All the news that's fit to (re)print

So many things to say, so little time to say it all in!

Here's the big hitters for the day (in my humble opinion)-

First, I only have so much time in a day, and room in my brain, so I chose to completely ignore whatever it was that happened in Wisconsin yesterday. I hear a Republican won, and that the Washington Post has an interesting interpretation of a "close call."

California apparently doesn't want to tax their cigarettes, not even to pretend to fund cancer research. Or maybe they are just tired of getting overly taxed in that state?

Here in my home commonwealth we term limit our governors. As a result, many of them like to run for the Senate after their term expires. Former Governors Tim Kaine (D) and George Allen (R) are up against each other right now in a neck and neck race for our open Senate seat. Why does this matter? Because first, the balance of the Senate is a big deal and always will be. Second, Virginia politics and friendships are playing an interesting backstory in the Romney VP "race." If current Gov McDonnell were to become the next VP, it would be a very different representation for VA in the Senate if Allen were to win over Kaine. Like I've said before, all politics are local.

(And that being said, I really can't wait for the primaries in VA to be over with next week, so that the incessant robocalls on behalf of Rep Goodlatte will stop! (can't they at least pronounce his name correctly!?))

Has anyone else noticed a resurgence of Former President Bill Clinton showing up in political news lately? My spidey sense thinks something is up. 

Just a few things to think about!

Never ask if a Republican is enthusiastic. It doesn't work that way.

Six months from tomorrow we will finally be at election day!

Will it be Mitt Romney or Barack Obama wearing the champion belt that day?

If the elections were held today, the answer would be- either Romney or Obama.

Swing states are more important than ever before. A USA Today/Gallup poll of 12 currently proclaimed swing states—Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, shows President Obama over Romney with 47 percent to 45 percent. 

A separate poll conducted by Politico and George Washington University found Romney and Obama statistically tied among likely voters nationwide, 48 percent to 47 percent—well within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error.

Who do the swing state voters think would be better for the economy? (Gallup poll)

Romney 60%

Obama 52% 

(Yes, I know the numbers don't make sense written that way. Go look at the poll yourself.)

But who do people "like" more? And we don't mean like in the Facebook sense of the word. 

58% think Obama is more likable

31% think Romney is. 

Now here's a very interesting number, that all the talking heads will try to spin their own special way. And yes, I am about to spin it my own personal way too. 

Which fan base is more enthusiastic about the November election?

Obama supporters are "extremely" or "very enthusiastic" - 55%

Romney supporters are only 46% that excited. 

Now please pause while I explain why this is one of the stupidest poll questions and numbers ever. In fact, it is so stupid I can't believe Gallup put it out there. What were they thinking?

You can't ask Republicans if they are enthusiastic about an election. Republicans fear elections, because they all think the world is going to hell in a hand basket. If you ask them what they think about the upcoming elections, they groan and whine and talk about the evils penetrating the earth in the form of liberal Democrats taking over the planet. So no, they are not enthusiastic. They are terrified. Personally, I can't believe so many of them did say they are excited. It's just so un-Republican of them.

Hat Trick Romney! So now what?

Mitt Romney waves to supporters in Wisconsin. Linked to source: newsobserver.com

Mitt Romney made a clean sweep last night and won in Maryland, DC, and Wisconsin for a grand total of ---

Romney 654
Santorum 270
Gingrich 137
Paul 71

So now what?
Will his challengers go quietly into the night?
Of course not.
Next up we have Pennsylvania, Rick Santorum's sort of stomping grounds. He was their Senator and Congressman for several terms, but really he lives in Virginia, and he was born in VA as well. It is also the state the soundly kicked his butt and didn't re-elect him in 2006.  But nonetheless, he ain't dropping out of this race until he's gone back to PA. In his "concession" speech last night he said we're at "half-time" in this race. If by half-time he means he now has less than half of the delegates Romney has, I guess that makes some sense.
So other than being Santorum's home state, what does Pennsylvania have to offer?
72 proportional delegates.
The primary is on April 24 along with Connecticut (28 proportional), Delaware (17 winner takes all), New York (95 proportional), and Rhode Island (19 proportional). Obviously, Pennsylvania isn't even the most profitable state that day, with NY on the calendar as well. The only reason it is a big deal is because it is Santorum's "home."
The PA polls are all over the place, thanks to super old data in them, but they do consistently show Santorum ahead.

click image to enlarge

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/rick-santorum-pennsylvania-polls-showing-close-race-are-work-of-democratic-hack/2012/04/01/gIQA7yE2oS_blog.html

This second screen shot might be one of my favorite Santorum quotes ever. He's really showing his colors lately that when he doesn't like something someone says or does, he insults them. "...Democratic hack... has probably singularly gotten more polls wrong..."  And what was the hack's big offense? He only shows Santorum leading by 2 points. Heaven forbid. It's almost as if Santorum was winning in every single state, and the front runner, and suddenly somebody dared to say he has some competition.
Meanwhile, talking about really old data, check out the Real Clear Politics offerings for New York-

Click image to enlarge. Screen grab from Real Clear Politics.

Yes, that would be data from nearly a full year ago in the mix. And the most recent data is from February. So yeah, that's not too helpful either. And things aren't much more useful for CT and DE polling either.

On Wisconsin, On Wisconsin!

Tuesday will bring us the Wisconsin winner-take-all primary. The cheese heads have 42 delegates to offer the winner. Maryland (37 proportional) and DC (19 winner take all) will also hold primaries, but so far, no one seems to have noticed.

Things are looking pretty good for Romney in Wisconsin. He's holding on to a fairly stable lead there. He is also leading in MD and DC. If Romney can walk away with all 42 + 19 on Tuesday, and let's just say half of Maryland, for a grand total of 79 (we'll round up), and we'll be generous and give Santorum 17, that would bring the totals to---

Romney- 645

Santorum - 280

Gingrich - 140

That would put Romney well more than half way to the 1,140 needed to take the nomination. And puts Santorum just shy of half way to the half way point of getting the necessary delegates. 

Santorum still thinks he has enough friends in Pennsylvania to win there. Pennsylvania's primary is in 3 more weeks, and has 72 proportional delegates. If by some miracle he takes a clean sweep of the state, and gets all 72 delegates for himself, for a grand total of 355, he would only be 785 delegates short of the nomination. (Or in other words, he still wouldn't be close to winning.) 

Last week Gingrich laid off his staff and admitted he has no hope. But he also reminded everyone just how "grandiose" he can be by comparing himself to the University of Kansas men's basketball team, which squeaked past Ohio State on Saturday night to set up Monday's NCAA tournament championship showdown with top-seeded Kentucky.

After tomorrow, we the people and the media, get a nice little three week break. April 24 will bring us Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island.

Who's the Fool Now?

All day I have been looking for the perfect April Fools prank to pull on my visiting mother. Alas, I have found none. Which is probably for the best since the closest I came to pulling a prank on her was telling her today was April 3 (her wedding anniversary), when she asked what day it is. And when I tried to correct her and tell her it is April Fools, she didn't hear me.
CNN may have inadvertently fooled me though. For a few hours their story titles said, "Ryan: I really misspoke." followed by "Romney gets punk'd." For a second I thought it was going to say Paul Ryan punk'd Romney with his endorsement. But no, that wasn't it at all. And sadly, I didn't think to do a screen grab while I had the chance, and now it is gone.

But at least someone did get to play the April Fool today, and that was Romney. While stumping in Wisconsin, his staff pulled a pretty good one on him. They set up an event room identical to the room where the candidate was to meet with voters later in the day, complete with signage, drapes, etc. They even managed to pull off canned applause. 

Two Romney surrogates were in on the joke. Rep. Paul Ryan and Sen. Ron Johnson played their parts well, doing the intro, and walking out with Romney, per the usual campaign custom. The staff even played Kid Rock's "Born Free." Romney had no reason to suspect anything. 

The key detail may also be that the staff warned him that in spite of his good numbers in Wisconsin, the event had a poor turnout, and the room wouldn't be packed.

So Romney walks out to loud applause, and a wailing guitar, and the room is empty.

"I go in there, and it's completely empty. There's nobody there!" Romney giggled, as he later recounted the prank to his audience at the real event. "I thought, oh boy, this is going to look really bad on the evening news, let me tell ya."

The only thing the campaign didn't pull off? No press cameras to catch the priceless moment. 

"They turned me into the April Fool this morning! This is known as forgive, but remember. I tell ya, we're going to remember this." Romney laughed later.