Never ask if a Republican is enthusiastic. It doesn't work that way.

Six months from tomorrow we will finally be at election day!

Will it be Mitt Romney or Barack Obama wearing the champion belt that day?

If the elections were held today, the answer would be- either Romney or Obama.

Swing states are more important than ever before. A USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 currently proclaimed swing states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, shows President Obama over Romney with 47 percent to 45 percent. 

A separate poll conducted by Politico and George Washington University found Romney and Obama statistically tied among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent—well within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.

Who do the swing state voters think would be better for the economy? (Gallup poll)

Romney 60%

Obama 52% 

(Yes, I know the numbers don't make sense written that way. Go look at the poll yourself.)

But who do people "like" more? And we don't mean like in the Facebook sense of the word. 

58% think Obama is more likable

31% think Romney is. 

Now here's a very interesting number, that all the talking heads will try to spin their own special way. And yes, I am about to spin it my own personal way too. 

Which fan base is more enthusiastic about the November election?

Obama supporters are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" - 55%

Romney supporters are only 46% that excited. 

Now please pause while I explain why this is one of the stupidest poll questions and numbers ever. In fact, it is so stupid I can't believe Gallup put it out there. What were they thinking?

You can't ask Republicans if they are enthusiastic about an election. Republicans fear elections, because they all think the world is going to hell in a hand basket. If you ask them what they think about the upcoming elections, they groan and whine and talk about the evils penetrating the earth in the form of liberal Democrats taking over the planet. So no, they are not enthusiastic. They are terrified. Personally, I can't believe so many of them did say they are excited. It's just so un-Republican of them.

You say you want a revolution?

While nobody was looking, Rep. Ron Paul and his Paulites pulled a fast one.
It's like this. Caucuses are a funny thing. Especially in those early-on states that only wanted attention by holding their caucuses early, and then held second primaries or caucuses to redetermine who they wanted to pick after all of the other states picked. (This is also called being spineless and stupid.)
Despite the fact that former Governor Mitt Romney won Nevada with 50% way back when, and Paul only took 19% of the vote, that isn't what was reflected in the state's second, and more binding, caucus.
The Paulites have quietly been working all around the country to make sure their own people get picked as the actual delegates who get to go to Tampa for the national convention. Not every state binds their delegates to the votes of the public. Tricky, eh?
Nevada delegates are bound by the results on the first convention ballot (the one where Romney got 50%). But, thanks to the disrupt by people like Gingrich and Santorum, who refused to drop out sooner, the Paulites are hoping for a brokered convention. Because if no clear winner emerges after the first convention ballot, and there is a second vote, Nevada's delegates are not bound to their state's previous elections. They are free to vote as they please (well, not all, but most of them are). And being Paulites, they will vote for Ron Paul.
Oh and did I mention this happened in Maine as well? Romney won the Maine caucus with 2,373 votes. Paul took a VERY close second with 2,258 votes. The state has 24 delegates: 21 tied to caucuses, 3 unpledged RNC delegates. And yet, Paul took all 15 of the state's at-large delegates.
Is this a real threat? If you ask the Paulites it is. If you look at the real numbers, Mitt Romney has 792 pledged delegates, and 49 unpledged RNC delegates, (total 841). The other three guys combined have 490. There are 966 delegates unallocated as of right now. Ron Paul, including the surreptitiously gained delegates, has 76. You have to have 1,144 to win. So even if he were to get all of the unallocated delegates available, no, he could not win. There were would have to be a massive coup and abandonment of the party for Paul's delegates to make something happen.
Likelihood of that happening?
Meh. Not likely. But don't tell the Paulites. They think they have started a r-love-ution.

It's Not a Party Without Donald Trump. It's Not the Media Without a Circus.

The Donald at a GOP/Tea Party Event in June 2011, Photo Credit: E. McBride

Yesterday, without question, Mitt Romney made a mistake.

It was a stupid mistake, a simple case of a misplaced pause as he was speaking, and a poorly phrased sentence in a live interview.

By now we all know what he said (but I'll repeat it here for future reference when in a few weeks we can't remember what the hullabaloo was all about today)-

"I'm not concerned about the very poor. We have a safety net there. If it needs repair, I'll fix it. I'm not concerned about the very rich; they're doing just fine. I'm concerned about the very heart of America, the 90%, 95% of Americans right now who are struggling, and I'll continue to take that message across the nation."

Unfortunately he made an unfortunate pause after he said, "I'm not concerned about the very poor." It instantly skyrocketed into the headlines- but not really.

It's all a numbers game- polls, delegates, and what comes next!

This Republican race is truly unprecedented. We have no historical model to follow, no pattern to expect to emerge. We have four candidates in the race, three have wins, and the fourth one is the only one who has vowed to never drop out of the race! So what happens next? The candidates start looking at the delegate numbers and the polls and weighing likelihood.

• Total Number of delegates: 2286
• Unallocated delegates: 2229
• Number of delegates needed to win: 1144

Gingrich - 25 delegates
Romney- 14
Santorum- 8
Paul - 10

Take a second look at those numbers. Ron Paul who has not won a state, has more delegates than Rick Santorum who can now claim Iowa.

Florida comes next- Jan 31- and it has 50 delegates in a winner takes all state. If you recall, Rudy Giuliani staked it all on winning FL in 2008 (which backfired on him). Five days later will be Nevada with 28 delegates in a proportional allocation state. In other words, win FL you take home 50 delegates. But in NV each candidate may take home a few delegates proportional to how many people have voted for them (which is how Paul has delegates without winning a state).

In 2008 Romney won Nevada in a landslide victory (but no one noticed as they were all focused on the bloodbath in South Carolina).

The pattern in this race has been band wagon mentality all the way. The man that has the best showing in the debate win that week's vote. There is absolutely no clear front-runner, and no one obvious path to follow yet. There are 2 debates this week, which means there are two more chances for upsets and changes.

So let's take a look at the FL numbers-

First, let's discuss the graph and not the actual numbers. Look at the green Gingrich line. He was low, he was high, he dropped, and now, as of today, he's going up again. And there's the red Cain line. Same thing- he's low, he's high, he drops. And then there is Romney with the purple line. He's fairly steady since the summer, with an uptick in the last three weeks, but a sudden fall as Gingrich jumps. Santorum and Paul have remained steady below 12% continuously.
Personally, if I was Santorum or Paul, I'd skip Florida and move on to Nevada. Why? You know you will never win Florida, and it is a winner take all state. Any time spent there is a waste of time and money where you could be elsewhere winning delegates. UNLESS, your goal is not to win the state, but to make you take away support from either Romney or Gingrich to keep them from winning.
I'll be back around later tonight to share thoughts on the debate this evening.

So now- Nevada, and then the slightly less than Super Tuesday. Nevada will holds its proportional caucus on Feb 4. There are few, if any, recent and reliable polls coming out of Nevada yet. But be looking for them to come today soon- like today or tomorrow probably. If it isn't heavily favoring Romney, consider it to be a big surprise. And if you live in Nevada, brace yourselves- the robocalls and pollsters are about to start coming. (And tell the truth to the pollsters!)

Just three days after Nevada comes the mini Super Tuesday. Colorado (36 proportional), Minnesota (40 proportional), and Missouri (52 proportional) will vote on Feb 7. Maine (24 proportional) votes over the course of a week, ending Feb 11. That's 152 proportional delegates in one week, plus the 28 proportional in Nevada. If Florida doesn't produce a clear front runner (and it won't), this race continues to be a massive battle through this first Super Tuesday. After that, the candidates can take quick naps, because the next primary day isn't for 3 more weeks, but is a much bigger Super Tuesday.

In other words, this race is far from defining a winner!