Why I Care Less and Less About Trump

I'm starting to care less and less about Donald Trump running for president. Why? Precedent.
It's taken me a while to remember who his predecessors are, but thankfully, he does have them.

Donald Trump isn't the first three ring circus candidate we've seen ride a very early wave. And all of them have crash and burned before things got real.

Take Rudy Giuliani for instance. Seven years since he ran for president it's hard to remember he was ever a contender. He was fun, he was exciting, and he was an "alternative" candidate to the usual suits, not unlike Trump. But after the fun of the shock and awe wore off, people remembered what they really want in a leader, and it isn't tantalizing soundbites.

Remember in 2011 when Rick Perry was so far ahead of Mitt Romney that no one thought Romney had a prayer?

And then there is the distant memory of Ross Perot. Good old Ross Perot with his pie charts. I was still in high school back then, and a die hard Republican. After watching Perot on TV with his charts and diagrams, I couldn't wait to turn 18 just to vote for him. (Alas, I turned 18 in January, and missed my chance to vote for him by just 2 months.) I interned on Capitol Hill (as a high school intern- really, it's a thing) that year. The congressman I worked for was firmly in the Perot camp. After all, his district had some of the strongest Perot turn out. I can still remember Perot personally calling the congressman one day, and somehow I answered the phone. I put Ross Perot on hold and sprinted down the hall to grab the congressman who was on his way to a meeting. It was the only time I've ever seen him look the tiniest bit frazzled or excited as he sprinted his way back to answer that call.

Anyway, you recall how Perot ended, right? In a Clinton presidency. Perot pulled just enough of the GOP base away (18%), that Clinton beat Bush the First. (Of course, "Read my lips, no new taxes," didn't help Bush much either.)

But more importantly, Perot ended as a third party so-called Reformer candidate. Perot and Trump have a lot in common- both are wealthy businessman, and both like to speak in plain, blunt terms, and don't worry about political correctness. My biggest fear is Trump will follow Perot's footsteps, and cause more harm than good to his party in the long run.

But maybe Trump will stay true to the Republican party? Maybe he he won't. Only time will tell. But precedent tells us he probably won't stand the test of time. 

A Closer Look at Rick Perry

At the top you will find Rick Perry's 2016 campaign platform (copied from his website). After the break line, you can find his 2012 campaign platform. Compare and contrast.

Expanding Opportunity For All
ECONOMIC GROWTH
LOWER TAXES
RETIRE THE DEBT
NATIONAL SECURITY
STOP SPECIAL INTERESTS & BIG GOVERNMENT

If we want to live up to that timeless American commitment – to expand opportunity for all who come after us – we need to do big things.

We need to grow the economy, so that every American can find work, and that those who already have work can earn more.

We need to make life more affordable, by helping Americans keep more of what they earn, and by lowering the cost of everyday expenses.

We need to retire the federal debt, in order to protect the safety net for the most vulnerable, and to ensure that our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren can enjoy the prosperity, security, and freedom that we have promised them.

We need to make America safer and stronger by rebuilding our military, and working with our allies to promote peace, prosperity, and tolerance around the world. The federal government also needs to do its constitutional duty and secure the border once and for all.

We need to end the culture of cronyism and bailouts, a culture that caters to politically- connected people and politically-connected businesses at the expense of small enterprises and average Americans.

FAMILY and LIFE

• Under Gov. Perry’s leadership, Texas banned abortions after 20 weeks.
• Gov. Perry signed the Women’s Right to Know Act, which requires doctors performing abortions to let women know that benefits may be available to help with medical care before, during and after childbirth. He has also signed legislation funding alternatives to abortion.
• To ensure a woman has all the facts before making the decision to get an abortion, Gov. Perry signed a law requiring doctors to perform a sonogram prior to an abortion.
• In 2005, Gov. Perry signed legislation requiring parental consent before a minor daughter can receive an abortion.
• Gov. Perry championed a constitutional amendment that was supported by 76% of Texas voters defining marriage as between one man and one woman.

Health Care

• In 2003, Texas passed tort reform legislation that is touted as a national example. The number of medical malpractice lawsuits fell by nearly 2/3 between 2003 and 2011, and Texas has licensed nearly 30,000 more doctors since the passage of this bill.
• Rather than further straining a broken system, Gov. Perry refused to expand Medicaid under Obamacare.
• Gov. Perry also refused to facilitate the government takeover of health care by declining to start a state-run health insurance exchange in Texas.

Economy


Texas’ economic success under Gov. Perry’s leadership is a model for a foundation that allows employers to create jobs and opportunity for hardworking families. As governor, Rick Perry focused on keeping taxes low and regulations smart and predictable, on creating a legal system that doesn’t allow for over-suing, and on ensuring Texas has a skilled and educated workforce. The results are undisputed – Texas created 1.5 million jobs from December 2007 to December 2014, and without those jobs the nation would be a net-negative 400,000 jobs.

• Texas added over 2.2 million new jobs while Perry was governor.
• Under Perry’s leadership, Texas created nearly 30% of all new private-sector jobs in America.
• Texas created almost four times more jobs under Gov. Perry than the nation at large.
• The number of women in the workplace has grown by over 1 million since Gov. Perry took office.
• The number of jobs in the upper-middle wage quartile increased by more than 25% in Texas under Gov. Perry’s leadership, while job growth in that category has been stagnant in the rest of the country.
• Texas is the nation’s top exporting state for the 13th year in a row, and surpassed California in 2012 to become the nation’s top high-tech exporting state.
• Texas’ real GDP increased by more than 55% under Gov. Perry’s leadership.
• Texas’ real per capita GDP increased by $9,250 under Gov. Perry.

(In the interest of time and space, here's the link to the rest of his record - https://rickperry.org/record_ 

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Who is Rick Perry?

Campaign Issues 
CUT, BALANCE, AND GROW
CUT Taxes and Spending. BALANCE the Budget by 2020. GROW Jobs and the Economy.

FIX THE TAX CODE

• Institute Individual Flat Income Tax Rate of 20%

• Allow Individuals to Choose Existing Tax Code or Simple Flat Tax System
• Preserve Deductions for Mortgage Interest, Charity, and State/Local Taxes
• Include Standard Exemption for Individuals/Dependents of $12,500
• Standard Exemptions and Other Deductions are Phased Out for Filers with Annual Incomes Above $500,000

Eliminate Tax on Social Security Benefits
Eliminate Tax on Dividends and Capital Gains
Eliminate Death Tax
No Federal Sales Tax or Value-Added Tax
Reduce Corporate Income Tax Rate to 20% to Enhance American Competitiveness
Eliminate Corporate Loopholes and Special-Interest Tax Breaks
Transition to a Territorial Tax System
Allow Locked-Up Overseas Capital to be Brought Back to the U.S. at a Reduced Tax Rate of 5.25%

FIX THE FEDERAL REGULATORY SYSTEM
Immediate Moratorium on All Pending Regulations
Full Audit of Every Regulation Passed Since 2008
Regulations that fail audit will be repealed
Federal Regulations Automatically Sunset Unless Congress Renews Them
Institute Annual Regulatory Budget for Each Agency
Create a Searchable Public Database with All Regulations Currently in Force

FIX SOCIAL SECURITY FOR ALL GENERATIONS OF AMERICANS
Preserve Benefits for Current and Near-Term Social Security Beneficiaries
Protect Social Security Trust Fund
Allow Younger Workers to Invest In Personal Retirement Accounts
Allow State Employees to Opt Out of Social Security
Gradually Increase Full Retirement Age to Reflect Gains in Life Expectancy
Use Price Growth to Index Benefits for Higher-Income Beneficiaries

FIX MEDICARE AND MEDICAID TO IMPROVE HEALTH CARE
-Reform Medicare to be Sustainable for the Long-Term
-Return Medicaid Responsibility to States to Increase Health Care Quality and Access

BALANCE THE BUDGET
Cap Federal Spending at 18% of GDP and Balance the Budget by 2020
Reduce Non-Defense Discretionary Spending by $100 Billion in the First Year
Demand a Balanced Budget Amendment that Does Not Raise Taxes
End Baseline Budgeting and Require Common-Sense Scoring Rules
Reform the Budget Process

• Institute Automatic Government Shutdown Protection
• Give Annual Budget Resolution the Force of Law
• No More Earmarks
• Require Emergency Spending to be Spent Only on Emergencies
• PAYGO for New Federal Programs

-Freeze Federal Civilian Hiring and Salaries Until the Budget is Balanced
-No More Bailouts

REPEAL JOB-KILLING FEDERAL LAWS
-Repeal ObamaCare
-Repeal Onerous Sarbanes-Oxley Regulations on Small Businesses
-Repeal Dodd-Frank

Energy and Jobs-
Expand energy exploration offshore and on federal and private lands across the country by executive order, creating over 1.2 million jobs
Eliminate current and proposed activist EPA regulations from the Obama administration, saving 2.4 million jobs by 2020 and lowering projected costs by $127 billion
Reduce, rebuild, and refocus the EPA federal regulators, returning authority to the states
Level the playing field for all energy producers, removing Obama’s practice of picking winners and losers and ending the Obama war on coal and natural gas production

Professional Background
US Air Force Officer (Captain) (honorable discharge in 1977)
Farmer (cotton, milo, wheat)

Political Accomplishments
47th Governor of Texas
3 terms in the Texas House of Representatives (elected 1984), as a "Reagan Democrat," switching to Republican in his third term.
Elected as Agriculture Commissioner 1990, 1994
First Republican Lt. Governor in over 100 years.
Became Governor in 2000 when George W. Bush resigned to become President. Re-elected 3 times.

Personal Background
Eagle Scout
Texas A&M University, Animal Science (1972)
Wife, Anita, 2 children

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2016 Presidential Primary Candidates on Healthcare

"Gov. Bobby Jindal in Oklahoma 2015" by Michael Vadon - https://www.flickr.com/photos/80038275@N00/17871530750. Licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons 

I've been gone for a while, but I'm back. It's time to start talking about the new round of contestants in the presidential campaign primary elections! (Please go back and re-read that last line in your best Bob Barker "Price is Right" voice.) 

As is always the case this early on, the field is flooded with nearly identical campaign platforms. I will be taking the next few weeks, maybe months, to highlight the contenders and the issues. 

Today we start with a simple line item comparison of where they all stand on healthcare. 

The following statement are direct quotes from the candidates' websites, thereby keeping my opinion out of things [for the time being].

Rick Perry - no website statement

Scott Walker - I refuse to "get an account" on his site to get past the front page

Donald Trump - no website statement (but I did learn that "he is the very definition of the American success story") 

Mike Huckabee - "ObamaCare is a $2.2 trillion disaster that dumps millions of people into a broken, expensive system and does nothing to fix the basic problems everyday Americans face. We must tackle out-of-control costs. ObamaCare raided $700 billion from Medicare. This is not reform — it’s theft. We must reject government dependency. We need solutions and choices — not government mandates and new taxes. We must address pre-existing conditions with common sense. As a governor, I know these issues first hand. Our system of “sick care” is upside down. Doctors, hospitals and drug companies get paid for treating people who are sick — not keeping people healthy or preventing illnesses. So many Americans cannot afford to get sick, while others take advantage of a system that isn’t fair. ObamaCare simply doubles down on this backwards, broken, flawed and failing system. We need honesty, leadership and real reform. As President, I will repeal ObamaCare and fight for real health care reform."

Bobby Jindal - no website statement (but then, he's literally only been in the race 5 minutes)

Carly Fiorina - no website statement

Rand Paul - I was not a member of the United States Senate during the 111th Congress, but if I had been I would have voted against Obamacare. As your President, one of my first acts would be to repeal the abomination that is Obamacare.
As a doctor, I have had firsthand experience with the immense problems facing health care in the United States. Prior to the implementation of Obamacare, our health care system was over-regulated and in need of serious market reforms—but Obamacare is not the answer.
Government interventions in health care have driven up the cost of coverage and decreased competition within the market. More—not less—freedom to choose and innovate will make sure our health care system remains the best in the world.
As your President, I will ensure that real free-market principles are applied to the American health care system so that it is responsive to patients, families, and doctors, rather than government bureaucracy.

Hillary Clinton - Defend the Affordable Care Act and reduce health costs
We will slow the growth of overall health care costs and deliver better care to patients. And we will ensure that the savings from those reforms benefit families—not just insurance companies, drug companies, and large corporations.

Jeb Bush - no statement

Jim Webb - no statement

Martin O'Malley - no statement

Marco Rubio - "Repeal Obamacare and replace it with a conservative solution." There is a very long and detailed statement on his website. Also, for what it's worth, he has the most organized and detailed website of all the candidates thus far. 

Ted Cruz - no statement, which is a little shocking actually!

So basically what we've learned here today is that most of the candidates don't have an issues page up on their websites yet, And the Republicans that do are against Obamacare, and the Democrats that do like it. 

Don't miss my new novel, "You Heard It Here First!" on Amazon, Nook, and Kindle!

They're All Team Romney (Sort of)

And you thought we were done hearing from these guys.


Even when he drops out of a race, he has to do it his way. The former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich will soon be the former Republican presidential candidate- when he drops out next week.
Exactly what is the point in announcing that you will drop out in a week? How is that different from dropping out now?
When you are Newt, these things just happen. He claims it is because they are working out the details of his endorsement of Mitt Romney. Again, what is the point in announcing you are working out your endorsement, when obviously you will be endorsing?
Oh Newt, we might actually miss some of your antics. Or not.

In the meantime, someone who did not have to announce a week in advance that he would be endorsing Romney, former Republican presidential candidate and Texas Gov. Rick Perry is no longer Team Gingrich (now that Gingrich will be Team Romney (eventually)).
Here’s the full Perry statement:

“Mitt Romney has earned the Republican presidential nomination through hard-work, a strong organization, and disciplined message of restoring America after nearly four years of failed job-killing policies from President Obama and his administration. So today I join the many conservative Republicans across the nation in endorsing Mitt Romney for President and pledge to him, my constituents and the Republican Party that I will continue to work hard to help defeat President Obama. American jobs, economic stability and national security depend on electing a new president. Mitt’s vision and record of private sector success will put America back on the path of job creation, economic opportunity and limited government.”

He could have just said, "He beat the rest of us, and this is what good Republicans do who ever want to have a political future in the party," and that would have sufficed. 

Speaking of which, former Utah Governor and former Republican presidential candidate Jon Huntsman, Jr., apparently doesn't want a career in the GOP. 

In a recent speech to the Harvard Kennedy School he said, "The party is not in a good place right now, given its recent rhetoric on immigration." (Source: The Crimson) Comments like that don't go over well when a few folks are still annoyed over a comment he made in March to MSNBC. "I think we’re going to have problems politically until we get some sort of third party movement or some voice out there that can put forth new ideas. We might not win, but we can certainly influence the debate."

Silly me for thinking that a nominee emerging from the pack would mean we wouldn't have to hear from the other guys anymore. I guess everyone had to get one last word in!

Romney Wins New Hampshire, Now What?

South Carolina County Map

So Mitt won New Hampshire. Now what? 
Despite winning in nearly every group of voters (including winning across the conservatives) the fight isn't over. The race is going in Romney's favor, but is not yet a done deal. And nor should it be! The democratic and primary system was not set up so that two fairly small states could have more power than the other 48!
We're already seeing a shift in strategies. Newt "High Road" Gingrich has abandoned all pretenses of pretending to play nice with no negative strategies. He has come out both barrels blazing to attack Romney in a self-described 'Armageddon.' (Now who's the flip-flopper?)Asked about the negative ads from the Gingrich camp, Romney told Boston radio station WRKO on Tuesday that they "will not help" his rival.
"All I have got to do is keep my head down, keep talking about my message of getting America back to work, my experience in having led two businesses successfully, the Olympics successfully," Romney said.
Of course, Gingrich isn't alone in the attacks. Everybody and their brother's PAC are "on the hunt." This looks to be the fight of Romney's political life to not just survive South Carolina, but succeed in it. It is shaping up to be a bloodbath.
The absolute most current poll data released (taken yesterday) has Romney only leading Gingrich by 2 points in South Carolina (Insider Advantage). And that is from a poll taken after the NH victory. However, polls taken earlier in the week have him with as much as an 18 point lead. But again the fight for third place will be very significant. Paul and Santorum are neck and neck there, and both absolutely need to be to take third to be considered viable. And if Perry ends up in last place, there will be little reason for him to proceed to Florida. Huntsman can take last place and still go on to Florida because he had a strong enough showing in NH.
The difference between Perry and Huntsman right now comes down to having enough money to go forward, but more importantly delegates. Perry skipped New Hampshire, and Huntsman skipped Iowa. But Perry had a lousy showing in Iowa. So he's 0 for 2 right now. Huntsman is 1 for 2. Huntsman can afford another hit. But Perry really cannot. Florida and South Carolina primaries are close enough together that a candidate could financially stay in. But considering both men are polling with less than 5% in Florida, there wouldn't be much of a reason to proceed.
There will be another poll next Thursday night in South Carolina (hosted by CNN). Considering how well Huntsman performed last Saturday in the New Hampshire debate, and how that really seemed to give him a bump up in the primary, this will be key to his success.
It is also very important to realize that Ron Paul is a serious threat right now. He has the money to keep going on for several more states. And if he continues to come in second or third everywhere, collecting delegates as he goes, he alone could really draw things out. (And there is nothing he or his supporters would love more than to really draw things out.) I've looked back over the polling data before and after the debates. His numbers don't move at all. Debates don't seem to help or hurt him like they do the other candidates. He only has 11% in South Carolina, just 1-2 points behind Santorum, for a consistent 4th place. He has yet to break 10% in Florida. If it were any other candidate, I'd say it is time to start his exit strategy. But considering his coffers, and ability to outstay his welcome, I would say expect him to come out swinging harder than the rest. But he's a wily candidate. Don't expect him to go after Romney- everyone else is doing that already. He will focus his sites on Gingrich or Santorum. He's not shooting for first place. A second or third place slot will be his victory. Again, slowly picking up delegates as he rolls along.

Rick Perry "Transforms" His Position on Abortion

One week before Iowa and just two till New Hampshire, and Rick Perry has just changed his views on abortion- to an even more conservative point of view.
He likes to call it, "a transformation."
Previously he was opposed to abortion, except in cases of incest, rape, or risking the life of the mother. He has now transformed his views and opposes abortion even in the case of rape, incest or when the woman's life would be at risk.
He says he changed his views after meeting a woman who was the product/child of a rape. Her story was shared in an  abortion documentary screened by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Of course, it doesn't hurt that social conservatives are pretty powerful in Iowa, where Perry is in fourth place, but well within striking distance of beating Gingrich for third place. And it probably endears him just a little bit more to the Tim Tebow fans out there.

Source: NY Daily News
and Anderson Cooper 360

Gingrich and Perry Fail to Qualify for Virginia Primary Ballot

"I'm a Newt" "I'm a chipmunk!" (Linked to source: Salon.com)

Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have failed to gather and submit the required 10,000 minimum signatures from registered voters in Virginia in order to make the primary ballot in March, according to the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV).The ballot will now only be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. (Huntsman, Bachmann, and Santorum did not submit petitions.)

Gingrich did have a slight lead in Virginia over Mitt Romney in the Commonwealth, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday morning. Gingrich has 30 percent and Romney has 25 percent among VA Republican voters.

Instead of admitting he failed to gather enough signatures (his campaign was seen still gathering signatures outside of an event in Richmond on Thursday), Newt Gingrich's campaign criticized the process. "Only a failed system excludes four out of the six major candidates seeking access to the ballot. Voters deserve the right to vote for any top contender, especially leading candidates. We will work with the Republican Party of Virginia to pursue an aggressive write-in campaign to make sure that all the voters of Virginia are able to vote for the candidate of their choice.”

Way to endear yourself to the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV), Mr. Speaker. It's not like you haven't known for months that this was coming!  I wonder if when he's a visiting professor if he allows students to use that same excuse? "Professor, I've known for months that this was coming. But I think the system is wrong. Asking me to do homework in every class is too much. I'm going to start an aggressive write-in campaign from my parents and all my friends making sure I get to pass!" 

Weak sauce.

Let's Talk Debates!

Fox News 2012 GOP Debate, Linked to Source: ABC News

I watch the debates so you don't have to!
Here's what you missed by watching "Bones" last night (Was it good? I haven't seen it yet! No spoilers!)
I could really tell this was hosted by Fox News. The candidates were hit from the right about their conservative positions. For instance, abortion and right to life were made an issue, as was gun control. These haven't been issues in this campaign at all, so it was surprising to hear how much time was spent on those subjects.

"MOM! He keeps interrupting me!" "Am not! "Are too!" (linked to source)

Apparently Michele Bachmann ate her Wheaties yesterday, and came out fighting. At several different points it felt like it was Bachmann v. Everyone Else. She reminded me of an angry Yorkshire Terrier, barking and nipping at Newt Gingrich's heels. She also had a very memorable heated exchange with Ron Paul on foreign policy. She flat out said she had "never heard a more dangerous answer" than Paul's positions on Iran. (Which is to say, he doesn't think they have a nuke.)

"My name is Ron Paul, and until we open free trade with Iran, I won't be able to find a suit that fits." (linked to source)

Ron Paul doesn't back down in a fight, which is amusing considering his pacifist position on other issues. He really spent sometime standing up for his positions on Iran. "Why are we flying a drone over Iran?" He apparently thinks Iran sings kumbaya at night and prays for our peace.
I can finally sum up how he feels about Iran and Israel. "Our neighbor have guns, so we don't need to worry that we'll get attacked." (My words, not his.) His most memorable quote of the night was, "I don't want to run the world. I don't want to police individual activities or people's lifestyle, and I don't want to run the economy." Strange talk for a man running for the most powerful position in the world. It doesn't matter if anyone thinks he won or lost, because his supporters will think it was all rigged anyway.
In other news, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Ali Khamenei endorse Ron Paul. He finally gets some big name, national endorsements!

"My name is Mitt Romney, and I wear better ties than you!" (linked to source)

Mitt Romney was Mitt Romney last night. In many ways it was his night to lose, and I don't think he lost. But I don't think he "won" either. My favorite quote for him last night was, "Timidity and weakness invite aggression on the part of other people. This is a president, the spy drone being brought down, he says 'pretty please'? A foreign policy based on pretty please? You got to be kidding."
When attacked (by the moderators, and then Santorum) about his changing positions, his response essentially sounded like, "I used to favor flip-flopping, but now I'm against it."

Tim Tebow 'tebowing' (linked to source)

Rick Perry- what do I say there? I think he will gain a fan or two. It was definitely his best debate so far. But probably too little, too late. Calling himself the Tim Tebow of politics was pretty funny. Other than that, he wasn't all that notable or quotable. He did suggest that we should limit Supreme Court terms. That was sort of interesting.

Rick Perry Endorser Sheriff Joe Arpaio Accused of Civil Rights Violations

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. Linked to source: LA Times

Just two weeks ago the Rick Perry campaign sent out a newsletter with a strong endorsement from Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. At the time I questioned why of all people they would choose a sheriff's endorsement to circulate. Couldn't they get anyone better? The endorsement was all about how Perry, like Arpaio would be tough on illegal immigration.
Well, now they just might regret their pick of endorsements! Sheriff Arpaio is in the news today for a wide range of civil rights violations against Latinos, including a pattern of racial profiling and discrimination and carrying out heavy-handed immigration patrols based on racially charged citizen complaints. Not only that, but a federal grand jury is also investigating Arpaio's office on criminal abuse-of-power allegations and is examining the investigative work of the sheriff's anti-public corruption squad.

Doesn't sound like the kind of guy you want on your team now, does it? 

It will be interesting to see if this comes up in the debates tonight!

Meanwhile, let's take a quick look at other endorsements around the block-

GOP darling Christine O'Donnell has endorsed Mitt Romney

Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz backs "underdog" Rick Santorum (an endorsement that only holds weight in Iowa)

Newt Gingrich snagged the coveted Union Leader endorsement (but I've explained why that's a kiss of death here)

President of New Hampshire Right to Life endorses Rick Perry

Ron Paul, ever the master of social media, actually has a whole page on his website devoted to endorsements. Fans can create their own video, upload it to YouTube, and see it show up on the official Ron Paul site. Yet again showing their knowledge and domination of SEO, if you google "endorsements" one of the first suggestions (after endorsing a check) is "endorsements for Ron Paul." Bravo, campaigners, your ability to work the internet never ceases to impress me. That being said, I can't find where anyone of any political clout has endorsed Paul, other than the Daily Iowan newspaper. (And we all know how important that paper is!) 

If you want to see a list of major national or small state endorsements, check out P2012. It is very interesting to see how many are behind Romney (45 House members, 7 Senators, 3 Governors) and how many are behind Gingrich (1 Governor from his home state, 8 Congressmen - 5 of which are from his home state)!

I read the Iowa debate coverage news so you don't have to

Newt Romney at the Iowa Debate. Linked to Source at NY Daily News.

Having read nearly all of the Iowa debate coverage news (and having not seen the debate yet myself), I hereby give you the summary without any hidden bias-

Rick Perry attacked Mitt Romney by saying, "I read your first book and it said in there that your mandate in Massachusetts should be the model for the country. And I know it came out of the reprint of the book. But, you know, I'm just sayin', you were for individual mandates, my friend." In return, Romney denied such a thing, and went so far as to bet him $10,000 Perry was wrong. Romney haters (also known as Southern Baptists, Texans, and Democrats) are saying a wager of so much money makes him out of touch with real people. Romney supporters love him all the more for it.

The facts? In the first version of Romney's book, a line referring to a universal health care mandate reads: "We can accomplish the same thing for everyone in the country, and it can be done without letting government take over health care." In the later paperback version, the line was edited to read, "And it was done without the government taking over health care."

Apparently Twitter loved this moment, and Romney stole the Twitter show. Analysts report that out of 43,000 messages about the debate on Twitter, Romney was most popular with 30 percent. The rest: Gingrich at 22 percent, Bachmann at 19 percent, Paul at 13 percent, Santorum at 10 percent, and Perry at 5 percent.

Michele Bachmann's big zinger (and she does love her zingers) of the night was aimed at Newt Gingrich's lobbying past (ahem, present), saying that his office was located on "the Rodeo Drive of Washington, D.C., K Street." (A great way to make sure the deeper pockets of DC don't donate to your campaign. Also, K Street? Not that impressive to us local girls. We prefer to do our shopping on M Street.)

The Washington Post's political blogger, "the Fix," proclaimed his winners of the debate to be Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry. And solely put Mitt Romney as the only candidate in the loser column. The Fix feels that Gingrich had a few good moments, wasn't condescending, and was approachable. He commended Bachmann for her ever so popular soundbites and zingers, particularly, "Newt Romney." And for pandering to the former Herman Cain fans. And he lauded Rick Perry for his now popular line, "If you cheat on your wife, you will cheat on your business partner." Oh, and for Perry's attack on Romney about the health care mandates, which we've now learned are incorrect. So strike 1 for The Fix. Interesting to note that the winners and losers (Romney was considered a loser for his wagering), had nothing to do with policy and accuracy.

So how did Gingrich respond to Perry's (and others) attacks on his three marriages? (Let's not forget both Perry and Romney have ads out right now touting their fidelity. And Perry's is an unforgiving pandering to the religious right.) “I think people have to render judgment,” Mr. Gingrich said. “In my case, I said up front openly, I’ve made mistakes at times. I’ve had to go to God for forgiveness. I’ve had to seek reconciliation.” How can all those evangelicals turn their back on a penitent sinner? Well played, Mr. Speaker, well played. Of course, I'd like you more if you hadn't cheated on your wife and married the mistress, but that's not the point now, is it?

Gingrich, who has promised to take the high road and not resort to mean or personal attacks, lobbed one at Romney anyway, "The only reason you didn’t become a career politician is that you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994." Oh and Romney started it by calling Gingrich a career politician. (Well, duh.)

Not to be left out of the Gingrich attacks, Ron Paul reminded us that Gingrich received a lot of money from Freddie Mac. (Gingrich was paid up to $1.8 million in consulting fees.) “By the way, Newt, you probably got some of our taxpayer money.” He added, “You were a spokesman for them and you received money from them.” Gingrich again denied being a lobbyist for Freddie Mac, (he claims he was an historian), “I offered strategic advice — I was in the private sector.” To which Romney replied, “K Street is not the private sector!” Wow, K Street was popular last night.

In no-brainer news, all of the candidates attacked President Obama and the economy. And yet, they are split down the middle on who supports extending the Social Security payroll tax cuts (Romney, Gingrich, and Paul), and who are against it (Bachmann, Perry, and Rick Santorum.) (Jon Huntsman was not present.)

CNN didn't really have anything different to say from the other news outlets, but was the only site to explain that Huntsman opted out on his own accord. They also mentioned that Huntsman immediately sent out press release announcing he'd purchased the website 10kBet.com, after the Romney-Perry wager. 



With all of the news sources titling their articles with "Newt Attacked!" I was surprised at how few of them actually listed what those attacks were. Here is what I could find amidst the wreckage-

Romney to Gingrich: "We could start with this idea to have a lunar colony that would mine minerals from the moon," referring to a Gingrich proposal to mine for precious minerals on the moon.

Paul on Gingrich, "has taken some positions that are not conservative."

Bachmann's big zinger, "if you look at Newt-Romney, they were for Obamacare principles. If you look at Newt-Romney, they were for cap and trade." Apparently she was going for a 2 for 1 attack.

No quotes on barbs from Santorum. In fact, the only quote I can find from Santorum in any article is where he defended Gingrich's marital woes. Marital character is important, but added, "I would not say it's a disqualifier." Wait, wasn't Santorum running on the pro-family first ticket? Has he dropped his one and only platform idea to run for Gingrich VP?

CNN also brought back their debate analyst, Todd Graham. Graham is a professor of debate at a small, no-name university in Illinois. I bring this up, because I don't get why they keep going back to this guy. He doesn't even have a professional head shot next to his byline which bugs me for some reason. After every debate, Graham has written lengthy diatribes about how he doesn't like Romney's style. Not that he doesn't like Romney's policies (although, I suspect he doesn't), he doesn't like Romney's stage presence. Seriously, that's what he wastes 1,000 words to tell us. This week was no different, so I'm not feeling compelled to repeat him. But let it be known, CNN ran a piece saying Romney lost the debate.

Also, I felt like sharing this little cutout from the front page of CNN. Apparently their editors slept in on Sunday morning.

How many spelling errors is that?

Want to see the whole debate for yourself? ABC News already has it up and running on their site.


Sources:
ABC News: Iowa Debate: Republican Candidates Clash Amidst Newt Gingrich Surge, Mitt Romney Attacks
Washington Times: Gingrich assailed by rivals, fires back
ABC News: Bet On It: Twitter Loves Romney's Wager
NY Times: In GOP Iowa Debate, Rivals Target Newt Gingrich

Comparing the Candidates' Platforms

GOP Candidates at the CNN Debate, Source: NY Times (linked)

I decided to spend an evening comparing the different platforms of each of the GOP Candidates. I should have known better than to be as surprised as I was at the complete and total similarities between their stances on the issues. I thought a chart would really make it clear who is different and who is the same on certain policies. You'll note I left out Herman Cain. I'm assuming he will be dropping out of the race today anyway, but even if he doesn't, you'll recall yesterday I decided "anybody but Cain" was my stance. He doesn't get to be on my chart!

I made this chart. Any mistakes made were unintentional. All data gathered from candidates' websites.

Ron Paul definitely goes his own way on a few of his own personal initiatives. But other than that, and everyone's differing views on China, nearly all of their platforms are identical.
It is very interesting to note that Mitt Romney's platform is absolutely by far the most elaborate and well laid out. Hundreds of pages on job and tax reform plans. And I do mean HUNDREDS of pages! In comparison, I distinctly left Santorum off of my chart, because his official website doesn't have his platform listed (beyond being pro-life).
I strongly suspect that many of the blank spots above are probably also similar. I limited myself to what information I could find specifically on the candidate's websites, and not in news articles. (I like to hear it straight from the horse's mouth.) So for all I know Ron Paul could be for expediting fracking, but since I didn't find it on his official site, I don't have it checked here. Same with creating an oil partnership with Canada- Huntsman has it well laid out, but no one else does. Although, again, I suspect everyone but Ron Paul is in favor of it.
I do recall hearing in a debate that everyone had very different opinions on relations with China. However, only Gingrich and Romney mention it on their websites, and they are on opposite ends of the spectrum. It is significant to note that this is the only strong difference between the two men. Well, that and the fact that Gingrich's plan for reforms is to "ask the public" what they want changed and how they would change it, as his first act as president. Whereas, Romney has volumes of information on not just what he would change, but how he would change it.

I read the news so you don't have to

Welcome to another edition of "I read the news, so you don't have to!" Thanksgiving weekend is a fairly slow political news weekend, while the candidates let their staffs get some sleep, and the candidates pose for family photos. Or if you are President Obama you can catch up on college basketball.

Categorized by candidate, here are a few headlines-

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich spent Thanksgiving defending his stance on immigration. Apparently the crazy old man actually thinks we should let families stay together. An ironic position for a Republican to take on the weekend we celebrate a bunch of Europeans immigrating to a new land for a better life. He told a group in immigrant heavy and friendly Florida, "I am not for amnesty for 11 million people. I’m actually not for amnesty for anyone. I’m not for a path to citizenship for any people who are out here illegally. But I am for a path to legality for those people whose ties run so deeply in America that it would truly be a tragedy to try and rip their family apart." (Source: CNN)
He also added, "I think the vast majority [of illegal immigrants] will go home and should go home and then should reapply. I do not think anybody should be eligible for citizenship. I am suggesting a certification of legality with no right to vote and no right to become an American citizen unless they go home and apply through the regular procedures back home and get in line behind everybody else who has obeyed the law and stayed back there." (Source: MSN)

Former mathematician, minister, radio talk show host, and pizza aficianado Herman "the Hermanator" Cain, was the subject of a profile piece by MSNBC but otherwise stayed out of the limelight. Warning- reading this piece gives away all the spoilers in Mr. Cain's autobiography. He's American, he's black, and he's (mostly) conservative.

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann can be found attacking Gingrich on immigration. She called him <gasp> a "liberal" that supports amnesty for illegal aliens. She cited a letter, co-signed by Gingrich and 14 other conservatives and published in the Wall Street Journal in 2004, offering support for President George W. Bush’s proposal at the time for a guest-worker program. (For an updated point of view from Mr. Gingrich please see approximately 10 lines up.)
Because Mr. Gingrich has clearly changed (or do we consider this a more educated or clarified opinion?) his position on amnesty, I present him with this lovely golden flipflop award. Wear it proudly, Mr. Former Speaker.

Rick Santorum could not be found in any new national news stories. Sorry Mr. Santorum.

Rick Perry could be found in a few stories, but nothing that was actually interesting. The Des Moines Register did let us know that the Gov. Perry released a Thanksgiving web video. It is worth noting that Perry is trailing the front-runner (Gingrich this week) in Iowa by over 16 points, according to the latest polls.  And in case you were curious, in a national election, Obama would beat Perry by about 9%.

Jon Huntsman also failed to make the national news, but apparently he did speak to the New Hampshire House of Representatives. Or as the Manchester Union Leader reported it the "New Hampshire House or Representatives." Maybe they were just confused. 

Texas Congressman Ron Paul was also not to be found making any national headlines this weekend. But since I have been criticized for not covering Mr. Paul enough, here's a few facts about him. According to polls conducted by reputable national organizations, he is currently polling at his highest ever in Iowa at 13% (that is 9% behind the front runner, and puts him in 4th place. In national polls he is bringing his 8%, which is 15.8% behind the front runner, and at 5th place. He's not faring much better in New Hampshire or South Carolina either. However, if you take polls conducted among Christian home-schoolers in Iowa, he's in first place. (No, seriously.)

Which brings us to former Governor Mitt Romney. Romney was found in headlines all over the place thanks to the unhappiness from his first TV spot. Now before you go calling me biased for Mitt, let's review a few things. I, like so many others, absolutely agree that his TV spot was wrong, and he took Obama's quote on the economy completely out of context. I'm a little disappointed in straight arrow Mitt for that one. So let's see how his team is spinning and defending this foul ball.
In Slate.com we read, " The Romney campaign could have cared less."We want to engage the president," explained Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom in the spin room. "We look at him as our rival. It's all deliberate; it was all very intentional..." Romney adviser Ron Kaufman, an RNC committee member and longtime operative, simply said that the ad "worked."
Politico quoted Romney campaign strategist Stuart Stevens as saying, "It is now my goal for every ad we make to so upset the White House that they will force [White House Press Secretary Jay Carney] to go out with his light saber and do his thing." He also pointed out that Democrats have been more than willing to target his candidate in harsh terms. “These guys have attacked Romney in one form or another hundreds — yes, hundreds — of times over just the last few weeks,” Stevens said. “Everyone from multi-millionaire investment banker and brother to Ari, Rahm, to Wesley Clark to the legions of interns they have tweeting away as if they are trying to write Moby Dick by tweet every week.
The Washington Post story title even read, "Romney ad misleads its way to desired result." 
I have to admit, I'm a little disappointed in the Romney camp for intentionally misleading anyone (even if this ad only ran in a small media buy in New Hampshire). Isn't it just a little too soon for the smoke screens and mirrors? I expected a cleaner campaign from you, Governor. I get why you did it, I just wish you hadn't.

Who won the GOP National Security Debate last night?

GOP National Security Debate, Photo Source: NY Times (linked)

I read the news, so you don't have to!

So who won the GOP contenders National Security Debate as hosted by CNN? Let's do a quick recap of what the major media outlets are saying! (And in some cases what the different reporters at each outlet are saying.)


Washington Post's Stephen Stromberg - "Romney and Gingrich won. Romney because he is still the putative frontrunner and the likely nominee, and he did not mess up tonight. Gingrich because he held his own in the spotlight, unlike some of the previous anti-Romneys in this primary campaign. Otherwise, Perry still looked tired, Bachmann still sounded kooky, Huntsman was still too moderate, Ron Paul was still Ron Paul, and Cain still gave no sense he belonged on stage, even among this cast of characters."

Washington Post's Jonathon Bernstein - "I don’t think Gingrich has any plausible chance of winning the nomination... Beyond that, I agree with what seemed to be the Twitter consensus during the debate that Mitt Romney wasn’t doing especially well. He didn’t offer much to convince reluctant Republicans to resign themselves to him, but he didn’t do much to hurt himself, either. Given that he’s well in the lead, that’s probably an acceptable enough outcome for him. I do think that Perry continues to improve."

Washington Post's  Jennifer Rubin- "Both Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) and Jon Huntsman were predictably buffoonish, calling for pullout from Afghanistan, cuts in the military and other positions far to the left of the Obama administration. To sum up, then, the winners tonight: Romney, Bachmann, Romney, AEI and Heritage, and Wolf Blitzer. The losers: Cain, Huntsman, Paul. Potential problems: Gingrich on immigration."

Todd Graham for CNN - "Knowing your arguments and facts is one way to gain credibility. Mitt Romney fattened his credibility bank account at the expense of Rick Perry, who supported a no fly zone over Syria."
"on Huntsman made a similar deposit when he stated that sanctions on Iran would not work since "the Chinese aren't going to play ball and the Russians aren't going to play ball," and Iran has already decided to go nuclear."
"Another way to maintain credibility is to cite proof for your arguments. Michele Bachmann has said things in previous debates (President Obama wants Medicare to collapse) and in last night's debate (suggesting that the CIA cannot interrogate terrorist suspects any longer because the ACLU is in charge) that were not very credible. These frequent ATM withdrawals hurt Bachmann because a lack of believability spills over."
"Bachmann called Pakistan "too nuclear to fail," and chastised Perry for being naïve when he said he would not give Pakistan one penny until it proved it had America's best interests in mind."  (her naivety accusation was truly a highlight of the evening - in my humble opinion)
"Ron Paul is an enigma. He can provide such thoughtful answers at one time and later interject completely unsubstantiated statements."
"Answering questions with non-answers simply isn't credible. For example, Herman Cain twice last night reached into a very old bag of tricks to answer questions with the standard "I'd consult the experts" line."
"Finally, to save credibility, you should be prepared to defend your position when giving a potentially unpopular answer. Newt Gingrich had two answers that the conservative wing of his party might not like, but he defended them well."

GOP 2012 Nomination Race Polls Nov 14, 2012

SOURCE: Real Clear Politics
(Click images to enlarge)

The polls released today may not look like they are showing any significant losses for Herman Cain after last week's sex scandal allegations until you look at the CBS News polls from the week prior- (but first, do you see that huge Perry blue line nosedive? OUCH!)

In the week of 11/6-11/10 Cain is polling at 18. In the week of 1019-10/24 he had a 4 point lead over Romney at 25. A 7 point loss is fairly significant.

It is also worthwhile to note that Romney did not gain those 7 points from Cain. Romney also went down 6 points in that time. The 13 points lost between the leaders appear to have been spread out fairly equally among the other candidates, but with 5 of the points going to Gingrich. It is significant to note that these polling numbers would have been taken before Perry's huge gaffe at the debates. Or maybe this is just an indication that the debates really don't impact voters' opinions as much as the media likes to think they do? Or maybe we just really learn from this that the CBS polls and debates are biased?