Goodbye SC, Hello Florida

Well, South Carolina, it has been one wild week. When we arrived there were 6 men in the race, and Romney was headed for a virtual coronation. Today as we leave, there are 4 men in the race, Gingrich has surged, Iowa recounts and recants, and this picture of Mitt and Ann Romney doing their own laundry made my whole week.
We worked our tails off this week. I don't regret one second of it. We saw some amazing hard work by volunteers who paid a lot of money to travel here, taking off work, and leaving families behind, to get involved in a cause they believe in. I saw dozens of volunteers willingly going out into the rain and wind (tornado warnings!!) to hand out literature, knock doors, and shake signs yesterday. That takes real dedication and passion! Amazing!
The team of people who work behind the scenes to organize events, get bodies out to the events, work the press phones, and so much more are incredible. They spend weeks on the road, living in hotels, working 14-16 hour days, barely even having time to eat, keeping their spirits and energy high, all to work for the cause. It really is a unique and impressive thing to be a part of.
I'm so grateful for the opportunity to be a little piece of the big picture this past week. All of the work and exhaustion was totally worth it, even if we didn't win. But we got the message out there and we still have 47 more states to get through. And you just might see me pop up in another key state soon... I've caught the campaign bug!

Campaign Life

Last night was just plain awesome. I got to go to Charleston for the CNN debate, and be in the room live. It was so interesting to see things in person. Here's a few thoughts about how it was different in person.
First, if you have never been to a live televised event, you probably don't know there's a producer running around, telling the audience when to applaud, when to applaud louder, when to be back in their seats, etc. When the room is clapping so loud that you can't hear John King open the show? There's a producer frantically waving, telling the audience to clap louder and louder.
The biggest news making moment out of the debate was the very first opening question, directed at Newt Gingrich about his ex-wife's allegations. It is true that Newt's first nasty jab at John King where he said he was appalled that he would start off a presidential debate that way, and went on to use those ever popular words "liberal elite media." That comment got a standing ovation. I won't lie. I even applauded loudly. We're Republicans! That's what we do! We applaud when people say bad things about the liberal elite media! But NO ONE was applauding in support for Newt dodging the issues about cheating on his wife. Newt did a fantastic job of flipping the situation into something else. Good for him. But it doesn't change the fact that he's a lying, cheating bastard.
Next, CNN bringing out Herman Cain this morning to talk about the situation? Are you kidding me? You bring out the womanizer the GOP ran out of town to talk about Newt?? Yeah, I don't think so!
Today (Friday) was my first 19 hour work day in a very long time. I'm exhausted! But in less than 24 hours it will all be over. Today was incredible, and I loved every second of it. We had 180 volunteers come from around the country and the state, to help Get Out The Vote (GOTV). They would walk in the door, and we'd give them a job, flip them around, and send them off to do the good work. We had them going door to door, making GOTV calls, attending rallies, and more. It was a crazy day trying to manage that many people. Plus in the late afternoon I got a call saying I needed to get up to Greenville and bring materials. I dropped everything to drive the 100 miles up there, and attended a rally while I was there.
Tomorrow will be even bigger and crazier. Rallies, voting, and more. I can't wait. I really need to go to bed.
Pictures coming soon!

Tales from the Campaign Trail

You probably thought I would have more exciting stories to tell from the campaign trail. But the truth is, I'm so busy, there isn't much time to devote to blogging, taking pictures, or even breathing sometimes. I was working by 7:30 am today and although it is after midnight and I'm back in my hotel room (I left the office just before 11), I'm not sure I've stopped working. Being busy is a great, great thing. My biggest challenge is just keeping up with all of the RSVPs that keep rolling in. We had over 1500 people attend events today! And we have a few more huge events this week still left to go.
Tomorrow night is the big CNN debate in Charleston. (And I'm officially on the list and allowed to go- CNN Security emailed me to say so today!) That will, of course, be huge. And it has potential to be a game changer. The latest polls, out today by CNN, show Romney slipped 5 points, and Gingrich gained 5. They are within 10 points of each other now. That is a scary thing from our point of view. We had a 19 point lead and we're down to 10. And these primaries have been the complete definition of bandwagon politics. If that momentum stays through Saturday, we will all be in for the fight of our lives.
It could also all hinge on what happens in the ABC "expose" of Newt's former wife. If that shows before the debate, Newt could be in for some trouble. But if you were ABC, you would want to run it against the debate to steal some thunder and ratings.
You may think that campaign life is all about politics. That isn't true. In fact, there is hardly time to really discuss actual politics. "Real politics" isn't discussing and debating the issues. It is all about answering phones, stuffing envelopes, making calls, knocking on doors, making sure the signs get to the event, making sure there is someone to pick up the VIP at the airport, listening to senile callers rant and rave about who knows what, handling press requests, and all the work that goes on behind the scenes. It isn't about chewing the fat and pontificating over the finer points of the opponent's health care plan, or which candidate has released his taxes. In fact, if you have time to talk about all that, then you probably aren't working.
That being said, it is after midnight and I'm getting emails in still regarding volunteer assignments, RSVPs tomorrow, and more, that I need to answer before falling asleep. And I need to be back at the office in less than 8 hours.
Campaign life- not for the faint of heart!

Tales from the Trail Days 3 and 4

If you were looking for a recap of the debates yesterday, here you go-
Never have I ever been more livid and angry at a GOP candidate than when Newt Gingrich had the audacity to say that he thinks the unemployed 99ers aren't suffering from a lack of jobs, but are suffering from poor skills and need more education. I have been unemployed for the better part of the past 2 years. I fall into the 99ers category. I have sent out hundreds and hundreds of resumes. I have interviewed at dozens of companies. I have been fortunate to get enough freelance work to survive these past two years, in spite of how very precious little I got on unemployment. I have great skills. I have companies I used to work for coming to me and asking me to help them. They don't have the money to hire me! The completely out of touch and ridiculous statement that 99ers need to get more education and better skills, and less assistance, made by Gingrich had me screaming at the television (and on Twitter). And explain to me, exactly how is someone who hasn't had an income in 2 years supposed to afford more education?? The problem is the economy. NOT the overqualified, skilled citizens who were laid off!
As for life on the campaign trail-
I have worked on a few campaigns. I'm no stranger to politics. I have never seen a better run campaign than the Romney campaign. It is truly incredible to see how well organized and executed this high speed campaign runs. There is a staff member dedicated to getting endorsements across the state. There are regional press secretaries, precinct captains, advance teams, and more. We're not sitting in the office stuffing envelopes. The phones ring off the hook, literally over one hundred calls an hour, if not more. (I bet you the other campaigns don't have that problem!) No two days have been the same so far. And I doubt any two days will repeat in the future. Today I assumed a role of mostly overseeing the other volunteers, keeping them busy with projects, while trying to keep up with my own projects as well. We were in the office for more than 14 hours today! It is great to be so busy that you don't even look up and realize you missed lunch until after 4 pm!
We have over 300 volunteers we're assigning out over the state this weekend, and we're doing the prep work for that now. (I came down in advance to help prep.) I've never been on a campaign before where we had so many volunteers just coming out of the woodwork to help out. It really is energizing and exciting to be on a winning campaign.
As you know, I'm from Virginia and I traveled to South Carolina to help. I am not alone in this! Today in our office we had 8 different volunteers who had driven or flown in from other states to help out full time for the week. Can you imagine being so passionate that you would get in your car and drive from Texas (his home) to Iowa, to New Hampshire, to South Carolina, and he plans to go on to Florida next week? We have a volunteer who is doing just that. And no, he's not rich or wealthy with time to kill. It is the opposite actually! Like me, he's unemployed and wants to make a difference with his free time. He was sleeping in his car, showering at the Y, and working some very long days! (When we heard he was sleeping in his car, we found him another volunteer to share a hotel room with. I think he's enjoying having a full sized bed again.) And he does it all because he believes in the cause.
We have so many great volunteers making things work for us right now. We had a great woman come in for several hours today, and with her she brought homemade coffee cake that was the best I have ever had. She brought in juice, clementines, milk, and more. And at lunch time she took orders and went to the (gay bar) cafe across the street to get food for us. I mentioned Ruth yesterday- the woman that Governor Romney gave some money to at an event. She has been coming to the office to keep us updated and to volunteer. Today we told her we had seen her story in the news. She asked which paper. I told her I didn't see the paper, I saw it on CNN, ABC, and Fox. She said, "Fox who?" She doesn't have a TV or internet at her home, and had no idea she had been a story in every single major news outlet. Well, she did have some clue, because she told me her phone was ringing so much she finally took it off the hook. She couldn't take it anymore, so she came to our office to help out. And would you believe the woman making national news stories picked up a bottle of windex and cleaned all of our windows, before she swept the floors, and cleaned the toilet? When she saw the coffee cake and treats in our little kitchen, she loudly yelled, "Oh Praise Jesus! I haven't eaten!" She didn't have any money, and has no food. We happily sent her home with a few items. And she said she'll be back to help tomorrow. I look forward to putting her to work on something a little more exciting than sweeping the floors.

Day 2 Campaign Life

Sunday, Day 2
Campaign life doesn't stop just because it is Sunday, especially with a week left to the state primary. It was another busy crazy day in the HQ. The phone never stopped ringing. I would guess we had over 500-600 phone calls from 1pm-8pm. There are a lot of very supportive and happy people calling to just say they are on our side. And there are a lot of angry people calling to complain about the automated calls they are getting. I don't blame them. Nobody likes getting them. But that doesn't give them the right or reason to say the incredibly nasty things they will say at times. But the good phone calls make up for it.
An interesting story is unfolding in the office. A woman named Ruth is suddenly finding herself in an unexpected spotlight with her story popping up all across the national political news. On Wednesday she was praying for help to make ends meet financially. She was driving her car, pulled over and said a prayer, and then saw the Romney campaign bus, and followed it. She met Governor Romney, told him her story, about being unemployed, a mentally handicapped son, raising her grandchild, and more. He reached into his wallet and gave her what cash he had on him. Another campaign staffer spoke with her, and paid her electric bill for her. Since then she has come by the office a few times to help out and give back. She came by today to say hello, tell us how grateful she is, and that the media keeps calling her. She told us that one major outlet will be sending a limo to take her out tomorrow. To do what? She did not know. But she promised to come back and tell us what happened. Her story is truly legit, and she's truly humble and kind. I hope she's able to find work and help soon.
The big news today came in at 10pm just as we were wrapping up in the office. We found out via Twitter that Jon Huntsman will be dropping out of the race tomorrow, and will be endorsing Mitt. (Gotta love when Twitter breaks news!)
It is always interesting how quickly candidates flip from attacking each other to endorsing each other. This is just another perfect example of it. Last week in the NH debates and the Meet the Press debate, Huntsman came after Romney with both barrels blazing. Sometimes it can be easy to forget we are all on the same side, and that primary campaigns should not be a grown up version of "Lord of the Flies." Huntsman was an aggressive opponent, but never threw mud. However, there are times when it feels like Gingrich has gone completely primal and isn't throwing mud, and has resorted to throwing feces.
Why Huntsman would drop out this close to Saturday is a matter I can barely speak to. It was suggested by someone on Twitter that getting out now and endorsing Mitt would help him lock up a cabinet position if Mitt wins overall. It was only a matter of minutes before the other volunteers in the office started speculating about Huntsman as a Secretary of State. (Let it be known loud and clear- no one in that conversation has any clout or pull over such decisions.) Huntsman definitely has the credentials for a SecState position, but the idea that an LDS president would also have an LDS SecState is pretty far fetched. I can't see it happening.
The polls are still projecting a Romney win on Saturday. But we do see how close Gingrich in on our heels. It is only a 4-7 point lead, and that means we have to work hard this week! I'm excited for the loads of volunteers to show up this week!

South Carolina Campaign Trail

My first day on the campaign trail-
Even at 5pm on a Saturday the phone was ringing like crazy. I just jumped right in and started answering the phone. No script, no idea what I was doing. Just picked it up and went for it. The first thing I learned? "Somebody" sent out a letter from a gun owners group saying Romney is anti-gun. Thing is, he is pro-gun. So lots of angry callers calling to complain that he's anti-gun. We got a copy of the letter finally, and apparently of the 6 candidates it claims only Ron Paul is pro-gun. Hmm... I wonder who paid for that mailing?
And only a few hundred callers calling to say "this number showed up on my caller ID, who is this?"
Somewhere in the middle of the 200 calls I answered in under 3 hours, a radio show called me. I won't say their name, but you can find them here. First, I'm glad I actually grabbed that call. I was missing more calls than I was able to catch because the phones were so crazy. It would have looked bad if they had called and it went to voice mail. But then, they really weren't looking to do a fair or honest interview. They were calling a state office, and didn't ask to speak to an official spokesperson. (Real professionals would have called the national hq and asked for a press person.) I pulled their website up while speaking to them, and very quickly realized they were going to try anything they could to make Romney look bad. They also never told me whether or not we were on the air. Nonetheless, I just rolled through the punches. Lots of questions about, "Is it true Mormons think..." "Do you think a Mormon can be trusted in the..." Things like that. Nothing actually about what Romney stands for politically. Somewhere in there I messed up and said, "We believe," instead of "He believes." Oops. Next thing you know, I'm getting hit with the Mormon questions. Whatever. I think I handled it well. And got the approval of everyone within earshot when I hung up. It's always fun to be back in the hot seat. But then, considering their website looks straight out of 1999, I'm not too concerned.
We have truckloads of volunteers coming down this week. Things are looking really good. Romney has a huge lead down here, and everyone else is so busy attacking Romney that they are forgetting to make themselves look good.
I'm looking forward to getting back to work in the morning and trying some real BBQ soon!

Greetings from South Carolina

Greetings from South Carolina! After the big win for Mitt Romney in New Hampshire this week I got a call asking me if I wanted to drop everything and go to South Carolina to put my campaigning background to work. I will be at the Romney State HQ for the next week. I look forward to bringing you some campaign insights from the inside. Got any questions about real campaign life? Leave me a comment and I'll try to answer them!

Romney Wins New Hampshire, Now What?

South Carolina County Map

So Mitt won New Hampshire. Now what? 
Despite winning in nearly every group of voters (including winning across the conservatives) the fight isn't over. The race is going in Romney's favor, but is not yet a done deal. And nor should it be! The democratic and primary system was not set up so that two fairly small states could have more power than the other 48!
We're already seeing a shift in strategies. Newt "High Road" Gingrich has abandoned all pretenses of pretending to play nice with no negative strategies. He has come out both barrels blazing to attack Romney in a self-described 'Armageddon.' (Now who's the flip-flopper?)Asked about the negative ads from the Gingrich camp, Romney told Boston radio station WRKO on Tuesday that they "will not help" his rival.
"All I have got to do is keep my head down, keep talking about my message of getting America back to work, my experience in having led two businesses successfully, the Olympics successfully," Romney said.
Of course, Gingrich isn't alone in the attacks. Everybody and their brother's PAC are "on the hunt." This looks to be the fight of Romney's political life to not just survive South Carolina, but succeed in it. It is shaping up to be a bloodbath.
The absolute most current poll data released (taken yesterday) has Romney only leading Gingrich by 2 points in South Carolina (Insider Advantage). And that is from a poll taken after the NH victory. However, polls taken earlier in the week have him with as much as an 18 point lead. But again the fight for third place will be very significant. Paul and Santorum are neck and neck there, and both absolutely need to be to take third to be considered viable. And if Perry ends up in last place, there will be little reason for him to proceed to Florida. Huntsman can take last place and still go on to Florida because he had a strong enough showing in NH.
The difference between Perry and Huntsman right now comes down to having enough money to go forward, but more importantly delegates. Perry skipped New Hampshire, and Huntsman skipped Iowa. But Perry had a lousy showing in Iowa. So he's 0 for 2 right now. Huntsman is 1 for 2. Huntsman can afford another hit. But Perry really cannot. Florida and South Carolina primaries are close enough together that a candidate could financially stay in. But considering both men are polling with less than 5% in Florida, there wouldn't be much of a reason to proceed.
There will be another poll next Thursday night in South Carolina (hosted by CNN). Considering how well Huntsman performed last Saturday in the New Hampshire debate, and how that really seemed to give him a bump up in the primary, this will be key to his success.
It is also very important to realize that Ron Paul is a serious threat right now. He has the money to keep going on for several more states. And if he continues to come in second or third everywhere, collecting delegates as he goes, he alone could really draw things out. (And there is nothing he or his supporters would love more than to really draw things out.) I've looked back over the polling data before and after the debates. His numbers don't move at all. Debates don't seem to help or hurt him like they do the other candidates. He only has 11% in South Carolina, just 1-2 points behind Santorum, for a consistent 4th place. He has yet to break 10% in Florida. If it were any other candidate, I'd say it is time to start his exit strategy. But considering his coffers, and ability to outstay his welcome, I would say expect him to come out swinging harder than the rest. But he's a wily candidate. Don't expect him to go after Romney- everyone else is doing that already. He will focus his sites on Gingrich or Santorum. He's not shooting for first place. A second or third place slot will be his victory. Again, slowly picking up delegates as he rolls along.

Ready or not, here's New Hampshire (polls for Jan 9)

(CLICK ON ALL IMAGES TO ENLARGE)

We'll start with New Hampshire, then go on to South Carolina, Florida, and the national polls.
In short, Mitt is going to win New Hampshire. The primaries are tomorrow, and not even another out of the blue Santorum surge can beat Romney now. Now granted, his lead has slipped from 21.3 to 19. Well, unless we stick to my decision to remove all PPP results from overall scores. (Because they continuously, week after week, are significantly different from all other polls, thereby questioning their audience and polling questions.) Which, by the way, if you do, changes the rankings a little bit- Romney (39.6), Paul (20.2), Santorum moves ahead of Huntsman to 11.2, with Huntsman 10.2. Gingrich is moving down in the polls, not up, but could still possibly be in competition in third place. Perry is still losing miserably.
Even if Santorum and Huntsman continue to enjoy a well-timed surge, they are only going to threaten Ron Paul, and not Romney.
Prediction-
1. Results are in by midnight Eastern time, and we're not up till 2:30 am watching CNN.
2. We'll miss Edith and Carol in Iowa.
3. Romney wins with a massive lead.
4. Ron Paul and Huntsman duke it out for second place.
5. Santorum takes fourth.
6. Gingrich blames Romney for everything.
7. Perry doesn't drop out although he really ought to.

So on to South Carolina, where suddenly everyone is convinced the "real winner" will be picked, based on the fact that all GOP nominees won in South Carolina- a point completely disproved previously.

Just one month ago Gingrich was in a 19 point lead 42 to Romney's 23. Today? Romney has the lead, while Newt is down in third, and not gaining. If Santorum takes third or fourth in New Hampshire, expect his second place scores to start dropping. Gingrich will drop even more if he has a dismal response in NH. Which means Paul, who is in fourth right now, is actually the person with the most to gain here. If he takes second in NH, he may move up as far as second in SC, as the Santorum bandwagon slows down.
Predictions-
too soon to say, other than Romney should take first, for an historical sweep of Iowa, NH, and SC. Perry and Huntsman, who have no real reason to think they can even eke it up to third place, will drop out. The real question is whether or not Gingrich will drop out.
A question that can be answered by looking forward to Florida-

Instead of just looking at the current numbers, it helps to understand the past numbers too. In a non-stump state like Florida voters go with the popular name. Gingrich had the name recognition vote for quite some time. But don't be completely fooled by the numbers, these numbers used to have Cain and Bachmann in them as well.
Also, ignore the RCP average. They are pulling in numbers all the way back to early December (again, during Cain's heydey). Only the Quinnipiac numbers should be taken too seriously. We need more polls before we can really understand Florida, and a lot is going to happen in the next two weeks. If Romney stays strong, he can take Florida. But if there are any Gingrich surprises and he does better than expected in NH or SC, he won't want to drop out if he's still holding on in FL. It looks like Paul has been pretty static in FL over the past year. If he hasn't taken first anywhere, and doesn't move up at all in FL, expect him to drop out after FL. And I doubt Huntsman and Perry will still be around by FL, or will drop out immediately thereafter.
Which brings us to the national polls, where the hopes of the future candidates all hang. And that my friends, is where things get interesting-

In NH the order goes- Romney, Paul, Huntsman. (Or Romney, Paul, Santorum if you go with my numbers.)
In SC the lineup is- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich
And FL- Romney, Gingrich Santorum.
And nationally- Romney, Santorum, Gingrich.
In other words, we aren't seeing a consistent series of front-runners. If you are a Romney supporter you can breathe a little easier, but not too easy. An 8 point national lead isn't that confident and stable. Of course, if he really does sweep all of the early states, the 8 points will skyrocket.
But if you are Gingrich and you are in second place in Florida (and all those beautiful delegates), and you have a fighting chance in SC, and nationally you are still fighting for second, when do you call it quits? Do you ride it out and hope that Romney slips up somehow? (After all, all the other front runners have slipped up so far.)
And if you are Santorum, you are just praying hard that you can hold on to your momentum and that the money keeps pouring in. But realistically you know that that doesn't happen.
And if you are Romney, you just stay the course, barely adjusting the sails.

Does South Carolina really produce the nominee 100% of the time?

South Carolina likes to pride itself on its "first in the South" status in the presidential primaries. And even likes to brag a little bit that they choose the candidate that goes on to be the nominee six out of the last six times. Is South Carolina really that in tune with the nation as a whole? Or is there a better explanation?

Let's look at their past results-

2008- John McCain won with 33% on January 19, where they and Nevada were the fourth and fifth states to hold primaries. It was the second state for McCain to win (he also took NH), and he was definitely not the frontrunner yet.

2004- George W Bush incumbent year

2000- George W. Bush won with 53% on February 19, and was 5th to hold a primary. He had already won in three other states by large margins.

1996- Bob Dole won with 45% on March 2, as the 9th to hold a primary or caucus. It was only the third state for him to win. But that was a "Super Tuesday" week where Dole won 11 more states over the next 4 days.

1992- George H.W. Bush won with 67% as a contested incumbent.

GOP Polls for week ending Dec 17, 2011

Wow, what a difference one week makes! The polls are still leaning in Gingrich's favor nationally, but his lead is definitely not a sure thing.
Quick wrap up on the polls for last week (GOP polls for week ending Dec 12). Gingrich was still on the rise, with his average lead nationally about 12 points ahead of Romney. Romney was continuing to hold on to his consistent 20%. Cain was still showing up in the numbers, and Ron Paul had moved up to about 9%. The rest of the pack showed little to no change (as always).
This week is our first official non-Cain polling week. And what a difference a week makes!

Gingrich is down 4%
Romney is ever faithful with his 22.5% (up 1.7%)
Ron Paul moved up .3%
Michele Bachmann is the surprise dark horse this week and moves up 3.2% to 4th place, putting her a full point of Rick Perry (who saw no change).
Rick Santorum stays steady at 3.5%.
And Jon Huntsman moves up from 2.5 to to 3.0, which if you think about it, is a 25% increase in supporters for him. So bravo Jon Huntsman!

The Polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, and South Carolina

After such a lengthy post about the national polls yesterday, I decided to wait a day to do the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, and take a look at the rest of the country as well.

Iowa-
Last week we saw the RCP average ranking Gingrich 26, Romney 15.8, Paul 13.6, Cain, 12.0, Bachman 7.8, Santorum 4.6, Huntsman 2.0.
Data came from polls conducted by Des Moines Register, NBC/Marist, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen Reports, and The Polling Company, gathered over November 11-30

This week the data comes from completely different sources, and from overlapping dates!

Considering the overlapping dates of this week's polls and last week's polls, I decided to make my own table, only pulling in data that covers November 29-30 (which mind you was nearly 2 weeks ago, and means Cain was still in the picture).

My numbers don't really change anything. But I really didn't like that RCP was combining polls that overlapped before Cain dropped out. My numbers all intersect two days, which theirs did not.
In short, Gingrich has Iowa locked up. Which is why the accusation in stonezine.com yesterday that the Romney camp is telling people to vote for Paul makes absolutely no sense. I didn't make this up (they did).

Why would any candidate want to tell his supporters to vote for someone else in order to avert defeat? If anything, Romney would be doing everything in his power right now to make sure he himself comes in second, and to not let Ron Paul beat him.

One thing is for sure though, the Gingrich team doesn't have the money of the Romney team. (Romney had a fundraiser in New Jersey last night that brought in $1.1 million! It rumored that Gingrich may only have $4 million total in his war chest. (Source: Chicago Tribune) That money won't last long with media buys coming up in more states.

Speaking of other states (that matter more in the long run), let's take a look at New Hampshire.

The only new poll on here is the CNN/Time poll. NBC and Rasmussen were in last week's numbers (along with a few other sources as well). And the CNN/Time poll was also taken over the days that covered the Cain drop. So again, not really indicative of what people are really thinking now. We still have Romney with a significant lead over Gingrich, and the rest of the pack. Last week's numbers, which again, covered most of the same dates, had Romney leading with 16.5. Just goes to show you how little you can trust polling. Drop some data, add some data, and tada! You can change the results!

So let's take our first look at the rest of the country, shall we?
South Carolina (primary to be held January 21, 2012)-

Gingrich is in the lead. And looking back at the polls over the past few months tells us that Cain had a stronghold there until mid-November. That support appears to have gone to Gingrich. It is interesting that Romney really maintains that 20% across the country (as I discussed yesterday). The real fight is going to be for third place between Perry, Paul, and Bachmann.

After South Carolina will be the Florida primary on January 31.

Romney has never had a strong lead in Florida, but up until the end of October, he maintained a fairly steady lead. Then Cain had his short burst of fame, and quick demise. And just like in all of the other states, that support moved over to Gingrich.
It scares me to see that Gingrich line on the graphs skyrocketing up like that. Anyone else remember the last time we saw a skyrocket candidate at the last second?
Let me remind you-

Anything look familiar there? Look at the way the McCain line (brown) just jumps up at the last minute. Remember how we all came to quickly regret McCain? He wasn't a candidate anyone felt strongly about, or wanted to support. (And then there was the Palin disaster... Oy vey. At least we dodged a bullet there.) The Gingrich rise scares me in the same way the McCain rise did. Makes you wonder if Giuliani had cared more about Iowa and New Hampshire, if things would have gone differently?

But if you look at the news today, I'm not the only one wondering if we're about to see another "Giuliani moment" among the candidates?