The Smarter You Are, the Less Likely You Are to Vote for Trump (I have proof!)

I never thought I'd say coming in second, and even third place, is a great victory, but for ‪#‎TeamMarco‬, it is. I'm thrilled with his results tonight. 
Something very interesting to note about the VA returns. Rubio won Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun, Harrisonburg, Lynchburg, Prince William, Fredericksburg City (but not Spotsy), Henrico, Richmond, Goochland, Radford, Albemarle, Chesterfield, James City, Winchester, and York counties. Notice anything interesting about those counties?
Let's reword it like this instead-
He won the homes of GMU, UVA, William and Mary, JMU, Patrick Henry College, Mary Washington U, Liberty University, Radford, VCU, Shenandoah Conservatory, Christendom College, and U of Richmond. (Not listed in same order as the counties.)  Not to mention all of the people who live in NoVA, but attend GWU, GU, and JHU, or are known for having post-graduate degrees.
Also known as the most affluent and educated counties in the state. Apparently, the smarter you are, the more likely you are to not vote for Trump!
It's interesting to also note that in Montgomery County, home of VA Tech, Rubio lost to Trump by a mere 29 votes. So we can sort of pretend that county followed suit too. (And after the final tallies have been truly certified, that number could possibly tip in Rubio's favor.)
(I'm a little disappointed that Rubio lost by nearly 1,000 in Roanoke County. However, he only lost by 200 in Roanoke City. Cruz had a stronger showing overall in the county than in most areas in the state.)
I applied my education theory to a few other states that I have some knowledge of as far as major universities go. It holds up in GA, NH, AR, SC, and IA. It didn't hold up in Massachusetts. I tried to apply it to AL, but the data was inconclusive and skewed due to a tornado touchdown in the specific counties I was interested in. And admittedly, I know nothing about Minnesota universities or counties. Texas went overwhelmingly for Cruz. 6 counties went to Trump. Notably, not one has a major educational institution in it. (Which is saying something. Texas has universities and colleges every 10 feet!) My knowledge of OK was also too limited, but I did see that at least in 1 of the 2 Rubio counties, there was a major state university!
So apparently the smarter you are, the less likely you are to vote for Trump! And now we have proof! 

California, Here I Come

Californians go to the polls today to vote on a cigarette tax increase, and a few other things.

CIGARETTE TAX: Proposition 29 is on the ballot in California. It proposes to raise the state cigarette tax by $1 a pack. Currently the tax is $0.87 a pack, the proposition would raise it to $1.87. The state says the revenue from the tax would go to cancer and other tobacco-related diseases, along with prevention and education programs. Lots of states have cigarette or "sin" taxes. However, this one is unusual because the people are voting on it in a referendum style. Most states would pass it in the state legislature.
I may be against cigarette smoking in general, but I would never support a sin tax. A tax is a tax, "sin" or not.



OPEN PRIMARY: Also shaking up the status quo today, California  is holding a new open primary with all candidates appearing on a single ballot. The top two vote-getters go on to the general election. Normally, and in all other locations I've ever heard of,  people voted in party primaries that sent only one Republican and one Democrat to the general election. The results and consequences of this primary should be interesting to watch.

Surprises in Kentucky and Arkansas Primaries for Democrats

Just when you thought the primaries were just a formality and didn't matter anymore, something interesting happens.
President Obama didn't have an opponent in Kentucky, so you would except him to win by a fairly large margin, right? But no! Instead, he only took 57.9% of the vote. Everyone else was "uncommitted."  And that was how his own party felt about him!
And he didn't do much better in Arkansas either. With 70% of the votes in, he only had 59% of the vote. He did face a challenger in Arkansas. A man named John Wolfe, an attorney from Tennessee whose platform includes repealing “Obamacare.” Wolfe took 41% of the vote and was able to win several counties.
Mitt Romney did slightly better in his own primaries, but not much better. He took 67% of the vote in Kentucky, (Ron Paul took 13%), and 69% in Arkansas. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum each took 13%. Even Newt Gingrich did better in Arkansas than he did in many states when he was actively campaigning. He got 5% of the vote.

What does this mean for November? 

Obama has had a difficult time winning even the Democrats in the more conservative states. (Let's not forget the 43% of Democrats in West Virginia who voted for the currently imprisoned felon over the POTUS.) He only took 30% of the primary in Kentucky in 2008, and 26% of Arkansas in 2008. But overall, this probably doesn't mean anything for November. Obama was never going to win those two states, and now we have more proof to support that theory. 

But here's the catch- Kentucky is historically a blue state. So why don't they like Obama more? The Washington Post's The Fix addresses that question today with "Is it racism?" The article is worth a read. 

All Eyes on Super Tuesday

Upcoming Republican Primaries-

Saturday, March 3- 
Washington State, 43 delegates, proportional
Latest poll 2/19, Santorum 38%, Romney 27%, Paul 15%, Gingrich 12%

"Super Tuesday," March 6-
Alaska- 27 delegates, proportional (caucus)

Georgia- 76 delegates, proportional
Latest poll 2/26, Gingrich 34%, Santorum 25%, Romney 21.5%, Paul 8.8%

Idaho- 32 delegates, proportional (caucus)

Massachusetts- 41 delegates, proportional

North Dakota- 28 delegates, proportional

Ohio- 66 delegates, proportional
Latest poll 2/26- Santorum 37%, Romney 26%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%
Noteworthy, Santorum has only had the lead in Ohio for 2 weeks. At the end of January he had less than 10%. Romney has maintained about 20-25% there consistently for several months.

Oklahoma- 43 delegates, proportional

Tennessee- 58 delegates, proportional

Vermont- 17 delegates, proportional

Virginia- 49 delegates, proportional
Only Romney and Paul are on the VA ballot, because the other two candidates failed to meet requirements. Romney leads currently with 53%, Paul 23%. Write-in votes are not allowed.

Saturday, March 10-
Guam- 9 delegates, proportional

Kansas- 40 delegates, proportional

Northern Mariana- 9 delegates, proportional

Virgin Islands- 9 delegates, proportional

Wyoming- 29, proportional (ongoing now-March 10)

That is 576 delegates up for grabs over the next 10 days!
 

It's all a numbers game- polls, delegates, and what comes next!

This Republican race is truly unprecedented. We have no historical model to follow, no pattern to expect to emerge. We have four candidates in the race, three have wins, and the fourth one is the only one who has vowed to never drop out of the race! So what happens next? The candidates start looking at the delegate numbers and the polls and weighing likelihood.

• Total Number of delegates: 2286
• Unallocated delegates: 2229
• Number of delegates needed to win: 1144

Gingrich - 25 delegates
Romney- 14
Santorum- 8
Paul - 10

Take a second look at those numbers. Ron Paul who has not won a state, has more delegates than Rick Santorum who can now claim Iowa.

Florida comes next- Jan 31- and it has 50 delegates in a winner takes all state. If you recall, Rudy Giuliani staked it all on winning FL in 2008 (which backfired on him). Five days later will be Nevada with 28 delegates in a proportional allocation state. In other words, win FL you take home 50 delegates. But in NV each candidate may take home a few delegates proportional to how many people have voted for them (which is how Paul has delegates without winning a state).

In 2008 Romney won Nevada in a landslide victory (but no one noticed as they were all focused on the bloodbath in South Carolina).

The pattern in this race has been band wagon mentality all the way. The man that has the best showing in the debate win that week's vote. There is absolutely no clear front-runner, and no one obvious path to follow yet. There are 2 debates this week, which means there are two more chances for upsets and changes.

So let's take a look at the FL numbers-

First, let's discuss the graph and not the actual numbers. Look at the green Gingrich line. He was low, he was high, he dropped, and now, as of today, he's going up again. And there's the red Cain line. Same thing- he's low, he's high, he drops. And then there is Romney with the purple line. He's fairly steady since the summer, with an uptick in the last three weeks, but a sudden fall as Gingrich jumps. Santorum and Paul have remained steady below 12% continuously.
Personally, if I was Santorum or Paul, I'd skip Florida and move on to Nevada. Why? You know you will never win Florida, and it is a winner take all state. Any time spent there is a waste of time and money where you could be elsewhere winning delegates. UNLESS, your goal is not to win the state, but to make you take away support from either Romney or Gingrich to keep them from winning.
I'll be back around later tonight to share thoughts on the debate this evening.

So now- Nevada, and then the slightly less than Super Tuesday. Nevada will holds its proportional caucus on Feb 4. There are few, if any, recent and reliable polls coming out of Nevada yet. But be looking for them to come today soon- like today or tomorrow probably. If it isn't heavily favoring Romney, consider it to be a big surprise. And if you live in Nevada, brace yourselves- the robocalls and pollsters are about to start coming. (And tell the truth to the pollsters!)

Just three days after Nevada comes the mini Super Tuesday. Colorado (36 proportional), Minnesota (40 proportional), and Missouri (52 proportional) will vote on Feb 7. Maine (24 proportional) votes over the course of a week, ending Feb 11. That's 152 proportional delegates in one week, plus the 28 proportional in Nevada. If Florida doesn't produce a clear front runner (and it won't), this race continues to be a massive battle through this first Super Tuesday. After that, the candidates can take quick naps, because the next primary day isn't for 3 more weeks, but is a much bigger Super Tuesday.

In other words, this race is far from defining a winner!

Gingrich and Perry Fail to Qualify for Virginia Primary Ballot

"I'm a Newt" "I'm a chipmunk!" (Linked to source: Salon.com)

Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry have failed to gather and submit the required 10,000 minimum signatures from registered voters in Virginia in order to make the primary ballot in March, according to the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV).The ballot will now only be Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. (Huntsman, Bachmann, and Santorum did not submit petitions.)

Gingrich did have a slight lead in Virginia over Mitt Romney in the Commonwealth, according to a Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday morning. Gingrich has 30 percent and Romney has 25 percent among VA Republican voters.

Instead of admitting he failed to gather enough signatures (his campaign was seen still gathering signatures outside of an event in Richmond on Thursday), Newt Gingrich's campaign criticized the process. "Only a failed system excludes four out of the six major candidates seeking access to the ballot. Voters deserve the right to vote for any top contender, especially leading candidates. We will work with the Republican Party of Virginia to pursue an aggressive write-in campaign to make sure that all the voters of Virginia are able to vote for the candidate of their choice.”

Way to endear yourself to the Republican Party of Virginia (RPV), Mr. Speaker. It's not like you haven't known for months that this was coming!  I wonder if when he's a visiting professor if he allows students to use that same excuse? "Professor, I've known for months that this was coming. But I think the system is wrong. Asking me to do homework in every class is too much. I'm going to start an aggressive write-in campaign from my parents and all my friends making sure I get to pass!" 

Weak sauce.

Does South Carolina really produce the nominee 100% of the time?

South Carolina likes to pride itself on its "first in the South" status in the presidential primaries. And even likes to brag a little bit that they choose the candidate that goes on to be the nominee six out of the last six times. Is South Carolina really that in tune with the nation as a whole? Or is there a better explanation?

Let's look at their past results-

2008- John McCain won with 33% on January 19, where they and Nevada were the fourth and fifth states to hold primaries. It was the second state for McCain to win (he also took NH), and he was definitely not the frontrunner yet.

2004- George W Bush incumbent year

2000- George W. Bush won with 53% on February 19, and was 5th to hold a primary. He had already won in three other states by large margins.

1996- Bob Dole won with 45% on March 2, as the 9th to hold a primary or caucus. It was only the third state for him to win. But that was a "Super Tuesday" week where Dole won 11 more states over the next 4 days.

1992- George H.W. Bush won with 67% as a contested incumbent.