You say you want a revolution?

While nobody was looking, Rep. Ron Paul and his Paulites pulled a fast one.
It's like this. Caucuses are a funny thing. Especially in those early-on states that only wanted attention by holding their caucuses early, and then held second primaries or caucuses to redetermine who they wanted to pick after all of the other states picked. (This is also called being spineless and stupid.)
Despite the fact that former Governor Mitt Romney won Nevada with 50% way back when, and Paul only took 19% of the vote, that isn't what was reflected in the state's second, and more binding, caucus.
The Paulites have quietly been working all around the country to make sure their own people get picked as the actual delegates who get to go to Tampa for the national convention. Not every state binds their delegates to the votes of the public. Tricky, eh?
Nevada delegates are bound by the results on the first convention ballot (the one where Romney got 50%). But, thanks to the disrupt by people like Gingrich and Santorum, who refused to drop out sooner, the Paulites are hoping for a brokered convention. Because if no clear winner emerges after the first convention ballot, and there is a second vote, Nevada's delegates are not bound to their state's previous elections. They are free to vote as they please (well, not all, but most of them are). And being Paulites, they will vote for Ron Paul.
Oh and did I mention this happened in Maine as well? Romney won the Maine caucus with 2,373 votes. Paul took a VERY close second with 2,258 votes. The state has 24 delegates: 21 tied to caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates. And yet, Paul took all 15 of the state's at-large delegates.
Is this a real threat? If you ask the Paulites it is. If you look at the real numbers, Mitt Romney has 792 pledged delegates, and 49 unpledged RNC delegates, (total 841). The other three guys combined have 490. There are 966 delegates unallocated as of right now. Ron Paul, including the surreptitiously gained delegates, has 76. You have to have 1,144 to win. So even if he were to get all of the unallocated delegates available, no, he could not win. There were would have to be a massive coup and abandonment of the party for Paul's delegates to make something happen.
Likelihood of that happening?
Meh. Not likely. But don't tell the Paulites. They think they have started a r-love-ution.

Mitt Romney May Lose Maine After All (Is Ron Paul a Hypocrite?)

Ron Paul Refuses to Concede Maine (Photo Source: Info Wars)

As if the debacle in Iowa wasn't bad enough, Maine is now bungling the system too. And Ron Paul supporters are calling for blood!

Here are the facts.

Maine is a non-binding caucus state, and allows the individual caucuses within the state to vote during the course of one week (Feb 4-11). There are roughly 505 municipalities in Maine, and 420 of them caucused. However, there is a catch. Some caucuses, for whatever reason, choose to hold their event outside of that one week. Their votes do not get counted in the early non-binding caucus. So why they hold them at all, is a bit of a mystery.
On February 11, Washington County, one of the largest caucuses, was supposed to hold their meeting. But, due to an unexpected snowstorm it got canceled and rescheduled. (Really? Maine wasn't prepared for a snowstorm? Isn't that the one thing they do in Maine?) As a result, they are now outside of the allowed window, and their caucus won't be counted in the non-binding results!
Mitt Romney won the Maine caucus with 39%, just 3 percent more than Ron Paul's 36%. That was less than 200 votes between them!

Ron Paul’s campaign called the exclusion of Washington County’s results “inexplicable.” Naturally they think that because they believe they have a stronghold in Washington County. Would they be crying foul if Romney had the lead there?
“Paul performed well throughout the state, although his campaign’s stronghold of Washington County did not report today for inexplicable reasons,” according to a statement released by the campaign.
Maybe by "inexplicable reasons," they mean the fact that Maine wasn't prepared for a snow storm??
The campaign released a scathing email to supporters, using typical Paul rhetoric.
“In Washington County – where Ron Paul was incredibly strong – the caucus was delayed until next week just so the votes wouldn’t be reported by the national media today. That’s right. A prediction of 3-4 inches – that turned into nothing more than a dusting – was enough for a local GOP official to postpone the caucuses just so the results wouldn’t be reported tonight.

“Just the votes of Washington County would have been enough to put us over the top. This is an outrage. But our campaign is in this race to win, and will stay in it to the very end."
So let's get this straight, Ron Paul's camp is mad that the county so supposedly heavy in his favor, chose not to vote, citing snow- the one great export of Maine- as their reason, knowing that their votes would not count if they didn't vote that night? Did they not care enough to make the effort to brave the elements to exercise their rights to vote? Mr. Paul, I'd hardly call those "Liberty Activists!"
Here's the thing, Ron Paul didn't do well in the 2008 elections in Washington County, and only 118 votes were cast in that county at all. Even if all 118 people showed up to caucus this time, it still wouldn't be enough for Ron Paul to win! And oh yeah, this was a non-binding caucus!
Is this even a reasonable demand? Or do we even expect Ron Paul to be reasonable anymore? No? I didn't think so.
But, popular news site Politico has obtained an email from a source inside the Maine GOP that suggests there is a recount underway. But it doesn't indicate whether or not Washington County will retroactively get included in last week's results.
Maine will hold its actual state convention where it picks its delegates in early May. The Maine GOP is currently scheduled to meet on March 10 - the Saturday after Super Tuesday - when it plans to revisit the caucus results.
At this point, all of these states holding early, non-binding primaries and caucuses, are just making a mockery out of the system. They want to look important and get the attention of the candidates, so they hold the early votes, forcing the candidates to come visit. But then, by holding the more binding convention several months later, they can be duplicitous about it, and switch their state delegates over to the current front runner and likely nominee, away from who they actually chose at the beginning. Because heaven forbid your state not be in favor with the person who actually wins! That will not help the state party get help from the national party down the road!
The non-binding votes just to curry favor and attention makes a joke out of the primary system, and the republic representation system our country is founded on. And it is shocking, that of all people, Ron Paul isn't the one championing that cause! The "Liberty Activist" that he is, who chooses to live and die by the Constitution without question, should be the one forcing states to stick to their votes and elected and ratified rules and laws! Isn't that what he stands for? Well, maybe, just not when it suits him otherwise.

Go Mitt Go!

Mitt Romney wins Maine caucus (Photo Credit: E McBride, at SC election night party)

Mitt Romney won in Maine's Republican presidential caucuses today! And he won the overly-hyped CPAC straw poll.
Romney received 39% of the vote in Maine, with Ron Paul just 294 votes behind him (36%). Rick Santorum finished third, with 18 percent, and Newt Gingrich finished fourth, with 6 percent.
Maine is another beauty contest where the delegates (24 total, but 3 are dedicated, so really only 21 delegates up for grabs) are not bound by the results of the caucuses,
 Nonetheless Maine combined with winning the CPAC straw poll is an important win for Romney. (If winning the facade states of Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado, were important to Rick Santorum, winning Maine has to be important to Romney for the same reasons).
Romney won Maine in 2008 with 52% of the vote. 
More than it being an "important win" for Romney, it is a big blow for Ron Paul, who hasn't had a big win yet. This was his first big chance to win, and he had put in a lot of effort to winning in Maine (since no one else was putting in an effort). 
We now get a 17 day break before the next two big primaries in Arizona and Michigan. As of right now (with no real data to back it up, only hearsay) it is expected both states will go to Romney. Michigan being his "home" state, with deep family ties. And Arizona because it is a heavily Mormon state, and everyone assumes all Mormons vote for Romney like a bunch of lemmings.
Heaven only know what will play out in the next two weeks with contraception and the budget now becoming key issues, and there will be (another) CNN debate before the next primary day. It's almost as if CNN ran out of programming ideas and can't stop hosting debates. 

I read the news so you don't have to

A few highlights from around the political news circuit-
Rick Santorum is in some hot water for saying to CNN's John King, "I want to create every opportunity for women to be able to serve this country . . . but I do have concerns about women in front-line combat.
“I think that could be a very compromising situation, where people naturally may do things that may not be in the interest of the mission because of other types of emotions that are involved. It already happens, of course, with the camaraderie of men in combat, but I think it would be even more unique if women were in combat,” Santorum added. “And I think that’s not in the best interests of men, women or the mission.”
He's now trying to spin it as men are the one's with conflicting emotions about women. A woman next to them could distract them.  He's trying to convince everyone that he wasn't implying women are the ones who have emotions.
Will anyone believe that? Only time will tell.

Callista Gingrich (who we now know goes by Calli Lou at home, thanks to Randi Kay on CNN) will be taking on a more vocal role on her husband's campaign.  This is not surprising at all as the campaigns shift towards more social issues, and Newt is up against two very family-first candidates. Calli Lou took her first big step yesterday by introducing her husband at CPAC. For many people (most?) it was our first time to hear her voice, and really witness her style. She came across as dull, wooden, and not the warm, loving faithful wife the campaign most likely wanted to present. Calli Lou is up against two of the most easy to love women in Ann Romney and Karen Santorum. One has MS and is a breast cancer survivor, while the other is a home-schooling mother with a special needs child. Both look like the mom you wished you had. And Calli Lou, cute name or not, has a long and well-storied past to overcome with her document affair with her now husband, massive credit line at Tiffanys, etc. She would be better off to not position herself as the next First Mother, and instead take a page from Hilary Clinton's campaign playbook. Like Hilary, she has a great deal of professional and political experience of her own. She needs to play to her strengths, and not pretend she is something she is not.

It's all a numbers game- polls, delegates, and what comes next!

This Republican race is truly unprecedented. We have no historical model to follow, no pattern to expect to emerge. We have four candidates in the race, three have wins, and the fourth one is the only one who has vowed to never drop out of the race! So what happens next? The candidates start looking at the delegate numbers and the polls and weighing likelihood.

• Total Number of delegates: 2286
• Unallocated delegates: 2229
• Number of delegates needed to win: 1144

Gingrich - 25 delegates
Romney- 14
Santorum- 8
Paul - 10

Take a second look at those numbers. Ron Paul who has not won a state, has more delegates than Rick Santorum who can now claim Iowa.

Florida comes next- Jan 31- and it has 50 delegates in a winner takes all state. If you recall, Rudy Giuliani staked it all on winning FL in 2008 (which backfired on him). Five days later will be Nevada with 28 delegates in a proportional allocation state. In other words, win FL you take home 50 delegates. But in NV each candidate may take home a few delegates proportional to how many people have voted for them (which is how Paul has delegates without winning a state).

In 2008 Romney won Nevada in a landslide victory (but no one noticed as they were all focused on the bloodbath in South Carolina).

The pattern in this race has been band wagon mentality all the way. The man that has the best showing in the debate win that week's vote. There is absolutely no clear front-runner, and no one obvious path to follow yet. There are 2 debates this week, which means there are two more chances for upsets and changes.

So let's take a look at the FL numbers-

First, let's discuss the graph and not the actual numbers. Look at the green Gingrich line. He was low, he was high, he dropped, and now, as of today, he's going up again. And there's the red Cain line. Same thing- he's low, he's high, he drops. And then there is Romney with the purple line. He's fairly steady since the summer, with an uptick in the last three weeks, but a sudden fall as Gingrich jumps. Santorum and Paul have remained steady below 12% continuously.
Personally, if I was Santorum or Paul, I'd skip Florida and move on to Nevada. Why? You know you will never win Florida, and it is a winner take all state. Any time spent there is a waste of time and money where you could be elsewhere winning delegates. UNLESS, your goal is not to win the state, but to make you take away support from either Romney or Gingrich to keep them from winning.
I'll be back around later tonight to share thoughts on the debate this evening.

So now- Nevada, and then the slightly less than Super Tuesday. Nevada will holds its proportional caucus on Feb 4. There are few, if any, recent and reliable polls coming out of Nevada yet. But be looking for them to come today soon- like today or tomorrow probably. If it isn't heavily favoring Romney, consider it to be a big surprise. And if you live in Nevada, brace yourselves- the robocalls and pollsters are about to start coming. (And tell the truth to the pollsters!)

Just three days after Nevada comes the mini Super Tuesday. Colorado (36 proportional), Minnesota (40 proportional), and Missouri (52 proportional) will vote on Feb 7. Maine (24 proportional) votes over the course of a week, ending Feb 11. That's 152 proportional delegates in one week, plus the 28 proportional in Nevada. If Florida doesn't produce a clear front runner (and it won't), this race continues to be a massive battle through this first Super Tuesday. After that, the candidates can take quick naps, because the next primary day isn't for 3 more weeks, but is a much bigger Super Tuesday.

In other words, this race is far from defining a winner!