But we have to go back to the importance of the difference between the words majority and popular. Remember that only 2 states divide up the electoral votes to represent the popular votes. All of the other states are winner-takes-all. In other words, a vote for a third party candidate could throw the election in favor of a different party in those states.

But let’s keep going with the “what if” game. What if no one gets enough electoral votes? It’s highly unlikely at this point, but in this completely unprecedented election year, anything could happen.

What happens if no one wins the Electoral College? What happens next? If no candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes, the House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote. (In other words, forget drafting Mitt Romney. He could only win as a write-in, and not in the Electoral College.)

The Senate would elect the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most Electoral votes. (In other words, Johnson’s running mate, Gov. Bill Weld, has almost no hope of winning an office.) Each Senator would cast one vote for Vice President. If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House. 

I won’t decide for you whether or not voting third party will make a difference in this election. Everyone should vote their conscience and for the candidate they believe in. And no one interested in voting third party should be discouraged by this information. If there is anything we have learned in this election cycle it’s that the unbelievable, unprecedented, and impossible can happen. And we’ve definitely seen that there are people out there who aren’t happy with the status quo. If enough people forget about loyalty to labels and vote their conscience, this could be the year that the Electoral College changes.

*One last thought- It could also be the year that the Electoral College doesn’t follow historic precedent. There is no federal law that requires electors to vote as they have pledged. Twenty-nine states and the District of Columbia have legal control over how their electors vote in the Electoral College. This means their electors are bound by state law and/or by state or party pledge to cast their vote for the candidate that wins the statewide popular vote. At the same time, this also means that there are 21 states in the union that have no requirements of, or legal control over, their electors. Therefore, despite the outcome of a state’s popular vote, the state’s electors are ultimately free to vote in whatever manner they please, including an abstention, with no legal repercussions.

What happens if an Elector violates the state law? It’s a misdemeanor or small fine, usually only $1,000.

The states where Electors are bound – Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming.
Notable battleground states where Electors are not bound- Florida and Georgia.

My independent vote counts

Today it occurred to me how much more my vote counts this year than ever before. Because I intend to vote third party.
Most people would argue right now that a vote for an independent or write-in presidential candidate is a throw away vote. But today I realized that's simply not true.
My vote means more because it sends the strong message of who really represents me and my values.
I cannot vote for Hillary Clinton. She's dishonest. I don't trust anything she says. And plain and simple she just doesn't represent my political beliefs.
I cannot vote for Donald Trump. He's too arrogant, too brazen, and too unreliable to be trusted. He doesn't represent my beliefs morally or politically. I believe a vote for Donald Trump is a vote for the next world war.
I will not follow the half-hearted Republican cry to rally 'round the nominee presumptive. The word "Republican" means nothing to me. I see no reason to stay loyal to a label. I choose instead to stay loyal to my beliefs. I am ashamed of the party leaders who know that Trump is the wrong candidate, and yet are sticking with the party. (I have felt no loyalty to the party for many years. But they particularly alienated me when the evangelicals who run the party began to support the morally defunct Trump - a known philanderer, but couldn't support the Mormon Romney. Talk about unforgivable hypocrisy.)
And that is why my independent vote matters so much more this year. It may not be a tipping point vote that helps pick the next POTUS. But it will send a loud message about who does and will represent my beliefs.

Possible Election Outcomes and What Happens if there is a Tie??

Tuesday is coming! Tuesday is coming!

And finally all of the political ads and polling calls will end!! YEAH!!!

Real Clear Politics (and several other outlets) have some useful tools for creating your own electoral results map. My best guess for the electoral college is below.I scrolled my page so that I couldn't see the electoral count total at the top, so I wouldn't be tempted to swing a state one way or the other to make my candidate win.  I was very surprised by the total number in the end. I didn't realize a tie was a possibility in the electoral college!

(I created my own electoral map on Real Clear Politics.)
Any time there was a 2 or 3 point spread, I gave it to the higher party. If there was only a 0-2 point spread I gave it to the underdog, IF and only if the chart shows an upward trend in recent weeks for the underdog. The only 2 states I really don't think anyone can call are Virginia and Colorado. I gave both to Romney using my underdog trending upward theory. And because you don't see a lot of Obama supporters in my town. I also called Nevada for Romney based on the fact that in the past it has gone Republican, except in 2008.

So what happens if there is a tie at the electoral college? Some fascinating stuff I tell you. And a strong scenario for a Romney-Biden administration.
Say what?
Oh yes.
Time for a lesson on the Founding Fathers, the Constitution, the Electoral College, and the calendar that will blow your mind.
We vote on November 6.
Sometime between Nov 6 and Dec 11 the electoral representatives gather with their states to formally declare that their state will be voting a certain way.
(Ahem, people are already raising the Ron Paul disruption flag here. I have no desire to address that right now. Maybe I will if and when there really is a tie.)
The electoral college will be held on December 17th. The votes are cast, but not counted.
The votes are formally counted on January 6.
NOTE- The new 113th Congress will swear-in on January 3rd!
Therefore it is the NEW House of Representatives that counts the votes for president. The new Senate counts the votes for VP. If there is a tie, the 12th Amendment declares that the House then gets to vote and decide who will be the president. And the Senate will vote on who gets the VP seat.
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL- The new House is expected to go overwhelmingly GOP. But the Senate is still a toss up!
And because our Founding Fathers never really cared for a majority of the popular vote of anything, the winner must win with a 2/3rds majority! And the Senate will most likely be 50/50!
Who casts the deciding vote when the Senate is all tied up?
The vice president!
You know, VP Biden.
Yes, it is possible that he would then have to cast the deciding vote for the VP. Does he vote for himself or Paul Ryan in that scenario??
Another interesting conundrum- if you are the newly elected congressperson, and you are a Republican, but your district voted for Obama for president, who do you vote for in your first ever chance to vote in the House? Your party or your people???

(Source: An Electoral College Tie Would Be an Hilarious Disaster, Huffington Post)

Now, another suggestion from my polluted late-night mind-

Sadly, we all know that New York has been suffered a lot of devastation from Hurricane Sandy. Much of the 5 boroughs are still under water and without electricity. This is likely to effect voter turnout. They are already talking about consolidating precincts (and when people don't know where to go vote they don't turn out), and how many precincts have no power.
New York is firmly in the blue right now. Obama has a 26% lead over Romney.
BUT! If voter turnout is low in the boroughs, could the rest of the state sway the overall vote?
Take a look at these older maps-

The top map is Bush/Kerry, the bottom is Obama/McCain. Both times the state went for the Democrat. But look at how much of the state is actually red! Personally I feel that the Bush/Kerry models are more accurate than the Obama/McCain models because McCain never had the support that Romney does now.
In my humble opinion, without the boroughs New York is in play. The overall vote is more important than the county results. And if few people turn out to vote in the boroughs, that can really sway things.

FACT CHECK- I am fairly certain that I am right about overall vote versus county results. I have heard that this is not the case in all states. I can't find any information to indicate I am wrong about New York.

If you pull New York out of the "strong Obama" category and move it to "leaning Romney" you really have a toss up scenario.

One more detail to note- New York has a little known law that allows them to hold a second voting day in case of a natural disaster!

(In all fairness, I applied this same logic to New Jersey which was also hard hit by the storm. However, the state overall is fairly split blue and red, but no one side of the state is more red or blue.) 

Here are a few more maps and the way these major publications are calling it-

CNN electoral map with toss-ups Obama 237, Romney 206. 

NY Times with toss-ups., Obama 243, Romney 206. The major difference between NYT and CNN is NYT is calling Nevada for Obama. 

Real Clear Politics with no toss-ups. Obama 290, Romney 248. 

All 3 publications are calling Nevada for Obama. I personally think this is a mistake. Nevada is currently Obama 50, Romney 47.3. Romney has never had the lead in Nevada, but he is on an upward trend there. I think that is a good sign he could catch up and win. And I have a hard time believing that in the end the Mormons won't come out and really win it for him. That is the only state I truly disagree with the polls on. I really do thing the rest of the toss up states are unpredictable at this point.

And more than anything, I think there is little to no chance of this election actually getting settled and answered on Tuesday night.

North Carolina is Up for Grabs

CNN (who has a history of calling these things right) has moved North Carolina from the "leans Romney" category to the "toss up" category, according to a new CNN/Time Magazine/ORC International poll. 

The poll shows 48% of likely voters for Mitt Romney and 47% for President Barack Obama.
Other polls from other organizations conducted earlier this summer also indicated a close contest in North Carolina.
CNN currently shows Romney with 191 electoral votes, 237 for Obama, and 110 up for grabs!